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As far back as the 60s the Soviets took an interest in Afghanistan. Building up to the invasion, the Soviets provided advisors, built infrastructure, arms, and aid.

It is also speculated that the Afghan communist party was only communist in name, partially because of the Soviet aid. And the Soviets were also heavy invested in their southern neighbor because Iran was an American ally, until 1978, and didn't want to lose another country to the west.

The Soviets were also very reluctant to invade. They knew that the government was very unpolular, after all they forced reforms on the population; they kidnapped and killed farmers, stole land, etc. Not to mention the army uprisings just before the Soviets got involved.

So let's say the Afghans side with the west, the communists uprising that replaced the initial Republic were put down and forced into being a guerilla force. This western supported Afghan Republic then does the same things the Communist side did OTL by forcing reforms onto the population. In short it's an Asian equivalent to a central American country.

After the Islamic revolution in Iran, the leash is loosened by the West to give aid to the Afghan government and a year or so later the Soviets invade under the pretenses that they are there to liberate Afghanistan and instal the Communist rebels in a form of government.

Is a scenario such as this even plausible? Especially with them bordering the USSR, and would it go any better or worse for the reds?
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