The year 1764 became a critical year in Europe, North America and even the Middle East as the various regional and global powers vied with one another despite enjoying 16 years of relative peace. The Peace of Munich and the Treaty of Calais had left many issues unresolved, many combatant nations greatly reduced in territory, wealth and prestige and left many others with unrealized dreams of glory. In the three major European hotzones of Gotland, Corsica and Central Europe, rivals were poised to make their second attempt to gain advantage and become regional hegemons.
As the year 1764 began, Central Europe was already a jumble of various alliances with often two or more nations members of multiple alliances. Rump Austria (Kingdom of Austria) had normalized relations with Bavaria-Bohemia (henceforth to be known either as Bovaria or Bahemia), but among the magnates there was still resentment over the losses of Upper Austria, Tyrol, Vorarlberg and Silesia. The diplomatic acquisition of Moravia did little to satiate their demands for revenge which the Queen, Maria Theresa tried to manage her kingdom. Fears of a Hungarian direct attack on Vienna led her to forge an alliance with the reigning king of Poland-Lithuania Michel Frydryk I for mutual assistance against the Hungarians. Though he initially accepted the terms of the treaty, he later pushed the Austrians to accept an addition which also guaranteed the Commonwealth's borders against Russian expansionism. Maria Theresa hated the idea of including Russia as the two absolutist states had a cordial diplomatic relationship, it was Poland's price for agreeing to defend the Hapsburg kingdom. Poland-Lithuania was also a member of the somewhat looser alliance with the Kingdoms of Prussia and Denmark-Norway known as the Baltic Alliance, which received a fourth adherent when Denmark and Prussia strong-armed the Duchy of Mecklenberg into the alliance which was directed against Sweden. Denmark and Poland-Lithuania's biggest fear was that the two Baltic rivals, Sweden and Russia, would put aside their differences to fight off any attempt to gain territory (this was especially worrisome for Denmark as their capital Copenhagen was perrilously close to the Swedish coast). Prussia's only other major power allies were the Electorate of Hannover-in personal union with its second ally the United Kingdom, and the Republic of the United Provinces (also known as the Dutch Republic or Holland), which offered a safeguard to Prussia's Rhineland Territories (Prussian Westphalia) in the event of a French invasion which looked more likely as Frederick II (the Great) had allowed the off-and-on alliance with France to finally lapse without renewal.
France strengthened its relations with Spain, providing both diplomatic and monetary support when Spain challenged the Ottoman Empire and its Barbary vassals for control of Algiers and Oran. France spent the three years leading to 1764 attempting with no success to woo the Grand Duchy of Flanders into an alliance, and gave support to Sardinia-Piedmont in their designs against the Republic of Genoa which ultimately failed despite the combined siege of the port-city during the First Corsican Uprising. It came as a surprise to the French ministers Francois-Joachim de Pierre de Bernis and Etienne Francois, duc de Choiseul* that both Sardinia-Piedmont and Genoa were willing participants in the Pan-Italian Defense League spearheaded by the Pope and the Republic of Venice, Genoa's former maritime and commercial rival. Nearly all the Italian republics and city-states except those vassalized to Spain were members, but even the Spanish vassal city-states were associate members of the League. Choiseul worked hard to persuade Charles Emmanuel III of Sardinia-Piedmont to leave the League as it was perceived as an obstacle to French ambitions in Corsica. Despite Papal mediation, the prospects of Corsica falling to France were very high. France and Spain also had ambitions in the Americas, where for Spain the reconquest of Maracaibo was their main goal, though the idea of retaking Jamaica and even conquering the Carolina Colony began to gain traction at the Spanish court. For France, New Hampshire and New York were promising areas of expansion which gave the added benefit of separating the Iroqouis from their British allies. What neither knew at the time was that there was already a brewing separatist movement both in Maracaibo among the Anglo-Spanish population (known also as Spanglish) and in the Thirteen Colonies (due to conflict with the Shawnee and Algonquin nations whom Britain protected).
