A Franco-Dutch alliance Timeline proposal

Are you interested in an timeline about a Franco-Dutch alliance


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I have recently finished "The Dutch Republic" by Jonathan Israel and got inspired for a timeline idea. Basicly the idea is this: France and the Netherlands were allied during the last stages of the Dutch revolt; what if that alliance would have continued after the end of the Dutch revolt? Bascly I belive both countries could have profited from an alliance. For France it would have meant an ally to neutralise from threat of the Habsburg northern border. Both countries could have kicked the Habsburgs out of the Southern Netherlands. It would secure France's northern border and together with the Dutch navy France would a match for the English. For the Netherlands an alliance with France would mean less danger on the European continent (France was basicly the main enemy during the late 17th and 18th century for the Netherlands) and a good ally against the English.

Basicly the idea is that the Netherlands and France both are able to focus less on Europe (since there are any major threads) and more on overseas colonies,forming a counterweight to English colonisation. In short, instead of England dominating it would lead to a more balanced situation. Both the Netherlands as France will be doing better. Mind you, I am not planning a Dutch or French wank. For example not all of Belgium will end up Dutch. There will be no huge big colonial Dutch empire etc. They will do better than OTL, but not unreasonably so. The same is true for France. For example France will not get the Rhineborder (how can it, if the Netherlands is in the way). There will be no French speaking USA analog, etc. Neither will it be a Brit screw. Although England will lose some of its colonies to France and or the Netherlands, it will still remain a formidable colonial power, just not as strong as OTL. As I said, I want a more balanced situation.

I have already some idea what I want to do. I know the POD (stadholder WIllem II lives). I know where I want to go and got some good idea how the first couple of updates look like. But I will not start anything if noone cares. Also I might need some help. Especialy for things like maps. Maybe for writing or proofreading (my English isn't that great as you might have noticed). Maybe for some advice on areas of history I know not that much about. So I included this poll. Please vote, please comment or offer your help.
 
It sounds interesting, but you need to explain a big thing that you shortly seem to gloss over;

And that is that everyone cares more about Europe than about any other place. Are the Dutch going to support the French annexing Alsace and Savoie? If not, why aren't the French trying, given that the alliance holds?

In addition, there's going to be massive ramifications in Dutch politics; the RL republic had an unstable Hollandic majority, which essentially lasted the whole length of the Republic (unstable in the sense it didn't rule by decree, and it was sometimes overthrown by a new pro-Orangist or pro-Statist majority the rest of the country and parts of Holland). Unless you intend to add half of Belgium as Generality lands (which seems likely to cause other issues), this outright majority will go out the window, and other coalitions in the States-General will come to dominance, adding a second or even third axis to the rather simplified Orangist-Statist conflict.
 
A Republic of the XVII United Netherlands will be interesting. Flanders and Brabant will be a counterweight to Holland. Then there also are the Romance speaking Artois, Namur and Hainaut, which may become a deciding block in the Estates General; they will never dominate, but they may be in the position to decide, which side wins.
 
A Republic of the XVII United Netherlands will be interesting. Flanders and Brabant will be a counterweight to Holland. Then there also are the Romance speaking Artois, Namur and Hainaut, which may become a deciding block in the Estates General; they will never dominate, but they may be in the position to decide, which side wins.
I would tend to think that there would be splitting between France and Holland according to language lines...
 
does this mean the Huguenots keep power for a longer period in france?
and no st Bartholomew's day massacre?
 
Exporting Huguenots or Guisards (the most dangerous ones) to Québec remains a possibility. Who knows, it's pretty cold, they might suffer from accidents...
 
I would tend to think that there would be splitting between France and Holland according to language lines...

During that age, that doesn't necessarily have to be the outcome; they may or may not divide it, but along language lines might be a too modern approach. Besides even an independent XVII Netherlands will be better than a Low Countries dominated by the Spanish Habsburgs.
 
i agree, language lines is way too 20th century

and the huguenots can still flee north, as they did OTL.
but in order for this to work you need at least catherina de medici out of the way
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Bartholomew's_Day_massacre

i have the feeling you need a longer power of the huguenots for this to work, and that will have effects on the counterreformation.

of course under these conditions it will not be a 80-year war, since the french will also fight the spanish at their south after a while.

butterflies in this case
- different french counterreformation
- no counter reformation in southern netherlands

these difference will mean no spain in souther netherlands, so unlikely they will enter and alliance with the HRE, france will not feel surrounded by habsburgs.
so result will be no 30 year war
 
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If the POD (as pompejus said) involves WIllem II then the St. Bartholomew's Massacre had already happened decades before. It can't be changed.
 
