A different Russian Revolution

This is my very first post on AH so...

NEW YORK TIMES-March 13th
Tsar Nicholas the Second Abdicates Throne!


Faced with growing popular unrest, including riots over the past few months in Petrograd, as well as pressure from the Duma, the Russian monarch has stepped down from the throne. Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovich Romanov, Nicholas’ designated successor, has refused the throne thus ending 300 years of Romanov rule in Russia…

The Russian Revolution-Oxford University Press 1985
1917 was to be a tumultuous year for Russia. It saw the end of Russia's autocracy and the beginnings of its transition towards democracy. After the abdication of Nicholas II from the throne, the provisional government faced considerable opposition from the Petrograd Soviet as well as other fringe elements on the left and the right. Among these radical elements was Vladimir Ilych Lenin (Ulianov), who led the Bolshevik faction of the Russian Social Democratic Labour Party. Lenin opposed the Russia’s new government at every turn and many historians speculate as to what would have happened had he not been arrested by government troops in July. However, the mass arrest of Bolshevik leaders that would come during the summer of 1917 essentially decapitated the head of the movement...


This is a small taste of things to come. My idea is that butterflies from Nicholas abdicating two days earlier, cause a more pacifist government (not led by Kerensky) to come to power and end the war so that the provisional government would be able to restore order. Would this work? Is it ASB?
 
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Welcome aboard, out of lurkerdom! :)

...Hmmm... I think the big issue, and the reason things went downhill so fast for Kerensky IOTL, was that the Provisional Government didn't have the authority - or, more to the point, the military ability - to arrest Lenin or any of the other crazy groups running around at the time. I like the POD - kicking off an entirely different Russia by having just having the abdication happen two days earlier just somehow appeals to my sense of how butterflies work - but I'm not sure it's enough. The critical point here is that you need to get most of the people and an overwhelming majority of the army on the PG's side fast, and I suspect your POD just isn't late enough to manage this. Frankly, the PG was just in one hell of a spot, and it would take a bit of thinking to find a way for them through it.
 
Hmm...

Initially the provisional government is not led by Kerensky IOTL but by Georgy Lvov. If somehow someone not averse to negotiated peace, or if somehow Kerensky could be convinced to negotiate with the Germans then the provisional government would be in a better position. The problem is I bet it would be extremely hard to do, as they are simply unwilling to stop the fight and want to continue for Russia's honor.

The crux of the matter is to somehow end the war which would be difficult. The western allies would certainly not be happy for one (although I do not see what they could do). Once the war is over, however, and a negotiated peace is in place, the provisional government will get considerably more breathing space. As of right now I am not sure how to do this

Thanks for the input!
 
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