It is possible I guess.
What you would have to consider is that Maori contact with Europe is going to do the usual thing with regards to demographics. There will be a lot of disease and losses to infighting between the various tribes. France won't do much to stop that because it couldn't without spending a lot of money on garrisons across the country and why on earth would they?
So the initial demographic collapse will be an issue, then the South Island, as per OTL will seem largely empty as Maori had been unable to effectively settle the vast majority of it as they did not have the right crops to do so. Their crops were labour intensive and did not seem to grow well in most of the South due to it be slightly too cool. As such the population was in the low thousands or thereabouts, relying on a more hunter gatherer lifestyle compared to the hundreds of thousands of settled cultivating Maori in the North Island.
The French, unless stern, will end up with European/French settlers there. If Australia is still British you will still see thousands of British seep over into NZ to trade or farm. Many of those people simply wanted a fresh start (many were ex convicts) and unless the French kept expelling them, they would end up as per OTL - small settlements or trading stations, with farms in the south.
Then once there is a reasonable European/French population in the South they will likely wish to encourage more settlement for the usual reasons.