A couple of things. I don't want to go too deep into it though, not to give away too much. I could give you all my ideas, but why would I write a timeline about it. As I said the POD is Willem II surviving. Basicly he makes a deal with France to divide the Southern Netherlands, like he was planning OTL. This makes Louis XIV more friendly towards the Netherlands, also because the Dutch Republic is less republican. As I said, the Southern Netherlands will be divided by France and the Netherlands. Since I don't think it is possible for the Netherlands to gain a large part of Wallonia, Wallonia will end up French (although I might make a tiny part of Wallonia south of Maastricht Dutch, just because I like the idea of a small French speaking part of the Netherlands, oh and no that certainly does not mean all of Limburg, if I say tiny, I mean tiny). It also means that quite a large part (yes significantly larger than Dunkirk) of the Dutch speaking southern Netherlands will end up French. I am using the most realistic option, not the most linguisticly pleasing option.

About the Hugenots. Well, France will obviously still be catholic, but I think the hugenots will play an important part in Franco-Dutch diplomatic relations. I think Louis XIV will be smart enough to use them that way, also partly as way to get rid of them. Basicly dump them into the Netherlands.

Last thing. I am planning to increase the number of provinces in the Netherlands (although probably differently than some of you expect). I agree that you can't keep large parts of the country as a generality land for too long, but Holland will still able to dominate the other provinces. Holland was so far ahead of the other provinces in basicly every way. For example Flanders was way past its prime in the 17th century, especialy after a large amount of protestants fled north. The same is true for Brabant. Most towns (with the obvious exception of Antwerp) could not compete with the trade towns of Holland. So in the end Holland still wins out. That said, If I add 2-3* more provinces it will change the balance of power somewhat.

That said. Yes I think the orangist-statist divide will still be the dominant power struggle in the Netherlands. I don't think there is anything that could replace it.

Oh about French expansionism, personaly I am thinking of limiting it somewhat compared to OTL and have them focus more on overseas expansion. I am not going to say where, although it should be obvious. Basicly with their border secure, France isn't as paranoid as OTL and when they realise the wealth you can gain in the colonies, they decide to look towards the sea, instead of the Rhine. Mind you there will be European expansion (like I have mentioned a large part of the southern Netherlands).

*possibly more, but currently I am thinking 2-3
 
the little bit below maastricht is dutch speaking wallonia, the 'voerstreek'

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voerstreek

but adding some german speaking areas is doable

this wiki page has a good map of where the language border lies.

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nederlandse_dialecten

i could imagine they would like to keep Luik/Liege, so maybe a border just below Eupen & luik towards just south of brussels?

Personaly I was thinking of the lands of Dalheim (part of the overmaas area) , some of those lands were in French speaking areas.

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graafschap_Dalhem
 
There's also another ramification that I think can have large impacts down the line;

If the Dutch figure out a way to 'properly' integrate new land, quite a few chunks of dominated Germany (Emden, Kleve, Lingen) could eventually be officially incorporated in the Republic too, rather than eventually shifting away in this or that dynastic dispute. Eventually that might lead to a Netherlands stretching to the Weser or even further, but that's way further down the line.


As to your comments re:power; I agree Holland will still dominate, but historically it funded over half the country and for short bursts almost everything (esp. 1672). With more provinces, it must almost surely drop below 50%, which seems like an important threshold intuitively (Zeeland was often in Hollandic pockets too, but not always). I'd also imagine Flemish/Antwerper fortunes would improve, eventually, assuming the Oostende/Brugge/Antwerpen region is Dutch.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
A surviving Willem II will have a huge internal political effect. Let's not forget that when he died Willem had practically won the struggle against Amsterdam. It was only his sudden death which made it possible for Amsterdam and other regents to gain power again. Willem II was pretty young and according to Johan de Witt extremely gifted. In a few days he will also have a excellent heir. I can see the Estates General lose almost almost all their power at the end of the reign of Willem II.
 
How excellent? Will they declare him duke of Gelre, count of Holland and Zeeland, and lord of Utrecht? Sure his position will be comparable to the role of the British monarch, but he won't be dependent on a small Arelat principality (Orange) for his sovereignty.
 
How excellent? Will they declare him duke of Gelre, count of Holland and Zeeland, and lord of Utrecht? Sure his position will be comparable to the role of the British monarch, but he won't be dependent on a small Arelat principality (Orange) for his sovereignty.
Count of Holland is impossible. Actualy I would say that's true for most provinces. Gelderland is probably the only exception (well maybe there's another one).

Anyway, yes Willem II will be the most influential person in the Dutch republic for a while, on the level of Maurice and Frederick-Hendrik. He will be the main driving force of the Franco-Dutch alliance. Still, like all the time in the Dutch republic, the influence of the stadholders will decline and rise again. Basicly when there is a good competent stadholder, the stadholders will be influential, when there is a weak stadholder (and there will be weak stadholders) the state party will be in charge.

