A Fascist/Imperialist Russia, with A Communist Germany Post World War One.

Why thank you very much, IBC; it's always nice to get a compliment from you regarding Russia! :D

As for your own theories on how Czecho-German relations could develop, I must say they are top-notch!

I do wonder, though, how a Red Germany would treat the Danzig/East Prussia Questions. And on that note, how would German-Polish relations develop if Germany goes Red?

You could have an interesting clash within German politics between German nationalists/irredentists on the one hand, and those willing to co-exist with Poland and abide by Versailles (or at least not be militantly opposed to it) on the other. (Of course, this could also have a lot to do with how the Czech situation works out.)

But there will be no Versailles in this world: the Reds presumably come to some sort of armistice with the British and French, but they're going to be less willing to be dictated to as to what their eastern borders are going to be.


Additionally, is there a possibility that we could see a German-Polish alliance to counter a potential Russian threat? Or even a German-Russian alliance to curb Polish ambitions in Central and Eastern Europe? (I'm a bit doubtful on the last one unless German Communism heads down a Stalinist path.)

I'm not sure why Polish power in eastern Europe will be more powerful than OTL: unless the Whites come to power after a period of well, warlordism, it's hard to see Poland pushing much further east than OTL. As you say, it's hard to see Germany and Russia coming to a split-up-Poland arrangement ATL: I'd consider German grudging support for the existence of Poland likely, since 1.) after the Revolution, Germany is in no real shape for military adventures, 2.) Working out a peace with the Brits and French is going to be hard enough even without going all March-to-the-East on the Poles, whose independence French and British are probably going to be favorable to (swallowing the Czechs is going to aggravate them as it is) and 3.) the further east Poland extends, the further away and weaker the Russians are.

(Hm. Possibility - the Germans trade support for Polish expansion to the east in exchange for a link to east Prussia. This puts Poland in Germany's debt, and worsens Polish relations with Russia - forcing them to rely more on German support. Also, a larger Poland may actually be a weaker Poland, suffering from serious internal divisions...)

Bruce
 
Assuming that the Whites' borders are the same as OTL's pre-War Soviet Union, there will be lots and lots and lots of revanchist and imperialistic aims aimed at Poland, the Baltic States, and Finland. We also shouldn't discount potential adventures in Asia led by folks like Ungern fon Shternberg (if he's still around) or Semyonov.

Hm - will the semi-republican regime of the 20's be up for any adventurism? There's not much that can be done in Asia which doesn't bring one into conflict with the British or the Japanese: Shternberg OTL got along OK with the Japanese because he was an anti-Bolshevik free agent: I think they'd be much less happy with him leading a filibustering expedition to Mongolia with plans to hand the place over to White Russia, and I don't think Russia's going to be up to Round Two vs. Japan before the 1930s.

Great Depression - is it still going to happen in a world where the banks of central Europe are in a Communist nation, and quite possibly state-owned?

Bruce
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Hm - will the semi-republican regime of the 20's be up for any adventurism? There's not much that can be done in Asia which doesn't bring one into conflict with the British or the Japanese: Shternberg OTL got along OK with the Japanese because he was an anti-Bolshevik free agent: I think they'd be much less happy with him leading a filibustering expedition to Mongolia with plans to hand the place over to White Russia, and I don't think Russia's going to be up to Round Two vs. Japan before the 1930s.
I was assuming adventurism would occur in the '30s; obviously the '20s are going to be a serious time of rebuilding for Russia. With regards to Shternberg's potential adventures in Outer Mongolia (assuming the guy's still around; even Whites thought he was batshit insane), those will probably happen in the '20s. If, however, any Russian adventures in the East (Shternbergian or otherwise) are put off till the '30s, Japan may be too preoccupied with their own quagmire in China proper to care much about Outer Mongolia. They'll probably put up a fight over Manchuria, but that's about it.

But there will be no Versailles in this world: the Reds presumably come to some sort of armistice with the British and French, but they're going to be less willing to be dictated to as to what their eastern borders are going to be.
Ah, I see. I was assuming there would be a Versailles and that the Reds would take power after.

