A French succession crisis in the early 19th century

The Avenger

Banned
What if Louis-Philippe (later King of France between 1830 and 1848 in our TL) would have died young and childless just like his two brothers did, and in addition to this, Henri, Comte de Chambord ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henri,_Count_of_Chambord ) would have been born a girl?

What this would have meant is that the French monarchy would have had a serious succession crisis in the early 19th century. In 1825, the line of succession to the French throne would have looked like this in this TL:

French King Charles X (born 1757, aged 67-68)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Louis Antoine, Duke of Angouleme (born 1775, aged 49-50)
2. Louis Henri, Prince of Conde (born 1756, aged 68-69)

What would the French government have done in response to this? Would it have allowed the Spanish Bourbons to succeed to the French throne? Would it have repealed the Salic Law? Would it have done something else?

Thoughts?
 
What if Louis-Philippe (later King of France between 1830 and 1848 in our TL) would have died young and childless just like his two brothers did, and in addition to this, Henri, Comte de Chambord ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henri,_Count_of_Chambord ) would have been born a girl?

What this would have meant is that the French monarchy would have had a serious succession crisis in the early 19th century. In 1825, the line of succession to the French throne would have looked like this in this TL:

French King Charles X (born 1757, aged 67-68)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Louis Antoine, Duke of Angouleme (born 1775, aged 49-50)
2. Louis Henri, Prince of Conde (born 1756, aged 68-69)

What would the French government have done in response to this? Would it have allowed the Spanish Bourbons to succeed to the French throne? Would it have repealed the Salic Law? Would it have done something else?

Thoughts?

The Salic law would have been maintained. So my guess is that this would bring a convenient solution to the Spanish crisis : it could avoid the carlist wars, Don Carlos becoming king of France as the elder male on the senior line of the Spanish Bourbons.
 
To start off, depending on when Louis Philippe dies in this scenario, this might actually have repercussions before the restoration of the Monarchy. His first child was born in 1810... So he has to die before that point. This already could have consequences, because at that point Napoleon is still Emperor and the monarchy isn't restored. Which ones though would need a bit more research on my part before I could give you a clear answer.

Then, if you add Henri de Chambord being born a girl, this actually means that the Restoration could take a huge blow after the assassination of the Duke of Berry in 1820: by that point it would look like the Bourbons are dying out and that they have no clear successor under Salic Law after the Condés... And going back to the Capetian family tree means going back to ancestor further than Saint Louis... Louis XVIII might just resort himself to have Salic Law abolished so he can extend the number of available heirs.

There comes a third problem: how do you save the monarchy by this point? Charles X is still bound to inherit the crown at some point and he's not exactly open-minded nor exactly a liberal... In fact, it's because he tried so hard to go back to the Monarchy as it was before the Revolution that 1830 happened. Even if Louis XVIII decides to repel Salic Law, Charles X could still be considered his legal heir out of proximity of blood... And the first female candidate to counter that is Madame Royale, daughter of Louis XVI, who probably could be as much if not even more reactionnary than her uncle (which is quite understandable given her past...).

The most likely outcome I see out of this is that the 1830 Revolution results in a Second Republic: Charles X (or Madame Royale if Salic Law is abolished) doesn't have the skill nor the support to keep his throne, especially if his reign is similar to OTL. And without Louis-Philippe, Liberal Monarchists might lack a clear candidate to avoid a Second Republic.

That brings the question of how the rest of Europe would react to France becoming a Republic again. They didn't react in 1848 but 1848 was quite a busy year for the main European powers. The context in 1830 could see them decide intervention is necessary... Which could yield interesting results. There is also the question of what Bonapartists would do but I'm not sure they had the strength and support necessary to put Napoleon II on the throne...

In regards to what the French Royal family would do if it didn't repeal Salic Law, then I'm probably going to have to agree with Matteo: they'd probably have a Spanish Bourbon declared heir. That's what die-hard legitimists ended up doing OTL. That said, the move would most likely erode Monarchical support even further.
 
The Salic law would have been maintained. So my guess is that this would bring a convenient solution to the Spanish crisis : it could avoid the carlist wars, Don Carlos becoming king of France as the elder male on the senior line of the Spanish Bourbons.
Can’t see him lasting long in France.
 
Can’t see him lasting long in France.

It depends on how he runs troubled situations. Louis XVI, Charles X and Louis-Philip I did not lose their throne because they were conservatives that opposed liberal revolutionaries but because they refused to order the use of force to crush sedition.