About expansion into Germany. I don't know about that. The focus of the Netherlands always was to the south and overseas, hardly ever into Germany (with the possible exception of East-Frisia). Maybe I will do something wth it, although probably not. It shouldn't become an unrealistic Dutch wank. Although to be fair, I don't think it will. The Dutch republic will be a lot smaller than people here seem to think it will.
 
Interesting idea.
I had some thought about it.
Suppose Johan de Witt accept, after strong negotiating the partition plans of Louis XIV. The result will be that Louis will have is much desired glory and a considrable enlargment of his realm. All this might temper furhter desire for glory. For the Dutch Republic it could mean also an enlargement. I though, after strong negotiating, Flanders (may netire Flanders including Lille and Dunkirk), Brabant, Spanish Glere and the bits and pieces of Limburg. Stratigic Namur will be most likely end up French.
Johan de Witt will probably enter some very dificult political times, after enlarging the Republic with Catholic lands and a large potential, competitor for Amsterdam, Antwerp.On the other hand far from the faith he encounterd in OTL.

All this would prevent an enraged absolute monarch who devoted his life to destroy the man and country who denied his glory and conquest as happened in OTL when Johan de Witt rejected the partition porposals ( at the time not faforable for the Dutch) and he, Johan de Witt, fabricated the Triple Aliance. This Alliance denied Louis his glory and forced him at the negotiating table, to give up nearly all the military conquest his army made. The result was pure revenge; the murder on Johan de Witt, invasion of the Dutch Republic, emerge of William III of Orange who used the Dutch tresure for his personal battle agianst Louis XIV. The Dutch war followed by the Nine years war and the War of the Spanish Succession. All this wars, most likely rooted in the dening of glory of Louis XIV after the war of Devolution, left the Dutch Republic with an atronomical debt which was one of the major casues of its decline.

Peace between France and the Dutch Republic might be theaten by other factors. One could be the emerge of mr. Colbert as minister of France which was the major factor of the harrasment of Hugenots and finaly the end of the the Edict of Nantes, which caused the emmigration of hundreds of thousand Protetants from France. An othe threat could be a pro French, English King who like to have a large share of the Dutch trade.

One other thing I was thinking, what would happen if the Dutch Republic install a kind of conscription like the Swedes had, at that time, adapted to the Dutch Republic, after the Grand Meeting of 1651. This can be an option to have a large but affordable army instead of an expensive and unrealiable mercenary army or contract army.
If you want to negotiate you better carry a big stick.

Next rival to England was the Bishop of Munster, who beside religious rivalry had serous border disputes with the Dutch Republic and was willing to solve this with war.

An other potential add on to the Dutch Republic was East Frisia, whihc was during the course of the 2nd halve of the 17th century almost in a state of civil war between the Aristocratic rulers and the "civilian" State Council. The Duthc Republic had a contigent of soldiers in this County since the early 17th century, it is not dificult to chose a side or even "invite'' this Protestant County in the United Provinces.

Please to all, view Europe not with "modern eyes" Countries were not devided by language but by, ancient, borders of counties, ducalities, fiefdoms and clergical possension. For monarchs and other rulers at the time, the people and their langueages was of no importance. OTL Belgium consisted of many Counties, not just a Flemish part or a Waloon part. The last are terms form the late 19th and the 20th century.
 
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HJ Tulp

Donor
Count of Holland is impossible. Actualy I would say that's true for most provinces. Gelderland is probably the only exception (well maybe there's another one).

Why? IIRC before his assassination there were plans to give Willem van Oranje those kind of titles.

Anyway, yes Willem II will be the most influential person in the Dutch republic for a while, on the level of Maurice and Frederick-Hendrik. He will be the main driving force of the Franco-Dutch alliance. Still, like all the time in the Dutch republic, the influence of the stadholders will decline and rise again. Basicly when there is a good competent stadholder, the stadholders will be influential, when there is a weak stadholder (and there will be weak stadholders) the state party will be in charge.

I think I see this differently. The power of the Stadholders didn't decline if they were weak. It declined if they were absent. Willem IV and V were not very strong stadholders (to put it mildly) yet they became the most powerful stadholders in history! In your timeline we have Willem II surviving after he historically died at the age of 24. Let's say he survives to the age of 50. That's 26 years he can use to solidify his hold on the country. He can also transfer that power to his heir Willem III and thus the Estates don't have a Stadholderless Era to regain ground lost. If we look at history it has never happened that the Estates gained power against a sitting Stadholder. I do think that we could get a situation as in Great Britain however :)

Giving this scenario more thought I think a good reasons for the Netherlands to ally with France could very well be a prolonged Parliamentarian England given the Oranje-Stuart connection :)
 
Regarding the Orange/Stuart connection, if William II lives longer he can have more children with Mary Stuart than only William III. So, if the Stuarts fail to have heirs, a Protestant succession could be more secured.
 
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