A different war of austrian succession and it's consequances

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

No problem. However I myself am guilt of "what if France had won the 7 years war", I wrote a scenario in which they won big once.

Also I was thinking...in your seven years war scenario; let's assume that Prussia goes after Hannover in order to support France; Austria intervenes, triggering a French response in both Germany and Italy; Russia joins in alliance with the Austrians; now in the colonies everything goes as OTL; Prussia is terminally dismemberes, reverting, ad you said to a Brandeburg state. What about France on the continent? Are they going to pose something? And what about successive political development? I see Austria start to perceive Russia as a growing threat in the east, while France becoming less of a menace. Austro-French approachment now? That is very important. If Louis XVI does not marry Marie Antoniette there might also be butterlies taking off

 

[Autocrat]

Also I was thinking...in your seven years war scenario; let's assume that Prussia goes after Hannover in order to support France; Austria intervenes, triggering a French response in both Germany and Italy; Russia joins in alliance with the Austrians; now in the colonies everything goes as OTL; Prussia is terminally dismemberes, reverting, ad you said to a Brandeburg state. What about France on the continent? Are they going to pose something? And what about successive political development? I see Austria start to perceive Russia as a growing threat in the east, while France becoming less of a menace. Austro-French approachment now? That is very important. If Louis XVI does not marry Marie Antoniette there might also be butterlies taking off

Austria and Russia and company will be occupied with Prussia at first. And the war is likely to end before they invade France. However if Fernando Vi's Spain gets involved I could see France losing Lorraine (with the Lorrainers trading away Tuscany) and Corsica. But without someone with a direct border against France, France will be able to fight and lose the war away from home.

Austria will definitely begin to realize the threat of Russia, especially with Russia's political dominance of Poland-Lithuania. I'm not sure if Austria would turn to France (France is not the best ally against Russia), but I do see Austria strengthening ties with Sweden and the Ottoman Empire. And Austria will also start to contest Poland-Lithuania with Russia.

 

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

E

Austria and Russia and company will be occupied with Prussia at first. And the war is likely to end before they invade France. However if Fernando Vi's Spain gets involved I could see France losing Lorraine (with the Lorrainers trading away Tuscany) and Corsica. But without someone with a direct border against France, France will be able to fight and lose the war away from home.

Austria will definitely begin to realize the threat of Russia, especially with Russia's political dominance of Poland-Lithuania. I'm not sure if Austria would turn to France (France is not the best ally against Russia), but I do see Austria strengthening ties with Sweden and the Ottoman Empire. And Austria will also start to contest Poland-Lithuania with Russia.

I don't know...Sweden is a pretty useless country by that time; so are the ottomans. If I want to fight back the russians I'd go with the french anyway; they are also equally interested in limiting russian influence in Poland. By the way I think that more than in Poland itself, the Habsburgs were interested in Poland surviving as a buffer against Russia at this point. Maybe a settlement might be manager in wich in exchange for austrian allowance for russia to expand into eastern Poland (practicely all of historical Lithuania the russians guarantee the survival of a western polish state, within the borders of historical Poland. In that case there would be no partition of Poland (and it must be considered that it would ne Paramount interest of the Austrians not to allow the prussians -or brandeburgians, depending on the outcome of previous wars- to expand into Poland), bit just russians grabbing polish territory. Also the russians might guarantee austrian rights upon western balkans (Bosnia andò Serbia) in exchange for a free hand in the Danubian principalities.

 

[Autocrat]

E

I don't know...Sweden is a pretty useless country by that time; so are the ottomans. If I want to fight back the russians I'd go with the french anyway; they are also equally interested in limiting russian influence in Poland. By the way I think that more than in Poland itself, the Habsburgs were interested in Poland surviving as a buffer against Russia at this point. Maybe a settlement might be manager in wich in exchange for austrian allowance for russia to expand into eastern Poland (practicely all of historical Lithuania the russians guarantee the survival of a western polish state, within the borders of historical Poland. In that case there would be no partition of Poland (and it must be considered that it would ne Paramount interest of the Austrians not to allow the prussians -or brandeburgians, depending on the outcome of previous wars- to expand into Poland), bit just russians grabbing polish territory. Also the russians might guarantee austrian rights upon western balkans (Bosnia andò Serbia) in exchange for a free hand in the Danubian principalities.

The Russians were more than content to have Poland-Lithuania as a buffer, OTL it was Prussia that prompted the Polish Partitions. So there would be no Polish Partitions. but that does not make Russia any less dangerous. OTL Russia dominate politics within the Commonwealth and squashed Austrian attempts to due the same. Which means that though the Commonwealth can serve as buffer for Russia, the same is not exactly true for Austria. Also the Austrians were no eager to see the Russians gain the Danubian Prinicipalities. Especially in exchange for the Western Balkans, which Austria had once held but had lost to the Ottomans repeatedly.

 

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

Ye

The Russians were more than content to have Poland-Lithuania as a buffer, OTL it was Prussia that prompted the Polish Partitions. So there would be no Polish Partitions. but that does not make Russia any less dangerous. OTL Russia dominate politics within the Commonwealth and squashed Austrian attempts to due the same. Which means that though the Commonwealth can serve as buffer for Russia, the same is not exactly true for Austria. Also the Austrians were no eager to see the Russians gain the Danubian Prinicipalities. Especially in exchange for the Western Balkans, which Austria had once held but had lost to the Ottomans repeatedly.

Yes that is what I was talking about: no Prussia means probably no polish partition. That said, frankly I do noto understand this austrian fixation towards Poland. I mean, IF (and I underscore IF the austrians can negotiate a settlement in wich they keep western poland ad a puppet, things would be OK. What I al suggesting here is a sort of polish partition after alla, with russian gaining pretty much their OTL share of Poland (and I mean 1795 Poland, noto 1815 Poland) and that instead of annexing the rest, shape it into a puppett of their own. Concerning the balkans you might be right...would it change something if the austrians had won in 1739 and thus kept northern Serbia and even gained Bosnia already?

 

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

Ye

Yes that is what I was talking about: no Prussia means probably no polish partition. That said, frankly I do noto understand this austrian fixation towards Poland. I mean, IF (and I underscore IF the austrians can negotiate a settlement in wich they keep western poland ad a puppet, things would be OK. What I al suggesting here is a sort of polish partition after alla, with russian gaining pretty much their OTL share of Poland (and I mean 1795 Poland, noto 1815 Poland) and that instead of annexing the rest, shape it into a puppett of their own. Concerning the balkans you might be right...would it change something if the austrians had won in 1739 and thus kept northern Serbia and even gained Bosnia already?

PS sorry for poor spelling, I al editing from a mobile phone...blame it on the corrector :O