A harsher Franco-Prussian peace?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

What if the Germans decided to levy an even greater indemnity on France, convinced that the French could afford it, while taking some of her colonies in addition to Alsace-Lorraine? What does that mean for the post war world, the race for colonies and French recovery? Does this butterfly away WW1?
 
Not really; in fact France will be itching for revenge even more.

The reason Bismarck conducted relatively light peace treaties for Austria and France (in fact, he opposed the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine at first) was to make sure the balance of powers was not too disrupted and that Imperial Germany was not a threat to it.
 
Not really; in fact France will be itching for revenge even more.

The reason Bismarck conducted relatively light peace treaties for Austria and France (in fact, he opposed the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine at first) was to make sure the balance of powers was not too disrupted and that Imperial Germany was not a threat to it.

Very true.

Now you could go the French-WWI plan and weaken France in such a way that it never becomes a threat again. But I think nobody in the 19th century would try that, and even if the other powers would intervene.


To conclude, it's unlikely but you could have a harsher peace, with some colonies (probably only some trading outposts, which Germany at the time has no real use of, obviously there'll be nothing from america) and additional territories in Europe (say Belfort, Briey...). But that harsher peace must not disturb the balance of powers, thus France survives as a great power, and Germany cannot gain hegemony from them. And of course France is even more of an enemy ITTL.

To butterfly away WWI, avoid annexation of Alsace-Lorraine - or make it an independent buffer state.
 
Very true.

Now you could go the French-WWI plan and weaken France in such a way that it never becomes a threat again. But I think nobody in the 19th century would try that, and even if the other powers would intervene.


To conclude, it's unlikely but you could have a harsher peace, with some colonies (probably only some trading outposts, which Germany at the time has no real use of, obviously there'll be nothing from america) and additional territories in Europe (say Belfort, Briey...). But that harsher peace must not disturb the balance of powers, thus France survives as a great power, and Germany cannot gain hegemony from them. And of course France is even more of an enemy ITTL.

To butterfly away WWI, avoid annexation of Alsace-Lorraine - or make it an independent buffer state.

Even Bismarck in OTL(because he need to bought the nationalist at the same time at a better defensive border) Demand only the Annexation of Eltass as a 'territory'(before the idea of the Reichlander), and some minor money compentasion... but the Republica Goverment cry.... NOOO. and they think they still can war the war... with the history know results...

In general with the same Franco-Prussia War... you have almost automatically the reason of WW1(three antagonicall and rival Continental great powers and maritime great power who suffer of paranoia), and that will be Harsh to butterfly away.

I think an Harsher Peace when with the benefit of Hindsight, Bismarck Annex the Whole of Lothrigen(how do you say, Verdun in German) can give better defensive position to the Reich in the alternate *Battle of the Frontiers.

And about Colonies.. Bismarck never loved it, only as a way to win influece and keep quiet some sector, in fact the french were willing to trade away the Whole Indochina Plus Congo(+ unofficial but credible, a promise to german conquer the Belgian Congo) in Exchange of Eltass-Moselle, but Bismarck Say: NEIN
 
And about Colonies.. Bismarck never loved it, only as a way to win influece and keep quiet some sector, in fact the french were willing to trade away the Whole Indochina Plus Congo(+ unofficial but credible, a promise to german conquer the Belgian Congo) in Exchange of Eltass-Moselle, but Bismarck Say: NEIN

Maybe he decides to offload some of the colonies to various others, for the right price, of course. ;)

*cue British envoys knocking at his door, waving huge piles of cash* :D:D:D:D:D
 

Deleted member 1487

What about the larger indemnity? Wouldn't that extra money make it harder for France to recover and make Germany more wealthy/stronger in the long run?
 
The indemnity already was quite large, having a German Empire with decent portion of the French colonial empire to start their own would be interesting; but as already mentioned Bismarck wasn't into that.

BTW the old German name for Verdun is Wirten (later Verden (an der Maas) was also used).
 
A greater indemnity, especially spaced out over a greater number of years would make the Third Republic even more unstable than it was IOTL. The Third Republic owed the Kaiser 5 billion francs after the war, which were paid off after only about two years, sooner than expected. If the sum had been closer to 5 or 7 billion francs, spread over a decade or more, you would have had German troops occupying parts of France for a significant amount of time.

The longer the average Frenchman on the street has to come in contact with German soldiers on a daily basis, and the more he associates his government that he pays taxes to as tributary to that power, the greater the resentment he will feel towards his foreign foe, but just as importantly, his own government. The Third Republic was seen by many as a temporary creation, and its legitimacy would probably have been severely undermined if it was forced to allow German troops on French soil, and pay the Germans for the long term.

A collapse of the Third Republic becomes more likely in my mind if the Germans press them hard enough. What follows is hard to tell. Anything from an Orleanist restoration to a radical workers republic is in the cards. What is unchanged is the regime's hostility towards Germany. Of course a radical or reactionary French state may have a hard time forming alliances against Germany like the Entente Cordial, and especially since could always find themselves humiliated in a colonial war against Japan, or even Great Britain.
 
A greater indemnity, especially spaced out over a greater number of years would make the Third Republic even more unstable than it was IOTL. The Third Republic owed the Kaiser 5 billion francs after the war, which were paid off after only about two years, sooner than expected. If the sum had been closer to 5 or 7 billion francs, spread over a decade or more, you would have had German troops occupying parts of France for a significant amount of time.