For Great Britain, the losses of Nova Scotia, Hudson Bay and Savannah were a stinging reminder of the depletion of naval strength which had taken place as a result of the War of the Quadruple Alliance, when it seemed a Bourbon invasion in support of the Jacobite rising was so frightening that the Royal Navy pulled nearly every ship from the Caribbean to defend the Channel. Their one single major victory, the conquest of Maracaibo did offer them a place from which to launch offensives against the Spanish, but the fear that the local Spanish and Spanglish populations would agitate for greater control over the local militias, as well as the feuding between the Native Americans (Shawnee and Algonquin) and their colonists along the Atlantic Seaboard was a cause of concern. The purchase of Ceuta from Portugal, while allowing them to better assist their Portuguese ally against Spain, also left the Royal Navy at a disadvantage compared to the French and Spanish navies. Malta was already being considered as another staging area for the British Royal Mediterranean fleet, though the Order of St John still held the island on Papal grant following their expulsion from Rhodes by the Ottoman Turks. Britain also feared for its trading stations in India as France often switched alliances between the Moghuls and Marathas. Choiseul was even rumored to be working on a diplomatic solution to the Moghul-Maratha conflict in order to better resist British 'encroachments' on their territories**. The Dutch remained concerned about the French military supremacy in western Europe despite allowing the Barrier Fortresses to fall into disrepair due to lack of finances from their British and Austrian allies. The result was that the Dutch and Austrians ended their alliance while diplomatic ties were strengthened with Flanders. Their only true objective in South America was the conquest of the French Guiana colony and Luzon from the Spanish.
THE ULTIMATA START TO FLY (October - December 1764)
On 20 October 1764, Sweden-growing alarmed at the growth of the pro-Polish faction on the island of Gotland and believing that the Commonwealth was clearing the way for a conquest of the Baltic island, issued an ultimatum demanding that the Commonwealth cease providing aid to the insurgency and renounce its alliance with Prussia. Michel Fryderyk replied that as the Sejm would need to be called into session for such a discussion to take place, advocated for a two-month delay as the serfs would be harvesting and thus the nobility would be unable to meet. As a gesture of goodwill, it was agreed that no support would be continued for the insurgency. In actuality, the king had every intention to continue the financial support, but through Swiss bankers with ties to many of the Gotlander nobility. At the same time, the reorganization of the military was stepped up out of concern that Sweden would make common cause with Russia. Sweden sent 30,000 troops to Gotland to suppress the insurgency and fortify the island in preparation for the expected Polish invasion Stockholm knew was coming. Adolf Frederick, the Swedish king, began attempting to mend relations with Russia's Tsarina-Empress Catherine II who had recently deposed her husband Peter III and had him murdered***. The chief obstacle to normalization was Finland, which Adolf Frederick was not willing to cede to Catherine even if the price was to be the acquisition of Pomerania, Zealand and Trondelag from Prussia and Denmark-Norway respectively. At a stroke, the greatest fear of the Commonwealth, alliance between Sweden and Russia, was killed before even being born. This left Adolf Frederick isolated, however.
Michel Fryderyk Czartoryski, king-grand duke of Poland-Lithuania became the most courted royalty in Central Europe, with ambassadors from Prussia, Sweden, Austria, Bahemia and even France vying for diplomatic favors. Having seen off the Swedish ambassador with vague promises regarding Gotland, the king-grand duke reaffirmed his friendship with Frederick II of Prussia in a convention signed in Poznan on 28 October, and even offered to assist Prussia in gaining Swedish Pomerania, though he was unable to convince the Danish ambassador to sell Bornholm to Prussia. On 30 October in a meeting between the Bahemian, Prussian and Polish negotiators, the Prague Protocol was signed neutralizing Bohemia and guaranteeing the Neutrality of the Land. Austria would also sign this Protocol at the urging of the Polish ambassador to Vienna, four days later on 3 November. At a meeting in Krakow between the king-grand duke and the queen, it was agreed that Poland-Lithuania would supply a wing of hussar cavalry numbering 9,000 to the Austrian army being assembled in Styria for their offensive into Dalmatia. It was becoming clear that war was only several ultimata away from erupting, and Maria Theresa was determined to be prepared when it finally happened. Smaller Polish army forces were stationed at all the Carpathian mountain passes to block any Hungarian offensive which tried to strike Austria through Poland.
