1759
The winter of 1758-1759 was a time of reflection and planning among all the major power involved in the Great War so far. It has been a costly affair in money and blood, and was likely to continue to be such unless decisive, devastating battles could knock their opponents out of the war. Though, when both sides hold this opinion, they just get bigger and more costly involvement in the war.
Prussia
The Prussian army began the war with nearly 150,000 soldiers. As of 1/1/1759, nearly 110,000 were dead wounded or captured. Sure some few thousands of those recovered enough to fight on, and there were several thousand still green conscripts functioning as replacements, but that brought total manpower up to only about 65,000 Prussian soldiers. There were the Saxon conscripts of course, 18,000 had been impressed at their surrender, but near 10,000 deserted en-mass, and others were dead. After the Southern Saxony revolt, Fredrick didn’t trust the 2,500 or so that remained, so he split them up into small groups far away from the Southern front and assigned them to rear echelon duties to free up more of his own forces for the front lines.
The war was costing him dearly, his own brother Prince Henry, frequent confidant to his troubles, and former General to the western front had fallen over a year before. His brother Augustus William had also died just last year, suddenly and inexplicably (as OTL from a brain tumor). His youngest brother, Augustus Ferdinand, also was suffering from ill health and had to leave the army (also as OTL).
Some of Fredrick’s advisers were hinting at pursuing peace with Sweden via his sister Luisa Ulrika the Queen of Sweden, but that would probably mean giving up parts of Pomerania. Likewise they considered peace with Russia, but while Empress Elizabeth was alive that was unlikely. Fredrick stated he would rather die in battle than admit defeat and threatened to sack anyone that furthered the ideas of admitting such. For now the critical subsidies assistance from Britain would continue, which just might let him hold on.
Fredrick considered the Prussian army to still be clearly superior to those of the enemy, better trained and better equipped, and better led. They would not have made it this far if not. While Fredrick gained more respect for the Russians after Koslin, he still considered the Swedes as barely functional, and easy to knock out if only he had the manpower to commit to it.
More allies though were in need, Denmark and Holstein had refused repeated requests by Britain and Prussia to enter on their side. The Duke of Wurttemburg had even been asked, but he instead succumbed to French and Austrian pressure last fall and agreed to join their spring campaigns this year.
Britain
When word came of the 3rd Treaty of Versailles and the continued commitment of France potentially obtaining the Austrian Netherlands, Pitt and at George II at least found something to agree on; that this could not stand. Thus, despite consideration in parliament on whether Prussia would end up losing and the subsidies should be pulled, it was agreed to maintain them for a while longer. This decision was made in conjunction, despite additional objection, of sending 5,000 British regulars into Germany when Fredrick announced his need to pull his own troops eastward to face the Austrian and Russian threats. The policies were clear, keep France mired down in the west to give Prussia a chance, and make sure Hanover did not get reoccupied.
At the start of the Great War, Britain had merely 18,000 in its land army, not counting Minorca, North America, Gibraltar or India. Now nearly a third of them were sent to Germany. 2,000 land soldiers were being recruited and trained in the Isles to make up some of the difference, and the Militia act was passed, just in case France did try to do an invasion. Likewise the channel fleet was reinforced, to prevent such a French attempt, even though this, along with the tight blockade on the French Atlantic coast was making the Mediterranean fleet strength suffer.
The lower strength was being felt in reduced trade to the Levant. The centuries old Levant Company, might not survive the war, though truthfully it had been in decline for a while. Trade with India and the America’s dwarfed the trade to the Levant. Even though Britain was the second most prolific trading nation to the Levant region, (France being the first), the British share in the trade prior to the war was only 20% of the total. Loss of Levant trade would hurt financially, but it was a sacrifice that could be lived with. However, to mitigate the effects, plans were drawn up to expand trade and influence into the lands around the Persian Gulf. If they could not reach there via the front door, they could reach it via the back.
The campaigns in North America, although delayed, were still going as desired. When the area became sufficiently free of ice and winters grip, Amherst was to secure the Maritimes to end the incessant French raiding, and move on to conquer Quebec and the rest of New France. If France did not come to the peace table by then after draining their money in the German provinces, then the Royal navy would continue to take French Caribbean and French India.