I'm not sure why Polish power in eastern Europe will be more powerful than OTL: unless the Whites come to power after a period of well, warlordism, it's hard to see Poland pushing much further east than OTL. As you say, it's hard to see Germany and Russia coming to a split-up-Poland arrangement ATL: I'd consider German grudging support for the existence of Poland likely, since 1.) after the Revolution, Germany is in no real shape for military adventures, 2.) Working out a peace with the Brits and French is going to be hard enough even without going all March-to-the-East on the Poles, whose independence French and British are probably going to be favorable to (swallowing the Czechs is going to aggravate them as it is) and 3.) the further east Poland extends, the further away and weaker the Russians are.
I'm not saying that the Poles will necessarily be more powerful, but even by their mere geographic location and demographic influence they will be a significant power in Eastern Europe. And again, I'm assuming that any German aggression or designs in the East will occur in the 1930s. Militarily, I think we could almost disregard the '20s altogether since everybody's going to be so busy getting their houses back in order.

(Hm. Possibility - the Germans trade support for Polish expansion to the east in exchange for a link to east Prussia. This puts Poland in Germany's debt, and worsens Polish relations with Russia - forcing them to rely more on German support. Also, a larger Poland may actually be a weaker Poland, suffering from serious internal divisions...)
Poland is just straight-up not going to surrender what little coastline they have to Germany. A lot of pressure was put on them OTL to do that and they consistently refused.

And this of course assumes that Poland does well in the East, something that may not necessarily happen, especially if the Whites win in 1919. Remember, the Soviets almost beat Poland even while fighting Ukrainian nationalists, Makhno's ragtag bunch, Kolchak in Siberia and what was left of Denikin and Wrangel's forces in the Ukraine, not to mention the other tin-pot warlords that set themselves up. While I think the idea of the Whites being able to reconquer Poland is a bit dicey, I could see them managing to get back bits of Belarus and the Ukraine that the Poles managed to keep.


Great Depression - is it still going to happen in a world where the banks of central Europe are in a Communist nation, and quite possibly state-owned?
I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on economics here, but from what I've gathered some kind of Depression was almost unavoidable after World War I, though when it occurs is definitely prone to butterflies.

And even if the banks are under state control, we should remember that the German strain of Communism will probably be far more market-friendly than even Bukharinism was. Germany's just too important a country to become financially isolated. Communist Germany and the Western powers are going to some financial understanding unless both want to suffer.
 
German communism would probably far more internationalist in nature. If there were a similar revolution in AH, the two nations might join together in some sort of communist federation. What becomes of Hungary, Croatia, and Serbia in this situation?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Honestly, I think that things in the Balkans may work out more or less as they did in OTL. Though there may be some bizarre alliances between pan-Germanists and Communists in places like Austria and Hungary.
 
Ah, I see. I was assuming there would be a Versailles and that the Reds would take power after.

I believe we were assuming that the Reds come to power as a result of a WWI that drags on longer, further radicalizing the Left and weaking traditional powers - the odds of the Reds coming to power in Germany if history does not diverge until Versailles lies somewhere between "slim" and "none."

I'm not saying that the Poles will necessarily be more powerful, but even by their mere geographic location and demographic influence they will be a significant power in Eastern Europe.]

If you are saying they'll be no more influencial than OTL, I'll agree with you. :)


Poland is just straight-up not going to surrender what little coastline they have to Germany. A lot of pressure was put on them OTL to do that and they consistently refused

Then things may get ugly: the Germans are going to be stubborn about holding onto a connection to east Prussia, and if the Germans aren't capable of doing much militarily, neither are the Poles. Was the area ever siezed forcibly by Polish troops or was it peacefully evacuated after being awarded at Versailles? [1]

Germany's just too important a country to become financially isolated. Communist Germany and the Western powers are going to some financial understanding unless both want to suffer.

I'd agree there, although I'd say on the German side its more a matter of the Germans being too dependent on imports and trade.

Bruce

[1] We really need to establish how the Red German-French-English armistice comes about: the French and the Brits may not be up to forcibly removing the revolutionary government, but there's nothing to prevent them from keeping up a blockade highly damaging to the prospects of the new regime.
 
