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A Dream Deferred Does it dry up like a raisin in the sun? Or fester like a sore- and then run? Does it stink like rotten meat? Or crust and sugar over- like a syrupy sweet? Maybe it just sags like a heavy load. Or does it explode? -Langston Hughes
§-One: Whether that nation can long endure
It all began with a few words in a letter. To be specific, in a letter from John Strode Barbour Jr. to his father, the appropriately named John Strode Barbour Sr. As Barbour Sr. read the letter, bone tired after another long day of balloting, some words leapt out at him. “...did I mention I’ve been corresponding with Senator James? He had some suggestions for the railroad business I’ve been involved in. No Free-soiler, thankfully, and he seems to have some fresh ideas for steam mills in the south and maybe Virginia…” John Barbour Sr. finished the letter, blew out the candle, and prepared to go to sleep. But before he did, he tucked the name away in the back of his head.
[Columbia, TN, Present Day]
For a small town in the middle of the south, it could come as somewhat of a surprise that Columbia, Tennessee has not just one, but two major museums. One is the James K. Polk Presidential Library (located conveniently close to the former president’s residence) and the other is the less important and correspondingly smaller Gideon J. Pillow Vice Presidential Library.
Most historians are more interested in James K. Polk’s papers, naturally. He increased the size of the U.S. by more than a third and for that alone will probably always be ranked among the top 5 Presidents of the U.S. The number of books that are variants on “1845-1873: The Pre-Crisis Era” seems destined to keep growing, as long as historians insist that Polk was the pivotal figure of the antebellum era.
Professor David Rice vehemently disagrees. He’s one of the few historians to go to the Gideon J. Pillow library instead. What he found there, he says, convinced him that it was the generation of leaders after Polk who truly shaped his legacy. Men like Vice President Pillow himself, a little-known New Hampshire Senator named Franklin Pierce, and of course, 14th President of the United States, Charles James. [Transcript of Interview with Professor Rice]
JB: So you’ve said in the past - many times I know, that you aren’t interested in counterfactuals at all. You’ve called them “reading the entrails of history” was that it? So what changed your mind for this new book on Francis Pierce?
DR: Franklin Pierce, actually. Nothing changed my mind; I’m not interested in contemplating how a hypothetical Pierce presidency would have gone. I’m just interested that there was a movement; a conspiracy almost, to put such an unqualified, pro-southern man in the white house. You have Pierce, who hasn’t even been a Senator in 10 years, is bordering on alcoholism, and whose military career wasn’t exactly spectacular.
JB: So why was he even considered for the presidency?
DR: Basically, 1852 - that’s the year he was a potential candidate - was really a year for dark horses. The main contenders - James Buchanan, Douglas, and Cass were all very weak. So that’s why a bunch of power brokers; Thomas Hart Benton, Gideon Pillow, and some other Mexican War veterans were bopping around looking for a candidate. First it was going to be Levi Woodbury, only he died, which kind of took him out of consideration. Then they thought maybe General William O. Butler, but he managed to alienate the north so he was out of consideration. So Franklin Pierce was kind of a last resort, since he was pliant and a sure protector of slavery’s interests. Their plan, which is what I’m really focusing on in the next book, was to make all the leading contenders deadlock, and then have the Virginia delegation bring forward Pierce’s name so he could come in as a Mexican War hero, acceptable to all factions and little known. Then Pillow would be his VP and Pierce could be a puppet for pro-slavery forces.
JB: Yet obviously that didn’t happen. Why not?
DR: So it was the Virginia delegation led by John Barbour that the Pierce people were relying on right? The Virginians were actually pretty tepid about Pierce. So on the 34th ballot, about 3 days in, when it’s time for them to vote for a dark horse, they hesitate before choosing Pierce. Some people in the delegation want it to be a New Yorker, maybe Daniel Dickinson or Henry Murphy, and most are uncomfortable about Pierce. Of course what happened was maybe a little unexpected … [Baltimore, MD June 5th 1852]
“Who?” Thomas J. Randolph said, with some astonishment.
John Barbour sighed. “As I said, Charles James. The Senator from Rhode Island? He’s young, personable, supported the Compromise of 1850, and unlike Pierce, or Dickinson, he knows his way around industry.”
Randolph muttered something under his breath that sounded astonishingly similar to “Just another Yankee money-grubber”, but John Barbour could see that thankfully, the rest of the Virginia delegation looked intrigued at the prospect of breaking the deadlock.
Barbour, like any good politician, had saved his trump card, which had taken a little bit of research the day prior. “Not just any businessman I think” and here he smiled “did I mention he’s also a general?”
Even Randolph’s expression began to soften; and the rest of the delegates let out muted cheers, and then went to shake Barbour’s hand.