The longer the average Frenchman on the street has to come in contact with German soldiers on a daily basis, and the more he associates his government that he pays taxes to as tributary to that power, the greater the resentment he will feel towards his foreign foe, but just as importantly, his own government. The Third Republic was seen by many as a temporary creation, and its legitimacy would probably have been severely undermined if it was forced to allow German troops on French soil, and pay the Germans for the long term.

A collapse of the Third Republic becomes more likely in my mind if the Germans press them hard enough. What follows is hard to tell. Anything from an Orleanist restoration to a radical workers republic is in the cards. What is unchanged is the regime's hostility towards Germany. Of course a radical or reactionary French state may have a hard time forming alliances against Germany like the Entente Cordial, and especially since could always find themselves humiliated in a colonial war against Japan, or even Great Britain.

If it ends up teetering towards extremism then Bismarck's plan of long-term diplomatic isolation will come to being, unless something happens (like, say, to Austria or Russia) that would put them in similar circumstances.
 

Eurofed

Banned
It is not directly done by Germany, but a quite plausible way to make the peace settlement harsher for France is to make Italy join Prussia/Germany's side in the F-P war.

This would surely cost France the loss of Nice, Savoy, Corsica, and future colonization of Tunisia, and would make the war indemnity considerably larger.
 
The indemnity already was damn high.

A more interesting POD would be: WI the Germans had the iron ore of Longwy-Briey? And/or the fortress of Belfort?
 
It is not directly done by Germany, but a quite plausible way to make the peace settlement harsher for France is to make Italy join Prussia/Germany's side in the F-P war.

This would surely cost France the loss of Nice, Savoy, Corsica, and future colonization of Tunisia, and would make the war indemnity considerably larger.

The "rights" to Tunisia were only decided by secret protocols at Berlin, so in 1870/71 any Italian victory over France is only going to improve the strategic situation with regard to possible eventual absorption of Tunis into the Italian sphere of inflience

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Eurofed

Banned
The "rights" to Tunisia were only decided by secret protocols at Berlin, so in 1870/71 any Italian victory over France is only going to improve the strategic situation with regard to possible eventual absorption of Tunis into the Italian sphere of inflience

What I meant to say is that France would surely be forced to recognize Tunisia as part of the Italian sphere of influence in the peace treaty.
 

Eurofed

Banned
The Ottoman Empire and Great Britain would probably complain!

Quite doubtful. It would be a bilateral Italo-French treaty, Paris recognizing Italian interests in Tunisia. It does not bind third parties. I agree that Italy would gain the powers' assent to its colonization of Tunisia in TTL Berlin equivalent.
 
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There were some, most likely after the Treaty of Frankfurt, that complained that Bismarck should have asked for French Indo-China. The newly minted Imperial Navy received some of the indemity funds and that helped spark the first expansion plans.
 
There were some, most likely after the Treaty of Frankfurt, that complained that Bismarck should have asked for French Indo-China. The newly minted Imperial Navy received some of the indemity funds and that helped spark the first expansion plans.

That is True.... wow, as typical... Source Please.

How an Early German Indochina will Impact in the Colonial Balance of Power of Asia Pacific(I'm Still think than Thailand will be made a buffer state), and how that going to impact in the navy?(having early colonies and with bismarck responsable... the Naval Strategy and politics will have aradical change)
 
That is True.... wow, as typical... Source Please.

How an Early German Indochina will Impact in the Colonial Balance of Power of Asia Pacific(I'm Still think than Thailand will be made a buffer state), and how that going to impact in the navy?(having early colonies and with bismarck responsable... the Naval Strategy and politics will have aradical change)

Take a look for:

German Naval Strategy, 1856-1888: Forerunners to Tirpitz by David Olivier. It may be a little hard to locate. Its part of Routledge's Cass Series: Naval Policy and History.

An excellent little book that explains a lot about 19th century Prussian and German naval policy, particularly the division in the officer corps into two different schools: cruiser/trade warfare vs. battlefleet. Olivier makes a good point in that the Prussians developed their own line of trade warfare before the French suggested the jeune ecole.

Also Napoleon III tried to come to an accommodation with the Prussian in that they would seize Hanover and then ally with France in a naval alliance against Britain. The Prussians turned him down.
 
Take a look for:

German Naval Strategy, 1856-1888: Forerunners to Tirpitz by David Olivier. It may be a little hard to locate. Its part of Routledge's Cass Series: Naval Policy and History.

An excellent little book that explains a lot about 19th century Prussian and German naval policy, particularly the division in the officer corps into two different schools: cruiser/trade warfare vs. battlefleet. Olivier makes a good point in that the Prussians developed their own line of trade warfare before the French suggested the jeune ecole.

Also Napoleon III tried to come to an accommodation with the Prussian in that they would seize Hanover and then ally with France in a naval alliance against Britain. The Prussians turned him down.

Interesting that book... but in a Spanish Speaking Country find that will be hard.

In general with that comment, is probable than with Bismarck the Cruise/Trade Warfare will won the upperhand(are less expensive are less politically 'shocking' as Battleflet, but anything will anger Britain anyway;)), and with very long range to reach Indochina...

Yes Bismarck should have demand that colony
 
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