A failed Manifest Destiny

Jasen777

Donor
A defeat of the Mexico City campaign doesn't change much (for Mexico) - if some officers are killed it could have an impact of a possible future U.S. Civil War.

The U.S. still has California and Texas and Mexico ain't getting them back. Neither is Mexico suddenly going to get it's act together and be a threat to U.S. territory - civil war or no civil war. By that point Manifest Destiny has already been achieved.
 
Santa Anna and Mexico's best chance at deterring Manifest Destiny would be recognizing Texan independence to the full extent of their claims(Rio Grande & Santa Fe), on condition that they don't join the United States and they make no further territorial claims on Mexican territory(Mainly keep Lamar's group honest).

That should enable Mexico to hang on to most of New Mexico/Arizona and California as Texas would serve as a "buffer state" between Mexico and the US. Mexico could even get Great Britain to arbitrate the treaty to keep Texas honest on their word on both accounts.

No doubt there's going to be some version of the Bear Flag revolt during the Gold Rush, but with no official US support, it may very well get crushed and Mexico could net a lot of the profits from the Rush.

I'll agree with most of this. The use of Texas as a buffer state between the US and Mexico is workable. However, Mexico couldn't hold onto California if it put everything it had into it.

Mexico could ring its northern portion with neutral buffer states such as California, Desert and Texas, which would still see it possessing New Mexico/Arizona and extending to the Great Basin.
 
The Mexican's winning is a very hard thing. Santa Anna becoming an absolute dictator during the was is also equally as hard (or harder).

For the first part: As already said there were two major fronts in the war, one on the north and one on the center of Mexico (three if we count California). By the time Scott landed in Veracruz, the north was pretty much already fully occupied. Even if the central front is fought to a standstill, the North would advance further south. It would take much longer but the US is eventually capable of advancing further south. However without taking Mexico City it would be almost impossible to make Mexico sue for peace. In fact even in OTL major Mexican officials had to be bribed so they'd accept to begin peace negotiations. Thus the war would prolong itself for quite a while. But ultimately it would probably still result in a Mexican loss, though maybe in a better position than in OTL.
As for Santa Anna becoming an absolute dictator during the war, it is near impossible. He did come back in 1853 to presidency even after he lost the war. But during the war he was at the bottom of his popularity. Part of the problem for Mexico was that many officials refused to take orders from him. A prolonged war would probably result in filtering those who are incapable of leading out of the picture. Secondly at this time Mexico is very divided internally, Yucatan is trying to get its independence, even considering annexation to the US. While Puebla and Tlaxcala do not really care what the outcome of the war is as long as Chruch property is respected. In OTL once Scott promised the Bishop that we would not damage Chruch property and that the US would respect Catholic authority. The Bishop hosted the invading army in Puebla and allowed them to pass through their state safely. This allowed Scott to form the Mexican Spy Company, a counter guerrilla force of Mexican mercenaries employed by the US army. Thanks to the Bishop and the Spy Company Scott's advance into the capital was quite fast.

Could Mexico be extremely lucky and do better than OTL. Yes. And it depends most on who is rotating in and out power at what point though out the war. If you have Santa Anna on the battlefield and away from the presidency and have a moderate on the presidency, it would have helped in rallying the people against the Americans and signing a treaty even if the US had not taken the capital.
As for the fronts a more decisive victory at La Angostura and Tampico (both Mexican semi-victories in OTL) would probably stop the advance from the north for a while. And if the Bishop and Dominguez (leader of The MexSpyCo.) would have been patriotic enough or payed enough by the Mexican government so that they would support the Mexico the US would have a much harder time advancing through the national highway.

The more the war is prolonged the less popular it would be in the US. Already by its end Polk was being accused of starting a war for his own merit. Plus the whigs no held the majority on the senate. Prolong it for a year and Polk would be forced to explain certain executive actions he made, maybe even being impeached. Ultimately if the war is prolonged past Polks administration the US could, and possibly would, accept Mexico's original terms under Herrera and Atocha. Those are: Texas with a border at the Nueces river, and California north of Monterey Bay. This still gives the US most Texas, Santa Fe, northern California, the Colorado rockies and the great basin. Mexico gets to keep Monterey, Southern California, New Mexico minus Santa Fe, and the Nueces Strip.

Ultimately the Nueces Stip would probably be sold to the US at some point, unless Mexico figures out how to populate it with Mexicans very quickly.

Santa Anna could come back to power afterwards. After all he has proved that he is a capable political survivor. But his fate would be similar to OTL's. A coup once his rule gets too dictatorial the writing of a new constitution and a Mexican Civil war between liberales and conservadores for a few years.
 
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