Yet for all this, the costs of the war were mounting. Subsidies to Fredrick would only be able to last for so long as would the increasing costs of maintaining the army and navy at these war levels. There were already some minor reports of discontented grumbling in the colonies, though while they fought the French their voices were muted.
The Dutch Republic
The leaders of the Dutch keep a keen eye on every single report that came out about the current Great War. On multiple occasions, they rebuffed British and Prussian diplomatic requests to join on their side. The French seemed to inquire, but stopped short of actually asking, at least they understood that the answer would have been no, just as it was for all the others. Trade was suffering however, and would continue to suffer while the war raged. Though honestly the Dutch very much desired Prussia to win, as that would mean they kept Silesia, which would mean Austria would not give up the Netherlands to France, even if it was to be a client state. The Dutch could not enter the war. The new French King, Louis XVI, so far had respected their neutrality, and seemed to desire to renew trade. If they did, France would invade. Nor could they make any direct, obvious assistance, but they could not sit and do nothing either.
So it was decided. In 1753 the County of Bentheim (Grafschaft-Bentheim) was seized by the Electorate of Hanover, because of debts and internal problems. The French had occupied it briefly, before getting kicked back across the Rhine. So at present, it might be available.
After a bit of correspondence between King George II, the Duke of Brunswick, and other officials, the Dutch Republic offered a convenient ‘loan’. It was worth more than the backward moorland next to their borders that the County sat on, that was to be offered as collateral for sure (assuming Hanover still held on to it at wars end). After all, they ought to gain something out of it, and making direct subsidies would be too obvious. If Britain or Hanover used the funds in the war or forwarded it to Prussia, that was their decision. The Dutch officials did thus tell them such, as well as impart on how much they did not wish to have France as a neighbor.
Austria
In 1756, Austria began the war with approximately 170,000 soldiers. Now at the start of 1759, they had amassed nearly 80,000 dead and wounded. They were under a financial strain, and just like all participants, only just getting by with French subsidies, though some smaller portion of that now had to be spent on the navy; the rest on yet more recruitment and keeping the army paid. The payments from Spain in exchange for abandoning their claims on the Italian duchies would help, but would only go so far.
When Austrian ships, even if it was only six of them, sailed with French ships and attacked British ships in the Mediterranean, as their alliance now bound them to do, a declaration of war with Britain would be inevitable. Not that they were not effectively at war already, but the formalities can make a difference. That difference typically being how easily they could exit from the hostilities once their objectives are met.
Would they meet their objectives? Take Silesia, it had seemed simple, and they were so close to achieving it. Would some 90,000 troops, plus a few thousand Saxons be enough to finally remove the Prussian armies from the board? It should be, combined with French and Russia, (even the Austrians were discounting any further Swedish effectiveness.) Fredrick however kept a strong presence from Posen to Breslau to Gorlitz to the Elbe and up to Magdeburg. Fredrick had stopped Austrian armies from joining up with the Russians and from joining up with the French. Their citizen and armies were war-weary, and the worst was yet to come.
Russia
Like vultures, so many waited to see when Empress Elizabeth would die. She knew well enough of Peter’s pro-Prussian views, and thus aimed to be live long enough to see Prussia defeated before she shuffled off her mortal coil. Only time would tell if she would succeed.
Like the other in the Great War, which should really be called the horrible war, Russia had sent over 94,000 troops against Prussia at the war’s start. Nearly a quarter died to disease before even reaching East Prussia and now by 1759 less than 50,000 remained in East Prussia. They could probably make peace now for East Prussia, but the Empress knew that unless Fredrick was dead and Prussia dismantled they would just come back again; so it had to be seen to the end.
Last year’s request for reinforcements had been heeded, and two more infantry regiments, plus some replacements for lost cavalry and artillery, would be sent west early in the spring. When they arrived, Vasily Lopukhin and Pyotr Rumyantsev would go forth once again to take Kolberg and join with the Austrians on a drive to Berlin. William Fermor would remain in charge of the garrisons in East Prussia.