So Don Carlos, who did not hesitate to resort to armed forces to have his positions prevail could successfully go through the revolutionary times of he is clever enough to agree to some democratic and social measures.
 
So Don Carlos, who did not hesitate to resort to armed forces to have his positions prevail could successfully go through the revolutionary times of he is clever enough to agree to some democratic and social measures.

Not happening. Maybe if a less reactionary monarch were the male Bourbon candidate (say, if Isabella was male) but Carlos is not your man.
 
Since Louis XVIII’s wife Marie Joséphine of Savoy had died in 1810, we can have him remarry before the Restoration. Should the child be a girl, we could have Louis XVIII propose that the Chamber of Deputies abolish the Salic Law (Louis XVIII foresaw how the potential reigns of Charles X and Don Carlos would end and wanted to avoid that scenario at any cost). Assuming Louis XVIII manages to amend the succession and his daughter (we can call her Marie) becomes Queen, she would in a position analogous to Louis Phillippe in OTL since the Legitimists will favor the Artois line (OTL Charles X and his descendants). Marie would also need a husband who’s moderate and would mostly stay out of politics.
 

The Avenger

Banned
To start off, depending on when Louis Philippe dies in this scenario, this might actually have repercussions before the restoration of the Monarchy. His first child was born in 1810... So he has to die before that point. This already could have consequences, because at that point Napoleon is still Emperor and the monarchy isn't restored. Which ones though would need a bit more research on my part before I could give you a clear answer.

Then, if you add Henri de Chambord being born a girl, this actually means that the Restoration could take a huge blow after the assassination of the Duke of Berry in 1820: by that point it would look like the Bourbons are dying out and that they have no clear successor under Salic Law after the Condés... And going back to the Capetian family tree means going back to ancestor further than Saint Louis... Louis XVIII might just resort himself to have Salic Law abolished so he can extend the number of available heirs.

There comes a third problem: how do you save the monarchy by this point? Charles X is still bound to inherit the crown at some point and he's not exactly open-minded nor exactly a liberal... In fact, it's because he tried so hard to go back to the Monarchy as it was before the Revolution that 1830 happened. Even if Louis XVIII decides to repel Salic Law, Charles X could still be considered his legal heir out of proximity of blood... And the first female candidate to counter that is Madame Royale, daughter of Louis XVI, who probably could be as much if not even more reactionnary than her uncle (which is quite understandable given her past...).

The most likely outcome I see out of this is that the 1830 Revolution results in a Second Republic: Charles X (or Madame Royale if Salic Law is abolished) doesn't have the skill nor the support to keep his throne, especially if his reign is similar to OTL. And without Louis-Philippe, Liberal Monarchists might lack a clear candidate to avoid a Second Republic.

That brings the question of how the rest of Europe would react to France becoming a Republic again. They didn't react in 1848 but 1848 was quite a busy year for the main European powers. The context in 1830 could see them decide intervention is necessary... Which could yield interesting results. There is also the question of what Bonapartists would do but I'm not sure they had the strength and support necessary to put Napoleon II on the throne...

In regards to what the French Royal family would do if it didn't repeal Salic Law, then I'm probably going to have to agree with Matteo: they'd probably have a Spanish Bourbon declared heir. That's what die-hard legitimists ended up doing OTL. That said, the move would most likely erode Monarchical support even further.
Are they going to pick the seniormost Spanish Bourbon, or simply the one they like the most?

Also, if the Spanish Bourbons are unacceptable to them, could they try installing someone from the illegitimate Capetian branch of Bourbon-Busset as the new French King instead?

In addition to this, if other European powers intervene in order to crush a French republic in 1830, who exactly are they going to put in power in France? Given their monarchist inclinations, they'd have to find some monarch for this role--a Spanish Bourbon, perhaps?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Since Louis XVIII’s wife Marie Joséphine of Savoy had died in 1810, we can have him remarry before the Restoration. Should the child be a girl, we could have Louis XVIII propose that the Chamber of Deputies abolish the Salic Law (Louis XVIII foresaw how the potential reigns of Charles X and Don Carlos would end and wanted to avoid that scenario at any cost). Assuming Louis XVIII manages to amend the succession and his daughter (we can call her Marie) becomes Queen, she would in a position analogous to Louis Phillippe in OTL since the Legitimists will favor the Artois line (OTL Charles X and his descendants). Marie would also need a husband who’s moderate and would mostly stay out of politics.
Why didn't Louis XVIII remarry in our TL?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Not happening. Maybe if a less reactionary monarch were the male Bourbon candidate (say, if Isabella was male) but Carlos is not your man.
You want another Bourbon? Fine--see who was the head of the Bourbon-Busset family back then.

