A Franco-Austrian alliance against Prussia ?

What if, during the 1840s, both France and Austria realise the threat that represents Prussia and choose to put their disagreements on Italy aside, and join their forces to avoid the formation of Germany.
 
What if, during the 1840s, both France and Austria realise the threat that represents Prussia and choose to put their disagreements on Italy aside, and join their forces to avoid the formation of Germany.

Until 1846, Guizot was in full entente cordiale mode. You could have a window of opportunity in 1846, but you'd need to butterfly away the 1848 Revolutions.
 
Until 1846, Guizot was in full entente cordiale mode. You could have a window of opportunity in 1846, but you'd need to butterfly away the 1848 Revolutions.

Would it be possible that a Thiers government with Guizot at Foreign Affairs helped to enlarge vote to lower midlle classes, who were the leaders of the 1848 revolution ?
 
Would it be possible that a Thiers government with Guizot at Foreign Affairs helped to enlarge vote to lower midlle classes, who were the leaders of the 1848 revolution ?

Thiers and Guizot hated each other and would not have accepted such a coalition.
 
A Franco-Austrian alliance against Prussia will definitely involve France trying to gain at least portions of the left bank of the Rhine. The bare minimum would be the 1814 Treaty of Paris border in the Saar area.

A_map_of_the_Eastern_boundary_of_France_to_illustrate_Article_III_in_The_First_Peace_of_Paris_30th_May_1814.jpg

(you can see the faintly dotted line in the French portion of the Saar area, which is basically the post-1815 border, and the red border there in comparison)

Potentially France could demand even more. The Rhine Crisis back in 1840 did involve them trying to go back to the Rhine as their "natural border" after all. For both parties getting Prussia out of the Rhineland and Westphalia should be a top priority in order to avoid Prussian dominance in the region.
 
What if, during the 1840s, both France and Austria realise the threat that represents Prussia and choose to put their disagreements on Italy aside, and join their forces to avoid the formation of Germany.

No chance in the 1840s. No one then saw Prussia as a threat.

In the 1860s maybe if FJ dies and Maximilian becomes (depending on the timing) either Emperor or Regent. He and Napoleon III might have hit it off .
 
Wouldn't be so sure about that. Under Metternich's embassy France and Austria we'e growing closer and Franz Josef nearly sided with Napoleon III in the early days of the Franco-Prussian war. So a 1860s alliance could happen.

Really ? Ow, so it would be possible after 1840s ? But still, I would have prefered a Orléans/Bourbon but, whatever, thanks you to teach me that :eek:
 
Wouldn't be so sure about that. Under Metternich's embassy France and Austria we'e growing closer and Franz Josef nearly sided with Napoleon III in the early days of the Franco-Prussian war. So a 1860s alliance could happen.

The war with Italy took place after Metternich had lost most of his influence, so that doesn't contradict his assertion. And the fact that the Austrians did sit the Franco-Prussian War out despite it being an opportunity for revenge, well, it at least suggests that their prior altercation with Napoleon III had poisoned the well. Avoiding that conflict seems important.
 
The war with Italy took place after Metternich had lost most of his influence, so that doesn't contradict his assertion. And the fact that the Austrians did sit the Franco-Prussian War out despite it being an opportunity for revenge, well, it at least suggests that their prior altercation with Napoleon III had poisoned the well. Avoiding that conflict seems important.

Talking about his son Richard, whose ambassadorship didn't start until after the 1859 war.
 
As the Olmutz Punctuation showed, Austria was capable of keeping the lid on Prussian ambitions in Germany in the 1840s- in fact, the bigger problem seems to be the threat of France, against who Prussia and Austria are busy collaborating. It's not impossible that Prussia could be a problem earlier, but you'd need a more substantial set of changes to make them actually appear a serious threat at this stage.
 
As the Olmutz Punctuation showed, Austria was capable of keeping the lid on Prussian ambitions in Germany in the 1840s- in fact, the bigger problem seems to be the threat of France, against who Prussia and Austria are busy collaborating. It's not impossible that Prussia could be a problem earlier, but you'd need a more substantial set of changes to make them actually appear a serious threat at this stage.

I don't want to be mean, but talking of Olmutz is a total anachronism ... in the 40s, Austria and Prussia were disaggreing on small or great germany
 
You need to change a lot in Prussia. The Prussian Army wasn't a threat in the 1840ies. and 1850ies. Only the military reforms after that modernized the army which was then able to beat the Austrians.
Look for example at the crisis between Austria and Prussia in 1850 which resulted in the Olmutz Punctuation. Prussia retreated their troops from the electorate of Hesse after war became more and more likely.
In these decades Austria was still stronger than Prussia. If Austria and Russia cooperate, Prussia isn't a threat for them, since any Prussian government would step back from their demands, if a war with these two larger countries becomes likely.

Another problem between Austria and France is Italy. If France tries to increase their influence in Italy and tries to cooperate with Sardinia-Piedmont, France becomes a rival of Austria.

If Prussia would have an alliance with Britain or Russia, it becomes a larger threat which could result in closer French-Austrian cooperation.

Prussian cooperation with German nationalism becomes more and more likely and a threat after and during the 1848 revolution. I doubt that any Prussian government would try to cooperate with these nationalists and archive German unification before 1848.
 
talking of Olmutz is a total anachronism ... in the 40s, Austria and Prussia were disaggreing on small or great germany
That wasn't all they were disagreeing about: the German Confederation (1815-1848, 1850-1866) had an Austrian president, and the Erfurt Union had a Prussian one. The wider point which you seem to have missed is that Austria was able to force Prussia to back down without outside assistance. That undermines your assertions about 'the threat that represents Prussia' needing a Franco-Austrian alliance. Instead, as the military planning shows, it's the threat of France that requires an Austro-Prussian alliance.
 
So the POD would be a high militarization of Prussia in those years that would increase tense between Prussia and Austria ? Or a diplomatic crisis ?
 
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