Russia too however was keeping a careful eye on the Ottomans. One assurance though was that in addition to the reconfirmation of the treaties against Prussia, Austria, Russia and France agree to defensive treaties against the Ottoman’s if they initiated and hostile actions against any of the three powers, for the duration of the war. So far this has kept them cowed. A concern however, was the rumor that Osman III was said to be slipping into fits of madness, creating potential instability in the Ottoman Empire. (TTL Osman III did not die in 1757, and yes as in OTL he is still a nutter)
Sweden
Despite their success in retaking their former Pomeranian holdings, the Hats party was still unpopular as the war dragged on and bled Swedish blood. The Swedish army numbers some 48,000 at the start of the war, but that was in both Pomerania and in Sweden itself. Now, close to 11,000 were dead or wounded. After General Gustaf David Hamilton failed to take Prenzlau, Sweden was in a bind. Even though Hamilton was perhaps now realized to be the best leader for the Swedish forces, his complaints on the state of their army could no longer be ignored, however reforming it would take money Sweden simply did not have much of. For the moment, they could do nothing but sit on what they had gained, and hope Fredrick would be finished off by their allies. Sweden had but one hand left to play, they had to secure more allies themselves and commit more forces into Pomerania.
Sweden turned once again to the Duke of Mecklenburg-Schwerin, who had previously hired off some of his forces for Swedish assistance. The price for full commitment into the war against Prussia, in direct support of Sweden, was high but unavoidable. At the conclusion of the war, win or lose, after a period of five years of co-occupation, Sweden would turn over Wismar and the other Swedish exclaves within Mecklenburg to Fredrick II the Duke of Mecklenburg-Schwerin. (Not to be confused with the other Fredrick II of Prussia)
Denmark and Holstein
Despite great pressure from Britain and Prussia to join against Sweden (and consequently Austria, France and Russia) King Fredrick V of Denmark and foreign minister Bernstorf could see no way of entering the war without great risk. Neutral shipping was also far more profitable, and an entry into the war would mean no real chance at the resolution of the Schleswig-Holstein Question. So far, King Adolph Frederick of Sweden had made promises to renounce his claim to Gottorp Sleswig in case Peter III (heir presumptive of Russia) died childless (or now since the birth of Paul I and Anna, if they died childless). Peter III, of course wasn’t going to give up his claims, despite Empress Elizabeth’s indications of agreement to the idea. Given her age, a war with Russia would be likely soon, and there was no need to hasten that along. Furthermore France was paying some subsidies to Denmark to remain neutral, while Britain paid them a tax to traverse through the County of Oldenburg between East Frisia and Hanover or via ships along the coast.
Fredrick II the Duke of Mecklenburg-Schwerin, with its planned daring entry into the war, wanted assurances from Denmark before they did so. This gave a chance to gain something out of the events. Fredrick agreed to assist Denmark in case a war broke out between Denmark and Russia over Holstein, as well as to look the other way should Denmark pursue ‘other interests’.
What were those other interests? With much of the Germanies and other powers likely suffering in manpower and finances by the war’s end they would be unlikely to immediately pursue any renewed wars elsewhere, which at least left options available to Fredrick V and Bernstorf, such as designs on the Principality of Lubeck and the free Imperial Cities of Lubeck and Hamburg.
Mecklenburg
Fredrick II, Duke of Mecklenburg was taking on a risk for sure by jumping into the war, but there was much to gain in the probably downfall of Prussia. Just getting Wismar from Sweden was enough, but knowing that France and Austria would continue the fight until Hanover was also taken down meant he had a chance to make gains there as well, such as the Duchy of Lauenburg.
Of 6,000 initial troops lent to Sweden, around 1,750 were dead or wounded in the campaigns thus far. However an additional 15,000 would become available or raised in the near term for assistance and offensives against Prussia.
France
The prior tax against the Nobility was helping with the enormous expenses of the war, as were the Swiss loans and the beginnings of the change in trade balance in the Levant. Curbing down on the court and palace expenses had helped too but it was small in comparison. Louis’s advisers continued to press for expanding the tax onto the clergy, but he could not bear the thought of such a burden upon the men of God’s good works. Many nobles by now were getting bolder in voicing their discontent upon the taxes, but it couldn’t be helped. For all the additional revenue was helping it was only going to go so far. There was no financial crisis as of yet though, but it could well become such, especially given the severe impact of trade to the America that the British blockade was having.