Of course, the Bourbon-Busset are of illegitimate Capetian descent, but then again, so are the Portuguese monarchs after the 1380s.
 

The Avenger

Banned
By the Treaty of Montmartre in 1662, the House of Lorraine was named as next in line should the Bourbons die out. And by the 19th century, the only extant branch of the House of Lorraine were the Holy Roman/Austrian emperors. So that would mean either a son of HRE Leopold II (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopold_II,_Holy_Roman_Emperor#Issue) or a son, or grandson, of Austrian Emperor Francis I.
Was this treaty--or at least this provision of this treaty--still in place in the early 19th century?

Also, would this fly with the French in the 19th century?
 
Because they're illegitimate?
Correct, France isn't Portugal, it didn't just gain independents, and its got a "bigger head"

Was this treaty--or at least this provision of this treaty--still in place in the early 19th century?

Also, would this fly with the French in the 19th century?
Not sure the conditions so won't comment on that, but France would find every loop hole to avoid it. Number 1 probably being that renouncing the Crown of France was not allowed during the Ancien Régime. And the condition was succession in Spain was supposed to change to Salic Law so if Isabella II still becomes queen the renunciation would be null and void even if it was legal. Leaving the senior Spanish Bourbon the only option.
 
Since Louis XVIII’s wife Marie Joséphine of Savoy had died in 1810, we can have him remarry before the Restoration. Should the child be a girl, we could have Louis XVIII propose that the Chamber of Deputies abolish the Salic Law (Louis XVIII foresaw how the potential reigns of Charles X and Don Carlos would end and wanted to avoid that scenario at any cost). Assuming Louis XVIII manages to amend the succession and his daughter (we can call her Marie) becomes Queen, she would in a position analogous to Louis Phillippe in OTL since the Legitimists will favor the Artois line (OTL Charles X and his descendants). Marie would also need a husband who’s moderate and would mostly stay out of politics.

Louis XVIII was sexually impotent. Most historians agree on this.

So he won’t remarry.

But if you made him not impotent and have but a girl, I still don’t buy the abolition of the Salic Law.

Ferdinand VII was able to abolish the Salic Law because it had been quite recently imported from France by the Bourbons (barely a century).

At that time, the Salic Law had been the succession law to the throne of France for 5 centuries. It was so deeply entrenched in people’s minds that Napoleon also established succession rules in favor of the male lines.
 
@Matteo While Salic Law has been the succession law of France since the 14th Century, TTL Louis XVIII (if he remarries and has a daughter) has the choice of either his younger brother the Count of Artois (Charles X of OTL) or Don Carlos (younger brother of Fernando VII of Spain) as a successor with the extinction of both the Bourbon-Orleans and Bourbon-Conde branches in this scenario. Louis XVIII being the realist that he is knows full well that a reign of either Artois (Charles X of OTL) or a cadet branch of the Bourbon-Anjou line (Don Carlos) will only end in revolution. While Artois’ son (Louis XIX of OTL) was a moderate and his grandson (Court of Chambord of OTL) could potentially be taught to be at least moderate, the mere existence of Artois renders those two options unavailable. The Chamber of Deputies can easily back Louis XVIII in amending the succession if it means avoiding either Charles X or a foreigner who will only drag France into a potential succession war over the Spanish throne (Don Carlos).
 
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Louis XVI, Charles X and Louis-Philip I did not lose their throne because they were conservatives that opposed liberal revolutionaries but because they refused to order the use of force to crush sedition.
While Louis XVI did lose his throne because he refused to use force when he got the chance, that's definitely not the case of Charles X...