[Transcript of Interview with Professor Rice]
DR: … of course what happened was maybe a little unexpected. And ironic, too, that James was the one to get nominated on the 34th ballot, and then sweep the Pierce supporters. JB: What do you mean, Ironic? One New Englander general instead of another?
DR: Well both James and Pierce were basically unknowns at the time, but, to put it in concise terms - James openly supported the Compromise of 1850, and opposed further expansion of slavery, whereas Pierce’s support for the south - clear in the historical record - might have inflamed the sectional balance, or, more likely, even prolonged the antebellum period
JB: Well I’ll definitely be excited to read more about it in your book, Professor Rice, but this is all the time I have for now so I’ll be seeing you. Clearly you have a wealth of information on the topic.
DR: Indeed. But I was glad to have you over here to talk, Mr. Booth. I hope your research for your own writing goes well.
Total 1,556,364 1,305,925 158,179 238 58 0 [Mini-Counterfactuals of the 1850s : by Nathan Amundson]
… and so for want of a bowl of cherries, the Civil War could have happened 30 years earlier, and probably been resolved much less violently.
COUNTERFACTUAL #3 - Slavery in Nebraska & Kansas?
Most of the western states had fairly easy paths to admission before the 1870s Deadlock. One interesting footnote however, is in the creation of Nebraska Territory. Senator Stephen Douglas, a leader in the Democratic Party at that time, originally proposed the creation of Nebraska Territory in 1853, with no stipulations to the status of slavery. Douglas’ goal was simply to organize the territory as the first step to building a transcontinental railroad; with Chicago as the terminus. However several southern Whigs sought to make political capital by allowing slavery in the new Nebraska Territory, and were ultimately backed by several prominent Democrats as well, most importantly Senator Atchison of Missouri and Senator Douglas of Illinois. For a time it even seemed as if they would be able to swing the large Democratic majority behind them and pass the bill. President James seriously opposed the bill however, as he would most attempts to extend slavery during his term. The idea of a slave state of Nebraska faded rather quickly, and James came up with a deal that pacified both Atchison and Douglas with good old fashioned 1850s patronage. All of the Unorganized Territory north of the 38th parallel (the northern border of New Mexico in the east) become the single free territory of Nebraska (removing the separate free territory of Kansas was a large concession to the south) and for the transcontinental railroad, which the dispute had originally been about, James indicated behind the scenes that he would work for a railroad route which went through both Kansas City and Chicago. But what if President James had not successfully resolved the issue? Say he had folded to the south, or if instead of him, there had been a more pro-southern Democrat like Lewis Cass? Nebraska would likely have been admitted as multiple territories with “popular sovereignty”, that is, the ability to vote on slavery? Most likely, the southern area around the Kansas River, populated by Missourians, would have become a slave state. The sectional balance would have tipped at least slightly, and the plantation belt could have spread as far as Chisholm. By the Civil War, “Kansas” could be a firmly established slave state, with the destruction that would ultimately entail, and in fact would probably prevent North Texas staying in the Union. And after the war? The solid south, and it’s dark legacy of slavery, would have extended much farther west.
COUNTERFACTUAL #4 - Fillmore elected in 1856? [Washington, DC June 1st 1854]
President James groaned, something he had been in the habit of doing lately. His Cabinet, meanwhile, was loudly disagreeing with him, something it had been in the habit of doing ever since he was elected. And even more since an American ship had been seized by Cuba.
“But Mr. President, this Empire City Affair is the perfect excuse to take Cuba. The American people are screaming for war.” said Secretary Downs, a little touchily. After all, he was the one who had argued for this brinkmanship from the beginning.
“For the last time, I don’t want Cuba! I don’t care what the American people say, the United States do not need that malarial island.”
Weller’s eyes were almost escaping from their sockets at this point.
“Yes, nothing more than a malarial island, peopled with mulattoes and Spaniards. And I wish that the Cabinet, my Cabinet, would stop trying to intrigue behind my back to seize it. You’ve done nothing but push me away from internal improvements, what I really want to focus on.”
Marcy gave a little snort at this, and Downs, face mutinous, stood up to respond.
“On the contrary, you seem determined to frustrate us, Mr. President. Last year, when we had that dispute in the Mesilla valley - you refused to just buy the territory. Settle it with diplomacy when the damn Mexicans can’t even choose their government and stick to it? And in the Nebraska lands, you seem just fine letting hordes of abolitionists come right down to the Missouri border. No Cuba - goddammit Mr. President, why are you afraid of America’s destiny?” He looked about ready to spit, and glared directly at the President. “I’m not afraid of Santa Anna - what a joke; I’m not afraid of America’s destiny - although I see it in maybe a different direction.” A pause. The President was weighing very carefully what he was about to say.