After lurking for so many years around this forum and reading lots of woks on the subject I’ve come to have to opinion that and one of the most important “causality nexus” in the TL of WWII was the “halt order” from the OKW to the panzers approaching Dunkirk on the 24.05.1940. I know it has already been discussed to death the context and details of the events on this date and possible consequences and alternate historical developments of different, or lack of, orders to stop the advance.
It is not my intention to discuss the reasons behind the historical events. Rather I was looking into creating a scenario for a Mod I’m creating for HOI4 based on a post-war reality following a WWII where the Panzers do not stop short of the beaches and port of Dunkirk. The thing is: the more I thought about the divergence point, the more I was dwelling into the different details of such an occurrence.
After some thought on the matter I’ve defined a sketch for an alternate TL but before proceeding streamlining my thoughts on the subject I would like to request my friends here to give me their opinion on different details like the immediate and medium/long term consequences in military, political and general historical events.
So, as a kick off my first point of discussion is: what would be the most likely reason for non-existing or somehow failed “halt order” to the German Panzer units approaching the Dunkirk environs on the 24.05.1940? I feel this is the first thing to be defined because the details for such a POD I believe would be important on how the Wehrmacht would react on the immediate hours following a German advance into Dunkirk – would they be ordered to retreat? Would OKW prefer to reinforce as much as possible the advancing troops to allow them to resist an Allied counter attack against Axis held Dunkirk? Would the British commit their home fighter reserve over the surrounded Allied troops pocket to help them try to break the siege?
So, we know that while meeting with von Rundstedt on the 24.05.1940 Hitler sanctioned his advice to halt the panzers West and South of Dunkirk while the infantry would attack the British at Arras where they had developed significant efforts to counter the German thrust. We also know that the leading elements of the German armored columns were within eye sight of the Beaches to the South of Dunkirk and the port itself.
After thinking about different possibilities (Hitler having had a migraine and not wanting to listen to his General's advice and so making a different decision, Rundstedt falling and breaking a leg before the meeting with the Fuhrer and so on) I’m most fond with the following: the leading Panzers do not receive the alt order due to a momentary faulty radio on the commanders vehicle and, not having any kind of resistance before them, two dozen German tanks advance on the city and report back that the beaches, port and the city itself have been secured by the panzers spear tips and request infantry support to hold the lines.
So, what do you think? Is this a plausible POD? Do you have any other suggestions that lead to the same result: the German advance is not halted leading to a total enclosure of the Allied troops without access to the sea?