The 1830 Revolution started with riots and barricades built in Paris and the army, under the commande of Marshall Marmont, was sent to restored order. The situation degenerated so much Charles X even declared Paris in a State of Siege. Shots were fired and fighting did happen throughout the city for three days (hence the nickname of Trois Glorieuses given to the 1830 Revolution). So Charles X didn't fail because he refused to use force, he failed because he horribly handled the situation... Which isn't surprising because the man was highly reactionnar and with very little aptitude at compromising...
Since Louis XVIII’s wife Marie Joséphine of Savoy had died in 1810, we can have him remarry before the Restoration. Should the child be a girl, we could have Louis XVIII propose that the Chamber of Deputies abolish the Salic Law (Louis XVIII foresaw how the potential reigns of Charles X and Don Carlos would end and wanted to avoid that scenario at any cost). Assuming Louis XVIII manages to amend the succession and his daughter (we can call her Marie) becomes Queen, she would in a position analogous to Louis Phillippe in OTL since the Legitimists will favor the Artois line (OTL Charles X and his descendants). Marie would also need a husband who’s moderate and would mostly stay out of politics.
There is an issue with making this happen though. To start off, Louis XVIII was already 55 when his wife died: an old monarch in exile with no secure throne thus has little chance of securing a second marriage. Then, there are the reasons for which Louis XVIII choose not to remarry, which I personnally don't know: his age probably played a factord, the feelings he had for his wife (if he had any), etc... You'd need to thoroughly check those to see how likely he would be to consider remarrying.

Finally, there is the timing. Marie-Jospéphine of Savoy, Louis XVIII's wife, died on November 13, 1810. Louis XVIII died on September 16, 1824. That's a short 14 years gap, meaning any child born to Louis XVIII from this hypothethical second marriage would likely be underaged... Thus there would be a need for a Regency. And even if the regency's short (unless reformed, the majority of French Kings was still at 13), that leaves a young inexperienced King on the throne in a rather troubled era...
Are they going to pick the seniormost Spanish Bourbon, or simply the one they like the most?
Tradition would dictate the choice of the senior Bourbon.
Also, if the Spanish Bourbons are unacceptable to them, could they try installing someone from the illegitimate Capetian branch of Bourbon-Busset as the new French King instead?
It's possible but there have always been troubles around legitimizing Bastard lineages and integrating them into the succession. Louis XIV tried to have two of his illegitimate sons included in the succession in his will, but that ended up being broken by Parliament. We're a century after that of course, but I think some minds would still not like the idea, unless there no longer was any other option.
In addition to this, if other European powers intervene in order to crush a French republic in 1830, who exactly are they going to put in power in France? Given their monarchist inclinations, they'd have to find some monarch for this role--a Spanish Bourbon, perhaps?
The European powers would probably pick likely someone suitable for them and that could calm the situation. A Spanish Bourbon could work on the condition they don't see a personnal Franco-Spanish Union in this and if they are willing to repel Utrecht.

The other monarchical option I see is not a Bourbon... It's Napoleon II. The Austrians probably wouldn't have a problem with putting him on the throne since he's a prince of theirs by this point. Trouble is that it's basically putting Napoleon's son on the throne and that might cause concern.
By the Treaty of Montmartre in 1662, the House of Lorraine was named as next in line should the Bourbons die out. And by the 19th century, the only extant branch of the House of Lorraine were the Holy Roman/Austrian emperors. So that would mean either a son of HRE Leopold II (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopold_II,_Holy_Roman_Emperor#Issue) or a son, or grandson, of Austrian Emperor Francis I.
A problem with that reasonning is that we most likely end up with a foreign prince on the French throne... Which is kind of a big "no no" for France. I mean, the Hundred Years War mythos kinda build itself around the idea that it was Kicking the English out of France... So I don't see an austrian prince being well accepted.

Unless we're talking about the Duke of Reichstadt. But that's because he's not just the grandson of Francis I... He's also Napoleon's only son.
Louis XVIII was sexually impotent. Most historians agree on this.

So he won’t remarry.

But if you made him not impotent and have but a girl, I still don’t buy the abolition of the Salic Law.

Ferdinand VII was able to abolish the Salic Law because it had been quite recently imported from France by the Bourbons (barely a century).

At that time, the Salic Law had been the succession law to the throne of France for 5 centuries. It was so deeply entrenched in people’s minds that Napoleon also established succession rules in favor of the male lines.
The counter-argument to this would be that Times Change and Necessity makes Law.

It's true that Salic Law had been around for a long time but the situation could call for it. Furthermore, in the context of the XIXth Century, changing the succession law doesn't seem such an implausible task to undertake. I mean, France had already experienced its Revolution and went from an "Absolute" Monarchy to a Constitutionnal Regime.

And in that particular case, we're also facing a very disminished French Royal Family that is on the verge of dying out in the male line. And with no clear successor should that happen. So opening to female lines for the first time might be more of a necessity to expand the number of available legal heirs...
 
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