Dear All,
I am busy reading Clive Ponting's book "Thirteen days", the period from the AH ultimatum to the start of it all.
It is focused on the diplomatic end of it, the telegrams going forth and the actions of the different governments around the globe. A lot of facts and a good read.
Facts: France and Germany had been at peace for 43 years. AH for nearly 50. Britain and Russia had not been at war for 60 years.
All "crisis" were addressed and solved by the Great Powers.
Despite French feelings about the lost provinces, it was not enough in itself to cause a war.
Germany and Britain were working well together.
So, it is back to the Balkans. The rise of Russian infuence, Pan-slav movements, Ottoman empie falling apart, etc.
AH could foresee that their status as world power was going and were determined to risk a European war just to prove a point.
Germany had issue the "blank cheque" and had left it to AH to take action.
Now, if it is correct that Germany and AH had decided that a reckoning with Russia had to come at some point, then this occasion would be as good as any.
But was it really that simple?
AH had an alliance with Italy (3-kaizer-bund), but were trying to "square the circle" creating an alliance with both Roumania and Bulgaria at the same time (really!)
Russia did not have a pact or alliance with Serbia.
Germany (and the rest of the world ) had expected an immediate action from AH. It could be "wipe-out", occupation of Serbia, partioning it out to all neighbors, etc. As long as it would be fast, before Russia could react.
Instead AH decided to mobilise some forces, which was hampered as it happened during the "harvest leave" for the army (sic!).
Serbia's army was occupied in Macedonia, its latest conquest. And was not particular big anyway
OK, the question is:
1) Could AH have invaded Serbia with its forces at that time without mobilising any additional forces and have settled the matter.
2) Was it more of a police action than a military action?
3) What were the forces involved from both sides (I can't find anything)
4) If it had been over in 2-3 days, would Russia even have had a chance to get involved?
5) Would WWI have awaited another opportuntiy?
Ivan