A distraction removed, A Saddam falls in 1991 ATL

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POD

Last Days of the Gulf War

On February the 26th an infamous incident where to occur which would be remembered as the Highway of Death where fleeing Iraqi forces, alleged Kuwaiti hostages and refugees (collaborators with the Iraqi occupation, mainly PLO aligned militants and their families) where cut of by the cluster bombing of the front end of the mass boxing the remaining vehicles boxed in leaving them open to subsequent airstrikes (Turkey shoot) and the survivors of that came under the attack by coalition ground unites.

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The end result was a long line of vehicles that covered the highway. The exact death toll remains a controversial topic as an exact figure has never been formally established with the most plausible estimated at around 500-600 (others claimed it was in the thousands thou it has never been prove either way) . The effect was to nearly lead to the Gulf War ending the next day due to the administration wanting good relations with the world media which portrayed this as an extreme over use of force of a defeated enemy, however some of the Generals namely Norman Schwarzkopf, Jr. argued for a limited continuation (namely against the Republican guard). The end was results was that all ground offensives were halted on the 28th and a limited air offensive against which whilst was officially against special occupation unites was really the Republican Guard. The result was a continued air war until March the 2nd which saw the Republican guard lost approximately at least 90% of its forces which would prove a disaster for Saddam's regime in the days to come.

During this time negotiations for a cease-fire were under way so by March the 3rd a cease-fire was agreed upon*. However events were to take a turn for the unexpected when on that same day in the Iraq town of Basra a disgruntled Iraqi tank gunner returning from Kuwait fired upon a statue of Saddam to the applause of onlooking solders...

*However one of the conditions which would hinder the Government was that Iraqi Military was not to use fixed wing aircraft over Iraq which limited the regimes ability to fight the rebellion.

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General Norman Schwarzkopf
 
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So this is my first TL so all criticism is welcome to help the quality and all updates are subject to edits depending on feedback.
 
Yes, about half the Republican Guard got out and still you probably would have gotten closer to 90% if the war continued for two more days, thus the men who would reconquer much of Iraq for Saddam would have been gone. Good start to the TL I look forward to see how it goes.
 
Yes, about half the Republican Guard got out and still you probably would have gotten closer to 90% if the war continued for two more days, thus the men who would reconquer much of Iraq for Saddam would have been gone. Good start to the TL I look forward to see how it goes.

Thanks for that and I will edit accordingly. ;)
 
Thanks for that and I will edit accordingly. ;)

It's a very good time such a change.

Saddam had yet to let in the jihadists and allow them to build connections with his security forces during training. The Iraqi middle class still exists. Many more moderate pro-Western Shia are alive and the Faith movement hasn't gotten too deep yet among the army and RG.

It was a very different Iraq then the religiously radicalizing nightmare it became by 2003.

In the run-up to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, Saddam publicly invited foreign mujahedeen to come to Iraq to resist the invaders. Thousands came and Iraqi officials showed them off to the media as they were trained by Iraqi instructors. Many stayed, eventually joining the insurgency against American troops and their Iraqi allies.

One initiative that eventually fed Saddam veterans into IS came in the mid-1990s when Saddam departed from the stringent secular principles of his ruling Baath party and launched the "Faith Campaign," a state-sponsored drive to Islamize Iraqi society.

"Most of the army and intelligence officers serving with IS are those who showed clear signs of religious militancy during Saddam days," the intelligence chief said. "The Faith Campaign ... encouraged them."

While attending the Iraqi army's artillery school nearly 20 years ago, Ali Omran remembers one major well. An Islamic hard-liner, he once chided Omran for wearing an Iraqi flag pin into the bathroom because it included the words "God is great." "It is forbidden by religion to bring the name of the Almighty into a defiled place like this," Omran recalled being told by Maj. Taha Taher al-Ani.

Omran didn't see al-Ani again until years later, in 2003. The Americans had invaded Iraq and were storming toward Baghdad. Saddam Hussein's fall was imminent. At a sprawling military base north of the capital, al-Ani was directing the loading of weapons, ammunition and ordnance into trucks to spirit away. He took those weapons with him when he joined Tawhid wa'l-Jihad, a forerunner of al-Qaida's branch in Iraq.