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Honestly, I think that things in the Balkans may work out more or less as they did in OTL. Though there may be some bizarre alliances between pan-Germanists and Communists in places like Austria and Hungary.

I Blame Communism rather strongly argued for a successful alliance of pan-Germanists and Communists. Hungary, either independent or a German puppet: the rest of the Balkans, as you say, most like OTL.

Bruce
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I Blame Communism rather strongly argued for a successful alliance of pan-Germanists and Communists. Hungary, either independent or a German puppet: the rest of the Balkans, as you say, most like OTL.
Indeed he did, sir. Though that doesn't make said alliances any less bizarre, does it? ;):p

Anyways, your point about the Entente keeping up the blockade to hurt the Red Government in Germany is quite an insight. Hrmm. If Germany's still being starved by the blockade, we may see them embrace something similar to war communism, which could really warp the development of a Communist Germany and send it down a far more dictatorial road, which isn't a very good precedent.

The only real way around this idea of a continued blockade of Germany that I have is basically Germany looting as much as it can from occupied territories just to survive, something that will certainly alienate...everybody, especially folks like the Czechs who may be interested in a union with Germany.

Anyone else got some ideas as to solve this newest puzzle?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I'd like to keep this thread going since:

A) It interests me

B) It has absolutely nothing to do with Israel! A welcome break for all! :D
 

Biggy

Banned
If the Whites win in 1919-1920 there will be no peace of Riga, there will no borders like OTL. The French will not see Poland as their replacement for Russia in countering Germany in Central Europe, and will withdraw support for Pilsudski, instead giving it to more pro-Russian faction of Dmowski.
Polish borders will be more similiar to Curzon line B, with more bits of Silesia and East Prussia given as compensation and support for Dmowski faction.
Whites won't reconquer Poland, this would go against both interests of Entente and generally it was seen by Russians as not worth the trouble it had caused in the past by annexing it. Of course influence is another matter and quite likely the Russians will insist on certain bilateral deals.
This is actually quite good, since in OTL Poland lost a huge Russian market, leading it into severe depression. In such scenario it would probably be richer, and the loss of its eastern claims actually will make it a more modern, industralised country.
Since though Pilsudski faction would remain influential expect civilian strife within the political leadership, with eventual turn over to fascism under Russian-supported endecja.
Such Poland would probably have strained relationship with Britain since it would encourage Jewish emigration to Palestine in agressive manner.

As to East Prussia and Danzig-we might see some kind of Conservative Germany refugee.

Elsewhere the things might interesting as well-both Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia would probably be strongly allied to White Russia, while if Hungary turns communist it would become a German ally, using communism with the aim of gaining its territorial claims.
 
We really need to determine how WWI ends in the west: the idea I had was that the war drags on till things collapse in revolution, and the British and the French are too exhausted to "liberate" Germany past the Rhine. OTOH, there is talk of a Versailles-type imposed peace treaty, which is inconsistent with this. Unless the Red revolutionary regime out-and-out surrenders, they are _not_ going to give up on East Prussia, and even German scratch forces are not going to be a walkover.

(BTW: if the war goes on another year or two, what happens to the Ottoman Empire?)

Bruce
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I agree that we need to work out some end to the war. I wonder, thought, that if the Red revolution breaks out after Versailles, would the Entente really be able to stop it? I mean, they were pretty exhausted as it was by that point. Would they really be willing to push into Germany to stop this rebellion?

I really think Biggy's got something there with regards to post-War Poland, r.e. more concessions to it in the Silesia and East Prussia while its eastern border more or less corresponds to the Curzon Line. Dmowski becoming the primary leader of Poland rather than Pilsudski makes lots of sense, and Biggy's right to point out that this is definitely going to lead to some civil strife.

While the Russians and Poland may have amiable relations at first, I really think things are going to deteriorate when the fascists (Mladorossi or whatever it's going to be called) come to power; Russians never were very comfortable with Polish independence, and revanchism is going to be really big.

I really like the idea of a sort of Junker rump state in East Prussia is a really cool idea. I can definitely see Ludendorff running the place, perhaps with Wilhelm III on the throne.
 

