A different wife for John, Prince of Asturias?

Which of these ladies would be the best alternate bride for John, Prince of Asturias?

  • Catherine of York (b. 1479)

    Votes: 5 31.3%
  • Joanna of Naples (b. 1479)

    Votes: 6 37.5%
  • Elisabeth of Bavaria (b. 1478)

    Votes: 1 6.3%
  • Barbara of Poland-Lithuania (b. 1478)

    Votes: 2 12.5%
  • Other (please explain who and why)

    Votes: 2 12.5%

  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
IOTL, John, Prince of Asturias (b. 1478), the only son of Isabella I of Castille and Ferdinand II of Aragon, married in 1495 Margaret of Austria (b. 1480), daughter of Holy Roman Emperor Maximilian, before his death in 1498.

While reading this thread (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-sforza-empress.278684/#post-17203036), I read that Maximilian tried to betroth Margaret to King Vladislaus II of Hungary in 1493. IOTL, the plans fell through, Vladislaus married Anne of Foix-Candale and Margaret married John. But if the plan with Vladislaus did work, then who else might have John been married to? Here are some possible candidates c. 1493-1495:

1. Catherine of York (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_of_York) - the second youngest daughter of King Edward IV of England and Elizabeth Woodville, but the youngest available, as her younger sister, Bridget, was made a nun very early on. According to author Alison Weir, she was apparently considered as a bride for John. IOTL, she married William Courtenay, a supporter of Henry Tudor before he fell out of favour.

2. Joanna of Naples (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joanna_of_Naples_(1478–1518)) - only child of King Ferdinand I of Naples and Joanna of Aragon, Ferdinand of Aragon's sister, making her John's paternal first cousin. IOTL, she married her nephew, Ferdinand II of Naples, in 1496, but he died 2-3 months after the wedding without issue. Then Isabella of Castile recommended her as a bride for Henry VII Tudor after Elizabeth of York died in 1503, but the marriage never went through and Joanna never remarried.

3. Elisabeth of Bavaria (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elisabeth_of_Bavaria_(1478–1504)) - eldest daughter of George 'the Rich', Duke of Bavaria-Landshut. IOTL, became George's sole heir after the death of her brother, Ludwig, in 1496, and married her first cousin, Rupert of the Palatinate, in 1499. After George's death, for her children, the Duchy of Palatine-Neuburg was created.

4. Barbara Jagiellon of Poland-Lithuania (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Jagiellon) - youngest daughter of King Casimir IV of Poland-Lithuania (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casimir_IV_Jagiellon)

I considered adding Lucrezia Borgia, but then thought that an illegitimate daughter, even the illegitimate daughter of a Pope, wouldn't be a big enough catch.

Any thoughts? If John survives, what effects might a different marriage alliance have?

Please leave a vote and a post explaining who you voted for and why.
 
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For Catherine of York you do need a surviving Edward IV or a successful succession by his son Edward V - my own various timelines had Catherine marry Juan - would work as any deal opposed to France and might be an obvious alliance for England and Spain if the English heir marries or attempts to marry Anne of Brittany - would also give Spain backing for its adventures in Italy against France.
Anne of Brittany for Juan was discussed as well - designed to ensure Anne succeeded in Brittany and had strong support against France (the same reason for a possible marriage of Anne to the future Edward V) but it came to nothing.

The dower would be an issue for Catherine and of course it matters who her sisters married eventually - Edward IV aims were - Elizabeth formally betrothed to the Dauphin but broken by France, Cecily to the Scots heir or the Duke of Albany, Anne of York was formally betrothed to Philip of Burgundy, Catherine aimed at Spain and Bridget appeared intended for a convent.
 