Now al-Ani is a commander in the Islamic State group, said Omran, who rose to become a major general in the Iraqi army and now commands its 5th Division fighting IS. He kept track of his former comrade through Iraq's tribal networks and intelligence gathered by the government's main counterterrorism service, of which he is a member. It's a common trajectory.

http://www.militarytimes.com/story/...-dominated-ex-officers-saddams-army/31332975/

The article is a bit wrong, the religious radicalization movement actually started in 1986 with Saddam fearing all groups during the Iran/Iraq War turning on him, but the Faith movement went into hyper drive after the Gulf War.
 
The Rebellion part 1

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Following the shooting of the statue an army officer (the majority of Iraqi forces save the Republican guard were conscripts and thus weren't ideological loyal to the regime and could only be counted on to defend Iraq) by the name of Muhammad Ibrahim Wali (picture an other information are unavailable due to his post rebellion which to remain out of the public eye) gathered many military vehicles to start attacking government buildings and prisons with the support of the civilian population.

News of this combined with broadcasts from the Americans that had been going on sense the start of the war (whose impact proved a great surprise to many within the US) had the effect of triggering other rebellions across Iraq. In Naaf an actual gun battle broke out between desserts and a few loyalists near the cities Imam Ali Mosque. The rebels magnet to secure and and the defeat of the loyalists caused many loyal Ba'ath Party officials to flee or risk execution by the rebels.

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US leaflets here are portraying Saddam as death itself

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Victorious rebel forces outside the Mosque


Within days every major city in Southern Iraq had fallen into rebel hands ( Amarah, Diwaniya, Hilla, Karbala, Kut, Nasiriyah and Samawah.) All of the smaller cities had also fallen to the revolution as well. One disadvantage of these rebels was the lack of co-ordination as there was a mixture of disaffected Ba'athists, communists, other Arab nationalists and Islamists* whilst having the same goal of removing Saddam weren't completely united plus there largely arose spontaneously.

The Kurdish uprisings to the North in contrast were highly organised between the KDP (Kurdish Democratic Party) and the PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) were well planned and co-ordinated and the defection of the Government recruited Kurdish militia the Jash (a home guard) gave considerable forces to the rebels in the North.

The uprisings here begun on March the 5th and saw the groups mentioned above (who's collective forces are called the Peshmerga) combined with Kurdish Islamists and Communists joined by thousands of protestors took control of every major city in North Iraq minus Kirkuk and Mosel (both of which fell to them latter but that will be discussed in future parts)

The effect of both of these offensives was to mean that by March the 7th (before the height of rebel gains before the start of the counter offensive which saw 14 out of 18 of Iraq's provinces fall to rebel hands) Saddam tried to stop the uprisings by offering Senior positions to Kurdish and Shia leaders which was flatly refused. Saddam as a results decided to gather what was left of the loyalists for a counter offensive which success or failure would determine not only the future of Iraq but the region (it should be noted many consider the outcome fixed at this point given the destruction of the Republican Guard).

*SCIRI/ Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq was a notable but minor one, made up of Pro-Iranian Iraqi's who were trained by Iran crossed into Iraq and focused on building bases of support around Najaf and Karbala, two shia holy cities. They however instead alienated most of the population with their extreme interpretation of Islam and Pro-Iranain slogans which in the post-Saddam elections would be used by the Iraqi National List coalition against them and the Dowa party despite the latter efforts to distance themselves from SCIRI's actions and behaviour.

Outside of update thanks for your support Lost Freeway I appreciate it
 
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Very interesting POD, i'll be following.:) It will be interesting too see if the moderate secularist can hold off the Islamists post Saddam. Also I'm curious as to effects on the wider Middle East.
 
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I would strongly suggest you proofread your updates. They are filled with typos and the sentences are too long. I've had to read them multiple times as they are hard to understand. This distracts too much from the content.

Aside from lots and lots of typos, the Schwarzkopf photo is unnecessary and breaks the sentence and paragraph into two.
 
The failed counter offensive

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A loyalist tank knocked out during the offensive. Sites like these were rare due to the amount of Republican guard vehicles wiped out during the last days of the Gulf War.

The offensive/offensives (Depending on who you ask. The Northern Part of the offensive was several days behind the Southern offensive due to the time it took to deploy the units which has led some to consider it to be two operations but either way the end result was the same) begun at the 18th (22nd in the North), during which time the rebels managed to acquire all but four of Iraq's provinces.This was due to the difficulty in finding 'sufficient' transport and attack vehicles in the operation as the Gulf War had effectively broken the Republican Guard. One thing the regime did have an advantage in was airpower, specifically the use of helicopters as fixed wing aircraft were forbidden as a cease-fire condition and the fact most coalition unites hadn't been moved out of the region yet meant Saddam wasn't about to go against it.

