A different way to stop Islam!

...Now that you're all here and breathing fire at me, I'll explain what I mean (it's not quite as inflammatory as it sounds and no, I haven't become a Republican troll in the last month. ;))

Most "Smaller Islam Post-622" timelines involve the Byzantines, for a couple of reasons: one, the Byzantines are the shield of Europe, and protecting Christendom is the (unspoken) urge behind a lot of Islam-gank timelines here. Second, the Byzantines are by far the strongest non-Muslim state west of China, going toe-to-toe with the Caliphate(s) for the half a millennia, and, between ~850 and 1071, arguably the strongest state west of China period. Third, everyone loves the Byzantines.

But - the big moment in Islamic history, when it really took off and beat out Alexander and the Mongols for biggest, fastest, most permanent conquests, was the back-to-back battles of Yarmuk and Qadasiya in 636/7, where they defeated the Romans and Persians respectively and opened pretty much the whole Middle East to their armies. The reason - or at least a reason - why this was possible was that both empires, and their armies, were still exhausted from a two-decade war that (unlike previous Roman-Persian border wars) chewed up pretty much everything between the Nile and the Zagros.

Now, the usual (as far as I can tell) way out of this is to somehow get rid of the whole war, or at least have the Romans spectacularly more successful, leaving them better able to hold off the storm out of Arabia, after which the stronger, Egypt-and-Levant-including Roman Empire should be able to deal much better than the relatively impoverished Byzantines could. However, how about the Persians? If Heraclius gets knocked off in the chaos of the 610s and is replaced by Nikephoros Inkompetantos or whoever, could the Persians lock down the Levant fast enough and firmly enough to fight off the Arabs? Any thoughts? (It took a while for the Byzantines IOTL to accept that the Middle East was gone, but for the sake of argument assume that Khoroses II can beat them crushingly enough that the attempt at reconquest is postponed a couple of decades.)
 
...Now that you're all here and breathing fire at me, I'll explain what I mean (it's not quite as inflammatory as it sounds and no, I haven't become a Republican troll in the last month. ;))

Most "Smaller Islam Post-622" timelines involve the Byzantines, for a couple of reasons: one, the Byzantines are the shield of Europe, and protecting Christendom is the (unspoken) urge behind a lot of Islam-gank timelines here. Second, the Byzantines are by far the strongest non-Muslim state west of China, going toe-to-toe with the Caliphate(s) for the half a millennia, and, between ~850 and 1071, arguably the strongest state west of China period. Third, everyone loves the Byzantines.

But - the big moment in Islamic history, when it really took off and beat out Alexander and the Mongols for biggest, fastest, most permanent conquests, was the back-to-back battles of Yarmuk and Qadasiya in 636/7, where they defeated the Romans and Persians respectively and opened pretty much the whole Middle East to their armies. The reason - or at least a reason - why this was possible was that both empires, and their armies, were still exhausted from a two-decade war that (unlike previous Roman-Persian border wars) chewed up pretty much everything between the Nile and the Zagros.

Now, the usual (as far as I can tell) way out of this is to somehow get rid of the whole war, or at least have the Romans spectacularly more successful, leaving them better able to hold off the storm out of Arabia, after which the stronger, Egypt-and-Levant-including Roman Empire should be able to deal much better than the relatively impoverished Byzantines could. However, how about the Persians? If Heraclius gets knocked off in the chaos of the 610s and is replaced by Nikephoros Inkompetantos or whoever, could the Persians lock down the Levant fast enough and firmly enough to fight off the Arabs? Any thoughts? (It took a while for the Byzantines IOTL to accept that the Middle East was gone, but for the sake of argument assume that Khoroses II can beat them crushingly enough that the attempt at reconquest is postponed a couple of decades.)

Maybe. One of the things that facilitated the Islamic conquest was that an entire generation of Syrians had no experience of Roman rule, and the Byzantine administration, trying to reassert itself, caused frictions. I'm not sure how enthusiastic the population was about Persian rule, either...
 
Maybe. One of the things that facilitated the Islamic conquest was that an entire generation of Syrians had no experience of Roman rule, and the Byzantine administration, trying to reassert itself, caused frictions. I'm not sure how enthusiastic the population was about Persian rule, either...

True; on the other hand, ITTL the historians will note that "the historically Roman province of Syria had been under Persian rule for less than two decades", so I suspect it's if anything a bit worse off; OTOOH, IOTL Persia was in utter chaos in the 630s, so my main argument - that marginally worse-off Romans and vastly better-off Persians are in a much better place to stand their ground - still seems valid.

The other thing, I guess, is that even if the Arabs do beat Persia the Romans still haven't (quite) shot their bolt in the Middle East; rather than having the expenditure of effort go Persia-Rome-Arabia it would go Persia-Arabia-Rome. Of course, to keep the 'Empire down in the period before 636 requires it to have really taken a beating in round one, but in the 7th C it still had resilience; it will come back sooner or later and would probably take a go at reclaiming the Levant at least.
 
I was actually hoping someone would suggest something like this. While I love the Byzantines as much as anyone (who doesn't?) I also have a soft spot for the Sassanians, and would like to do them better. The best way to go about this would be to avoid the Last War all together, perhaps by preventing Maurice from being overthrown, or at least restrict it to a much smaller conflict, leaving both powers still in their prime and able to deal with "those upstart Arabs". An alliance might even be in order.

However, this possibility also intrigues me, as it would leave Persia at it's most powerful since Xeres. However, there's always the fact that they may face the same problem that the Byzantines did: Imperial overstretch, trying to control too many territories at once. However, if properly managed, they might be able to at least keep the Arabs contained.
 
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