A Greater Pacific War 1914 - ????

I was wondering if it would be possible for Japan to declare war on the British Empire in 1914, turning down their request for assistance against German ships operating in Pacific waters.

And if the Japanese do declare war on the British Empire would it be possible for them to defeat the Pacific Squadron and take Hong Kong?

Would the ANZAC be called up to counter the Japanese threat? How would this affect the rebellions in India, which Japanese soldiers helped quell?

In 1917, when the United States enters the war on the side of the Entente Powers, would we see a bloodier war in the pacific as the Japanese and the Americans fought for supremacy?

After this is all said and done would we see a stronger United States with joint control of the Pacific with the British Empire?

For your consideration.
 
It would be fairly narrow seas in which the Japanese would fight the British, French and Russians. The US occupies the Philippines and the Dutch control the East Indies and both are neutral. The wild card is China and its most likely not going to be favouring the Japanese. As long as the British control Singapore the Japanese are fairly contained. The only real outlet will be cruiser actions in the vast Pacific Ocean.

The Japanese battlefleet is large, but the bulk are predreadnoughts. Action is limited since some force must be held to watch Vladivostock.
 
If the Japanese wait until 1915, after their last British built capital ship is delivered, they could easily take the British and French possesions in the Pacific. By 1915 the British and French were very busy elsewhere, I doubt they could muster a naval force powerful enough to defeat the IJN, the vital precourser to a reconquest of their colonies, without exposing themselves to great risk in home waters.
 

CalBear

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The IJN gets curb stomped.

The IJN has TWO Modern BB, one modern BC (the very nice Kongo), 4 2nd class BB (effectively armored cruisers with "all big gun" main battery), 14 pre-dreds (including 5 Russian war prizes and 4 coastal defense ships), 8 armored cruisers, and 6 light cruisers. The IJN had 5 modern submarines. They had no coaling stations south of Formosa.

The USN had TEN Dreadnought type BB (including two with 14" guns), 16 pre-dreads (11 of which were really open water worthy, the other being closer to coastal defense ships), 12 armored cruisers, 3 light cruisers, and 20+ "modern" subs. The USN had coaling stations/arrangement across most of the planet & in the scenario under discussion would have access to the impressive RN coaling network. The U.S. had been worried about Japan since the minute it came into possession of the Philippines and some sort of confrontation had mostly been avoided by the existence of the Anglo/Japan Defense Treaty. Take that Treaty away & have the Japanese getting seriously aggressive and all bets are off. The chances of the U.S. going after the Japanese, or at least denying them easy passage and coaling are extremely high.

The RN, of course, is the RN. It can peel off 3 early dreadnoughts, 20 pre-dred BB, 15 Armored Cruisers, and sufficient escorts and still have a close to 2-1 advantage over the HSF (27 capital ships to 16).

Of course the modern Dreadnought style ships are massively superior to the pre-dreads so the advantage to a Anglo-American force is even greater than the raw numbers appear (as great as 12-3, although more likely 7-3), while the danger presented by USN subs out of Manila Bay is considerable.


Good news is that this might head off the Pacific portion of WW II. If the Japanese are denied the Mandates and the other bits of the German Pacific Empire they have a far weaker position to start any conflict. They will also have a MUCH smaller fleet since their WW I ships will have been either lost or interned and the end of war treaty will undoubtedly have a great deal to say regarding IJN strength. Japan would also have experienced something that it hadn't in several centuries, defeat on a battlefield. That, by itself, might be enough to gut the militarize that was such a huge factor in the 1930s.
 
US gets into the war...

CalBear,
Japan gets curbstomped IF the US gets into the war. But, would it? And when?

Before then, Japan can do a LOT of damage with cruisers. Just the Enden did huge amounts of harm..now add a few more cruisers...and throw in the Kongo for good measure?

Japan being in the war might even encourage American participation early. Allied with Britain, Japan was honoring a treaty, and stood to gain only minor Pacific islands. Betraying a treaty, perhaps behind a fig leaf, and standing to gain more major territories, shows Japan as more of a "Yellow Peril" to the USA.
 
CalBear,
Japan gets curbstomped IF the US gets into the war. But, would it? And when?

Before then, Japan can do a LOT of damage with cruisers. Just the Enden did huge amounts of harm..now add a few more cruisers...and throw in the Kongo for good measure?

Japan being in the war might even encourage American participation early. Allied with Britain, Japan was honoring a treaty, and stood to gain only minor Pacific islands. Betraying a treaty, perhaps behind a fig leaf, and standing to gain more major territories, shows Japan as more of a "Yellow Peril" to the USA.


Japan is really more interested in China at this point, it is during this preoccupation of the Entente powers that it enforced the 21 demands. Going further than that could bring in US entry much sooner as they do have interests in China they want to protect. Besides, there is the Anglo-Japanese treaty to consider...Japan entering as a CP power would be doutful unless it was specifically focused only against say Russia in Manchuria.
 
The POD would have to be a failed Anglo-Japanese Treaty which prompts the Japanese to strike for British Colonies. But would they?

Once they do (if they do) they will undoubtedly go for Dutch colonies, must likely fighting against some ANZAC soldiers along the way (they might as well meet them in the British colonies as well).

The United States is called upon by Britain to help, and they get turned down. Its not until the Japanese threaten the Philippines that the United States declares war.

Army and Marine camps spring up on the West Coast and an adventurous plan to expands the navy is taken on. Isolationists are punched in the face as President Wilson realizes that he cannot hold the country out of a war anymore.

By 1917 you have the Japanese and the Americans at the pinnacle of their war in the Pacific. While the war in Europe is close to wrapping up with only minor American influence.

Japan Wins
The Japanese become the undeniable masters of the Pacific Ocean. They slowly begin their conquest of China and may even bash heads with Russia (They are in a civil war). I do not know where Australia would fit into this.

United States Wins
The United States becomes the undeniable master of the Pacific. Japan is forced to cut down on its navy and its army. China rises under a democratic government. American, Dutch, and British colonies grow larger.
 
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