Russia under Catherine II (the Great) was in a unique position in Europe. With the largest territorial base, and the almost boundless resources which could feed and arm the military, Russia had the capability to target several enemy nations at once. Despite this, Catherine II was concerned about the continued Tartar presence in the Crimea, the reticence of Sweden in agreeing an alliance, and the ambitions of the Lithuanians within the Commonwealth. There was also the danger that the Chinese Empire under the new Manchu dynasty could advance their claims deep into the Russian Far East. Faced with these potential setbacks, Catherine II and her foreign minister Nikita Panin established a dialogue with the Manchu government which for the time being allowed Russia to focus on its two immediate neighbors, the Ottoman Empire with its Crimean vassal state, and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. To this end, she sent Panin to Budapest**** to lay out the planned partition of the Ottoman Empire and at the same time deal with the Commonwealth should they become involved. Their negotiations were interrupted when on 12 November an uprising of the Wallachian nobility against Ottoman taxation brought the Turkish army into contact with a Hungarian army that had taken advantage of the distraction to attempt a grab. Both sides studied each other warrily, but it was only on 24 November that the Ottoman government issued an ultimatum to Hungary demanding their withdrawal from the Danubian vassaldoms. Three days later a second ultimatum was issued to Hungary by Austria demanding the evacuation of Dalmatia and recognition of its sovereign status, as well as the cession of Burgenland. The ultimata went unanswered by Budapest as King Anton I was determined to assert Hungary's imperial ambitions against both of their former overlords the Hapsburgs and Ottomans. For the time being, Poland-Lithuania and Russia watched each other with growing suspicion.
On 30 November, after a period of uneasy coexistence, the island of Corsica erupted into rebellion again. Genoa, no longer able to count on Spanish help due to their French alliance, and with little recourse left, appealed to the Pan-Italian Defense League to resolve the situation through diplomacy and if necessary the loan of mercenaries to end the insurrection by force. Spanish gold and French diplomacy enabled the rebellion to continue as none of the League members, not even the Pope, proved willing to support Genoa. It would be two more months before the Republic finally withdrew from the League in disgust. Meanwhile Savoyard military planners were already at work strategizing how they could capitalize on the Genoese distraction with Corsica to finally conquer the city, but it was the French who seized the initiative by issuing an ultimatum to Genoa requesting a plebescite to allow the Corsicans to choose their destiny, failing which a state of war would be declared. At the same time, French troops numbering 28,000 were poised to cross into Sardinian territory, where it was expected to link with a Savoyard force of 17,000 before proceeding against the city.
In North America, fighting had already broken out between the British Thirteen Colonies, French Quebec and Spanish Florida as the Bourbon powers hoped to find weaknesses in British colonial defense before striking. Navy clashes in the Caribbean often did result in the loss of ships and their crews but no decisive strike on any sugar islands had yet been undertaken by the combatants. Growing popular outrage over the losses sustained in the last war forced the British Parliament to act and on 9 December, ultimata were issued both to France and Spain demanding the withdrawal from Georgia, Nova Scotia and the cession of Cuba. Spain responded three days later with an ultimatum of its own demanding the end of the Portuguese-British alliance and cession of the Carolina Colony. News of this particular demand reached the American colonists faster than it reached London primarily because the Spanish governor of Florida intended to drive a rift between the colonial assembly and the London parliament by demonstrating that London would be incapable of protecting the colonists.
The Christmas season was unusually quiet despite the ultimata that were flying across the Peninsula of Europe. It was as if the monarchs and generals were afraid to unleash the Wrath of God on their peoples by going to war, though the clamour for war rose higher among the populations. With the ultimata set to expire and war looking more certain, however, it would be in Central Europe and the Balkans where war would finally erupt.
* Choiseul served as Foreign Minister of France between 1758-1761 and again between 1766-1770. Framcois-Joachim de Pierre de Bernis had served as Foreign Minister preceding the first term of Choiseul. Here, both men would be invited to work together and combine their talents for the monarchy.
** It is uncertain whether France actually made any effort IOTL to forge a temporary Moghul-Maratha peace in order for both to resist continued British entrenchments in India. ITTL, France would be more successful though the outcome would remain uncertain.
*** It remains unclear how Peter III actually died, though rumor and evidence persist to indicate that Alexei Orlov, younger of the Orlov brothers assassinated him. However, official autopsy records indicate he suffered a form of colic and stroke.
**** Panin never traveled to Budapest. He was IOTL, however, a strong advocate of the Northern Alliance idea, which would've brought Russia, Sweden, Poland, Prussia and Britain together to oppose both the Bourbons and Hapsburgs. He would be dismissed after being forced to acquiesce in the Partition of Poland in May 1781
Source:
Wikipedia
Pursuit of Glory - Tim Blanning
Central Europe: Enemies, Neighbors, Friends - Lonnie Johnson
Europe of the Ancien Regime: 1715-1783 - David Ogg