Another advantage was a stockpile of chemical weapons (given to him by the Reagan Administration, during Iraq's war against Iran in the 1980's, the UAE, Singapore, the Netherlands, India and West Germany also contributed to this at various other points) and Saddam hoped the use of both of these would make up for the lack of ground troops. The opening clashes whilst managing to inflict heavy causalities (Estimates for total rebel losses at the end of the rebellion range from 25,000-60,000 most of which are civilian causalities ) on the rebels it failed to effectively knock them out of their positions in the cities.

By the 28th the Offensive was halted and regime units pulled back to the remaining cities still under Regime control having lost even more forces in a futile effort to end the rebellion. The majority of the troops involved were lost (mostly to to defection when the numerical advantage of the rebels become apparent and the the failure to dislodge them form their positions).

Not only did the offensive fail but it had the effect of provoking international backlash against the regime which got momentum behind those advocating support of the rebels.*

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One of many images circulating the worlds media in the aftermath of the chemical weapons attack.

President Bush Sr announced that the US would establishing a no flay zone over Iraq and he was joined in this by most of the original coalition in the Gulf War. The rebels knowing know they had American airpower covering them begun preparing for the final assault on the last regime strongholds. ^



* Before the regime counter offensive there was a divide on whether the US and the coalition should get involved in the rebellion and the divide was down the middle right until Saddam used chemical weapons and it become clear global opinion was in favour of action against what was left of Saddam's regime

^The kurds had already semi-begun by finally managing to capture Kirkuk on the 31st of March but become divided on their next move with the PUK, lead by Jalal Talabani, advocating an Advance on Mosul then Bagdad and the KDP, led by Mustafa Barzani, not wanting to move outside of areas which would end up in what is today known as the KRG/Kurdistan Regional Government. The remains groups eventually came up with a compromise plan of attacking Mosul and then deciding if they should advance to Baghdad from there. Janal Talabani would latter prove to have a major role in post Saddam's Iraq.
 
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The failed counter offensive

...several days behind the Southern offensive due to the time it took to deploy the [units] which has led some to consider it to be two operations but either way the end [result] was the same) begun at the 18th (22nd in the North), during which time the rebels managed to acquire all but four of Iraq's provinces.[ ]This was due to the difficulty in finding 'sufficient' transport ... and the fact most coalition [units] hadn't been moved out of the region yet meant Saddam wasn't about to go against it.

...war against Iran in the 1980's) and Saddam hoped the use... inflict heavy causalities[.] [Estimates] for total [rebel] losses at the end of the rebellion range from 25,000-60,000[,] most of which are civilian causalities)...

By the 28th the Offensive was halted and regime [units] pulled back to the remaining cities still under [their/state] control having lost even more forces in a futile effort to end the rebellion[.] [The majority] of the troops involved [were lost] (mostly [due] to defection when the numerical advantage of the rebels become apparent [and after] the failure to dislodge them form their positions).

Not only did the offensive fail but [it] had the effect of provoking international backlash against the regime which got momentum behind those advocating support of the rebels.*


One of many images circulating the world[']s media in the aftermath of the chemical weapons attack.

President Bush Sr announced that the US would establishing a no [fly] zone over Iraq and he was joined in this by most of the original coalition in the Gulf War. The rebels[,] knowing know they had American airpower covering them begun preparing (tense conflict) for the final assault on the last regime strongholds. ^



* Before the [R]egime counter offensive there was a divide on whether the US and the coalition should get involved in the rebellion and the divide was down the middle[,] right until Saddam used chemical weapons and it become clear global opinion was in favour of action against what was left of Saddam's regime[.]

^The [K]urds had already semi-begun by finally managing to capture Kirkuk on the 31st of March but become divided on their next move with the PUK, lead by Jalal Talabani, advocating an [a]dvance on [Mosul,] then [Baghdad] and the KDP, led by Mustafa Barzani, not wanting to move outside of areas which would end up in what is today known as the KRG/[(]Kurdistan Regional Government[)]. (run on sentence) The remains groups eventually came up with a compromise plan of attacking [Mosul] and then deciding if they should advance to [Baghdad] from there. Janal Talabani would latter prove to have a major role in post Saddam's Iraq.

Suggested corrections in square brackets and bolded, suggested removals are underlined. Grammatical issues in round brackets.

"Unit/Units", not "Unite". "Unite" means to join together previously separate actors.

Good idea, but could use proofreading.
 
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