For Catherine of York you do need a surviving Edward IV or a successful succession by his son Edward V - my own various timelines had Catherine marry Juan - would work as any deal opposed to France and might be an obvious alliance for England and Spain if the English heir marries or attempts to marry Anne of Brittany - would also give Spain backing for its adventures in Italy against France.
Anne of Brittany for Juan was discussed as well - designed to ensure Anne succeeded in Brittany and had strong support against France (the same reason for a possible marriage of Anne to the future Edward V) but it came to nothing.

The dower would be an issue for Catherine and of course it matters who her sisters married eventually - Edward IV aims were - Elizabeth formally betrothed to the Dauphin but broken by France, Cecily to the Scots heir or the Duke of Albany, Anne of York was formally betrothed to Philip of Burgundy, Catherine aimed at Spain and Bridget appeared intended for a convent.

I considered adding Anne of Brittany, but she had been married to Charles VIII since 1491, and I personally feel that any attempt to marry Anne outside of France, especially with Louis XI on the throne, would be doomed to failure, unless she can be smuggled out of the country. And even then, the French could just probably just walk into Brittany without much trouble.

My personal preferences, despite not voting myself, are either Elisabeth of Bavaria or Barbara of Poland-Lithuania, both for expanding the Trastamara gene pool, because I find either interesting, and because there is preference for a Spanish infante/king marrying a Polish noblewoman.
 
Poland might work - if only just. A cool idea would be Juan for Barbara while one of his sisters marries Vladislav II or Jan Olbracht rather than a French girl.

Bavaria's gonna be awkward though. Unless her brother survives, Georg the Rich intended for her to inherit. I asked a while back on her brother surviving and ducal Bavaria having two competing lines (Bavaria-Munich and Bavaria-Landshut, which IIRC didn't get on - hence Lieschen's marriage to the Palatine branch), but it got no response. Which means Spain could end up minus the Low Countries but with Bavaria-Landshut instead. This would put them at odds with Maximilian, since the duke of Bavaria-Münich was his brother-in-law/nephew.
 
I considered adding Anne of Brittany, but she had been married to Charles VIII since 1491, and I personally feel that any attempt to marry Anne outside of France, especially with Louis XI on the throne, would be doomed to failure, unless she can be smuggled out of the country. And even then, the French could just probably just walk into Brittany without much trouble.

My personal preferences, despite not voting myself, are either Elisabeth of Bavaria or Barbara of Poland-Lithuania, both for expanding the Trastamara gene pool, because I find either interesting, and because there is preference for a Spanish infante/king marrying a Polish noblewoman.

It needs to be a bride who offers political advantage and no Castilian or Aragonese monarch had moved far from Western Europe in quite a while - Ferdinand isn't going to waste his son's marriage on a east European or German bride unless she is rolling in dosh or has strong family advantages.

Catherine of York is only a real option if the House of York survive (no Richard III at all) - she was the right age.
Likewise a surviving Edward IV means a different outcome in Brittany - hence Anne becomes available.
Margaret of Austria Burgundy (as in otl) remains a possibility - though if Anne gets a different fate in Brittany then Margaret remains the putative wife of Charles VIII.
If Juan lives a bit longer and his marriage is delayed then his father will strongly favour Joanna of Naples (an easy way for him to bring Naples into his sphere for good)
 
Either Catherine or Joana, the former creates an alliance against France and the later entrenches Spanish interests in Italy.

Elisabeth and Barbara offers nothing of value to Spain so I din't think they'll go through unless they are the absolute last.
 
Catherine or Anne of York with a surviving York dinasty in England. Either Edward IV survive longer or Richard is the (step)father of Edward V's queen. If Edward V is married to Margaret(Mary/Anne/Katherine) of Lancaster, then Anne of Brittany will likely became the second bride of Richard, Duke of York
 
5. Catherine of Navarre - Claims to Navarre
6. Isabeau of Brittany - Same age group, a cousin of John, Prince of Asturias
 
Catherine of Navarre seems like the best option here. Navarre in the Spanish fold would get rid of one headache on a list of headaches, along with securing the norther Spanish border.
 
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