A few what-ifs about the voyages of Bartolemeu Dias

raharris1973

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bartolomeu_Dias

He was the first European to round the Cape and make it back, in the years 1487-88.

His voyage was foundational for the later voyage of Vasco Da Gama to India in 1497-1498.

Here's a few ideas to bring about some divergences from our timeline.

1) What if Dias discovered Brazil on the way back?

PoD - after reaching the Cape from the east, thus confirming the attachment of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, rather than coasting home slowly, takes a different route. Perhaps tossed into position by storms, he catches the South Atlantic gyre, which leads to near Brazil. He stops, reprovisions successfully, and returns to Portugal.

Thus the new western continent is discovered by Europeans, and definitively known to the King of Portugal, 4 years before the voyages of Columbus.

Questions in the meantime - could Dias' expedition have survived the voyage across the South Atlantic, landed in Brazil without crashing, and reprovisioned without getting killed, and then get home? And can they discover Brazil wood and see it as something valuable while they are at it?

Consequences: I imagine the push to continue to explore east would continue with equal force, as the Portuguese will still correctly believe this is the quickest path to India.

But they now have the option of exploring and exploiting the new unknown western continent and claiming it for themselves. They could well explore the coasts of south America and reach into the Caribbean within a few years, and announce broad claims to everything up to the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Spain or any other powers end up only with the room to explore only points further north, unless they can manage contesting Portuguese claims by force.

2) What if Dias never gets knocked by OTL's storm that pushed him to the east side of the Cape and then allowed him to sea how Africa was to his west, but then he lands in Brazil on the way back?

This could conceivably set back the timetable for a full Da Gama expedition, force another voyage to confirm that Africa is surrounded by water, while still making the Portuguese interested in checking out the western continent in more detail.

3) What Dias never made it back?

If his expedition is lost at sea or its survivors stranded where they will be undiscovered, what does this do to the tactics and timetable of Portuguese exploration and exploitation?
 

raharris1973

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Developing scenario #1, I think Portugal would become the favorite to dominate the Caribbean, Mexico and South America, and Spain could not successfully poach on places where Portugal makes the first move.

In the 1490s, Portugal had naval superiority over Spain.
 

TruthfulPanda

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There are theories/suspicions that Dias (or other Portuguese sailor) did see Brazil. But that was kept under wraps as not to detract from the Principal Objective - India. And hence the insistence on the line of division at Tordesilhas running so far west.
Only after Colombus blew the whistle did the Portuguese "discover" Brazil.
The Portuguese were not interested in exploring new lands to the west when they were so close to their "Holy Grail".
 
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There are theories/suspicions that Dias (or other Portuguese sailor) did see Brazil. But that was kept under wraps as not to detract from the Principal Objective - India. And hence the insistence on the line of division at Tordesilhas running so far west.
Only after Colombus blew the whistle did the Portuguese "discover" Brazil.
The Portuguese were not interested in exploring new lands to the west when they were so close to their "Holy Grail".
Yes, it's very interesting that the renegotiation of Tordesillas in 1493 happened to encompass exactly the tip of Brazil.
There are many more arguments but it's also interesting to note Brasil was officially discovered on the second voyage to India, the one right after Gama confirmed a viable course
 

raharris1973

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There are theories/suspicions that Dias (or other Portuguese sailor) did see Brazil. But that was kept under wraps as not to detract from the Principal Objective - India.

QUOTE="TruthfulPanda, post: 16579489, member: 107295"]The Portuguese were not interested in exploring new lands to the west when they were so close to their "Holy Grail".[/QUOTE]

There are many more arguments but it's also interesting to note Brasil was officially discovered on the second voyage to India, the one right after Gama confirmed a viable course

Why couldn't the Portuguese push in *both* directions?

If Columbus failed to return, might there be no new expeditions by Spain or others besides Portugal before 1500? In that case, after Da Gama's return trip of 1498, might the Portuguese start checking out Brazil and its environs more and end up claiming all the Americas, or at least a lot more of them?

I could see the Portuguese exploring a bit more and trying to keep it under wraps, but if they are aware of more territory by the time another power finally succeeds in exposing the secret of land to the west, the Portuguese may want more than just the tip of Brazil. The Portuguese might assert a claim to everything south of the Tropic of Cancer (extending the line of the Alcocovas treaty governing the Atlantic prior to inter caetera and Tordesillas) or at least the entire South American continent.

Here's one possible PoD:

In OTL, Columbus stopped in the Portuguese Azores and Lisbon before returning to Spain in 1793.

Could the Portuguese have chosen to maintain their nautical advantage by interrogating Columbus and his crewmen, killing them, destroying their ships so it appeared all hands were lost at sea, and then scheduling a follow up expedition of their own to the Caribbean, to make their own public claim.

I am not sure if all Columbus's returning ships stayed packed together or if one got to Spain directly on their return voyage. If they separated, that would spoil such a plan.

Also, I think a cover-up would be easier to pull off without witnesses in the Azores rather than Lisbon.

Thoughts?
 

TruthfulPanda

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I'd guess that Portugal simply did not have the resources to push in both directions.
At least before the trade with India began to bring in the money or its hand was forced by Colombus' discovery.

Here's one possible PoD:
In OTL, Columbus stopped in the Portuguese Azores and Lisbon before returning to Spain in 1793.
Could the Portuguese have chosen to maintain their nautical advantage by interrogating Columbus and his crewmen, killing them, destroying their ships so it appeared all hands were lost at sea, and then scheduling a follow up expedition of their own to the Caribbean, to make their own public claim.
I am not sure if all Columbus's returning ships stayed packed together or if one got to Spain directly on their return voyage. If they separated, that would spoil such a plan.
Also, I think a cover-up would be easier to pull off without witnesses in the Azores rather than Lisbon.
Thoughts?
I think I've seen this idea poked at on this board ..
 
I'd guess that Portugal simply did not have the resources to push in both directions.
At least before the trade with India began to bring in the money or its hand was forced by Colombus' discovery.
Also, on one side you have just forests which would take year to exploit in any meaningful way as they don't have a ready market at home and on the other, spices.

The other thing is that trying to reach the Indian Ocean by staying close to Africa is a nightmare because of the currents. The best way is to do a wide curve, passing close to Brasil and head to the Cape from there. This was a massive trade secret.
Acknowledging you discovered Brasil might tip off other people about your route.

Plus the fact Spain felt shafted by only finding America. It's only with Cortes in 1522 that they hit it big
 
Chances are that Portugal had contact, or least had a good idea that land was there, with the Brazilian coast before 1500, keeping it as a well kept secret until 1500. However, things probably wouldn't change much: Portugal was "India-oriented" until 1520-1530 and the Brazilian coast, with its jungles, no precious materials and sparse native tribes was not much of interest to the discovers. Somewhat similar to the Spanish in the Caribbean until, as said before in this tread, when Cortes finds the richnesses of Mexico
 
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