France needed Spain to enter the war as an ally, Choiseul campaign for an invasion of Britain before then but Louis wanted to wait in order to coordinate it with Spain. For Spain to enter the war he wanted to see success in the Germanies, so he would know France’s armies would be freed up from that theater for offensives against Portugal if they refused his demands, or against Gibraltar and the British Isles.
Choiseul and Louis were also working on a fallback plan in case things went bad for France in the new world. That would probably be the case, but Louis hoped that trading Hanover back to Britain would regain them any lost colonies in the Americas and the Caribbean. With alliance between Spain, Austria and even Russia, so long as the British were removed from the Mediterranean, moves could be made against the Ottoman Empire or at least for France their far flung vassals along North Africa. Already Louis was incensed at the notion of ‘bribing’ them for peace to prevent corsair attacks on their shipping. This was an expense the French could do without, though in the meantime, it might become necessary to bribe them into denying the British access to portage in North Africa.
The Spring Campaign of 1759 would be the first fielding of new regiments since reforms were implemented not long after Choiseul had taken office in summer 1757. One aspect of this, despite the loss of funds it created, was the abandonment of paid commissions by the nobility, unless of course that payment went toward tuition to the new Military School of Paris (one of Madame de Pompadour’s contributions that was kept), and the applicants proved themselves. Otherwise much had been learned from fighting with Prussia and the tactics and organization were being emulated in the new French regiments. There still remained a bloat of officers in the old army, often from those nobles buying commissions for prestige. Furthermore their salaries would drain military coffers, which was yet another drain on French finances.
One other trend King Louis XVI sought to bring about was improvement of the health of the people. In reality, this started as a want to end epidemics that had adversely affected the French Fleet in Louisbourg in 1757 and elsewhere. Likewise Russia losing a quarter of their forces to disease had been well known. Disease could break an army before it even fought. Somehow, this led to led to the King, reading Voltaires, Lettres philosophiques, despite the fact that it was banned in France. (The King has his privileges after all) The King was appalled at most of Voltaire’s opinions, especially regarding the church, and his view on English governance. Though he took heed of what was in the book that had caused him to seek it out to begin with, the section which described the practice of inoculation. In a surviving letter regarding the start of the practice Louis wrote, ‘It is mostly worthless chaff, yet a germ might be separated out from it. Copy the relevant sections so marked and verify its conclusions. Burn the rest.
Finally as the winter of would come to a close, King Louis XVI, Queen Maria Josepha, and their children Louis-Auguste, dauphin of France and Louis Stanislas Xavier, welcomed a new addition to their family. On February 5th, 1759, Catherine Sophia, Princess of France was born.
(Charles X and subsequent children have been butterflied away)
Planned Naval Expansions in 1759
British:
7 Ships of the Line: (as OTL)
Sandwich (90), Mars (74), Fame (74), Hero (74), Heracles (74), Valient (74), Firme (60)
5 Frigates: (as OTL)
Phoenix (44), Niger (32), Minerva (32), Tweed (32), Milford (28)
French:
8 Ships of the Line (+2 from OTL)
Royal Louis (116), Orient (80), Thesee (74), Saint Anne (64), Modeste (64), Comte de Saint Florentine (60), Saint-Espirit* (74), Caribou* (50)
*TTL rebuilds of hulked ships
Frigates: 0 (as OTL)
Note: during research I discovered 3 French frigates that I had left out in my original list. These were captured by the British (pretty much as OTL) during the year 1758 and incorporated into the British fleet. These ships were the Rostan (32), Vengeance (28), and Galatee (24). (In OTL the Rostan was renamed the Crescent, but I am keeping the same name for TTL, as it makes keeping track easier.)
I have edited these events into the 1758 end of year summary and naval update. For TTL these captures are considered to be standard small action events against French Atlantic trade. (which is basically what they were OTL too)