Blair152

Banned
What would happen to World History, if Russia held out, or the February Revolution failed, coupled with a Triumphant Russian Victory in the Great War, with a defeated Germany that became and maintained the only Communist Government in the world? Would Poland and Austria, as well as Czechoslovakia be invaded by Communist Germany? Indeed would Poland even exist? Would a sucessful Communist Germany invade the West? What would be the outcome? Would Hitler be an enemy of, or a ally of the Communist Authorities? What do you think?:D
Hitler probably would have joined the German Communist Party. As for Russia, maybe Nicholas II would have abdicated in favor of his son, Alexei,
knowing that he wouldn't survive. After Alexei's death, short term, Grand
Duke Mikhail, (Michael), would be nothing more than place-holder. Who'd
be next in line for the Russian throne? Maybe the oldest daughter of Nikolai and Alexandra.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Hitler probably would have joined the German Communist Party.
Absolutely not. Hitler's virulent anti-Marxism and obsession with the völkisch movement predate World War I. He didn't join the Leftists when their numbers exploded after the War, so why on earth would he join them in this alternate?
As for Russia, maybe Nicholas II would have abdicated in favor of his son, Alexei, knowing that he wouldn't survive. After Alexei's death, short term, Grand Duke Mikhail, (Michael), would be nothing more than place-holder. Who'd be next in line for the Russian throne? Maybe the oldest daughter of Nikolai and Alexandra.
I don't see why Michael would be a placeholder, why would you say that? He'd be just as legitimate a monarch as Nicholas was. As for any of Nicholas and Alexandra's children, they're out of luck; women aren't allowed to ascend to the Russian throne.

After Michael, the next in line for the throne would be Grand Duke Cyril (Kirill) Vladimirovich, Nicholas and Michael's paternal cousin.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
What do people think of the following for a resurrected Moscow Patriarchate in a White-victory Russia?

  • [FONT=&quot]Tikhon[FONT=&quot]: Born Vasily Ivanovich Bellavin. Patriarch of Moscow from 1917 to 1925. Same as in OTL since he was universally respected.[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] (17 March, 1865 – 10 August, 1925)
[/FONT]
  • [FONT=&quot]Antony II[FONT=&quot]: Born Aleksey Pavlovich Khrapovitsky. Patriarch of Moscow from 1925-1936. Formerly Metropolitan Antony of Kiev. Far more conservative than his predecessor and a favorite of the Black Hundreds. Played a big role in suppressing the establishment of a separate Ukrainian Orthodox Church.[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] (17 March, 1863 – 10 August, 1936)
[/FONT]
  • [FONT=&quot]Serafim II[FONT=&quot]: Born Aleskandr Ivanovich Lukyanov. Patriarch of Moscow from 1936-????. Major Russian religious expat in OTL who lauded the Wehrmacht's invasion of the USSR and the Nazis' crusade against "Judaeo-Bolshevism." He sounds right up the fascists' alley, in my opinion.[/FONT][/FONT]
(23 August, 1879 – ???? [died 18 February, 1959 IOTL])

I suppose a follow-up question I have would be, would the Whites resurrect the Patriarchate? I know that there was a strong movement towards this in the lead up to World War I, so I'm sure there's still a lot of sympathy there, not to mention that this would even further curtail the power of the monarchy, which most people will want.


That being said, I could certainly see the Patriarchate being resurrected in the '20s only to have it disestablished once more as the fascists come to power and return the trappings (but not actual power) of caesaropapism to the Tsar.
 
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Wolfpaw

Banned
I really like this idea, so I'm going to keep bumping.

Anybody have any ideas with regards to getting a Red Germany and suggestions over what path it develops along (Luxemburgism vs. Dictatorship)?
 
Just a wee map to go with the concept...

(The Association of Nations is a League of Nations equivalent. Turkey got it worse than OTL thanks to the war dragging on longer)

Bruce

RedGermany.png
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I quite like the map, Munro. But can I make the small request that East Prussia be a rump Junker state? Not only do I think it plausible, but I think it's a really cool idea, too :D
 
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