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A Free Hand
This will be a semi wankish timeline. I'm not going to make it easy for the Belgians, but they will be lucky at times and in the end, Belgium will be a lot bigger. Dont worry, the Congo wont be as bad this time around.
1854 would be a turbulent year in European history. Not only would the Crimean War kick off in all earnest, but also in western Europe the borders would change. It all started a year earlier, in a minor country on the north sea coast.
1853
After the new constitution quasi-forced upon the Kingdom of the Netherlands by Thorbecke and his liberals in the revolutionary year of 1848, many assumed the ideals of tolerance and neutrality had taken firm root in the Dutch political system. The truth was different, even though some still believed the lies. One of those who believed in that tolerant Netherlands was Pope Pius IX. He even thought that the Netherlands were ready for a restoration of the Catholic hierarchy. Ever since the protestant reformation, the Dutch Catholics had to do without a bishop. So on the 4th of march, 1853, the Roman Catholic church restored its structures in the deeply Protestant nation.
Chosen as one of the seats of the new bishoprics was Utrecht. Utrecht had been a center of the reformation, and the news of the coming bishop was not received well. End March, the Utrecht reformed church councils decided to lay down their grievances at the king’s feet in what was known as the April movement.
While a controversy developed in the North, another developed to the south. There, in Belgium, on the 9th of April 1853, crown prince Leopold, was sworn in as a member of the Belgian Senate. Known as rather brash personality, he proclaimed his expansionist ideas and accused the Netherlands of attempting to strangle Belgium by denying and hampering the nation’s access to the Scheldt and the Iron Rhine, a railway line to the Ruhr.[PoD 1]
The Dutch ambassador was naturally insulted, and if the Netherlands weren’t in a major constitutional crisis, there might have been a diplomatic one. Nevertheless, Leopold’s speech deepened the Dutch crisis. The Dutch king had refused to withdraw his support for the April movement. The rift between the king and the the government of the liberals deepened. William wanted to force the liberals out and repeal the 1848 constitution.
On the 16th of April, William met with Floris Van Hall, looking for him to head a new government if the old one were to fall. Van Hall, while having saved the Netherlands from a bankruptcy in 1844, was not willing to dirty his hands in this new crisis and refused. [Pod2] William nevertheless moved forward with his plan, and attempted to fire Thorbecke and his cabinet on the 19th of April 1853. The breaking point had been reached.
Thorbecke refused, called the king’s attempts unconstitutional. The king, shocked by this reaction, retreated to Utrecht, where he would solidify his position with the support of the radical Calvinists. The news of the fallout spread like wildfire and soon there were numerous clashes between supporters of the king and supporters of Thorbecke. At first there were attempts at reconciliation, but slowly but surely the Netherlands neared the brink of civil war. The Netherlands were on the brink of civil war.
Towards the South, the government of the liberal de Brouckere, proclaimed its support of Thorbecke and its protection of the Catholics in the provinces of North Brabant and Limburg. On the 25th of August, Leopold incensed public opinion even more, by paying for the opera Muette de Portici to be played in all opera houses in the nation. Recalling their victorious revolution and the losing of the Limburg and Luxemburg provinces, the Belgian upper classes started to desire violence too.
1854
This state of almost war was obsessive for all factions. Skirmishes between supporters of the different factions increased monthly, transforming from simple streetfights to all out paramilitary actions between the different groups. Leopold II paid for shipments of arms were smuggled from Herstal down the Meuse to Maastricht and the rest of north Brabant, arming the majorly catholic provinces, earning their goodwill. With the weapons came spies as well, and both their ears and their tongues went to work.
The other European powers were too busy with seeking a diplomatic solution for the Russian-Ottoman conflict to notice the one growing in their midst. On the 26th of July 1854, Thorbecke took his chance. Calling back to the revolt against Philip II, he published a long prepared document. With a Plakkaat van Verlatinghe of his own, he declared an independent republic. The coastal provinces of Holland and Zeeland followed him, while more inland provinces followed the king and the Catholic provinces in the south declined to take a side.
The Netherlands were in a civil war.
[PoD1] Leopold’s speech was not aggressive OTL, more a typical politician thing of observing the constitution, wishing prosperoty for the nation etc etc.
[PoD2] Van Hall accepted OTL, and Thorbecke fell on the 19th of April. Van Hall managed to cool things down.