I've never really got how people believe that voters who voted for a party which was formed entirely on the basis that Labour was too left-wing would have all voted for that party had that option not being available. A priori it's a strange belief - but as you say, the actual evidence on second preferences confirms that Alliance voters mildly preferred the Tories over Labour as their second preference. As such, as you say, it probably slightly helped Labour.
The Falklands is also not reckoned to not be a decisive factor these days either, though it's generally believed it contributed to the scale, rather than the outcome.
Its tough to know how much effect the Falklands had on numbers of votes. But I do think it was v.important for Thatcher's national image in terms of where she got placed in the overall national consciousness (as opposed to those who like or disliked her policies and how she went about enacting them).
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