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On December 7th, the U.S.'s Pacific carriers (I believe Enterprise and Lexington at that time) are at Pearl Harbor and are sunk there.

Simultaneously, the Japanese are able to seriously damage the Panama Canal (they designed the B1 submarine to do it, but I think that was exceptionally unlikely to succeed, so here's my idea). They do this by taking two merchant ships and scuttling one in the Gaillard Cut while another explodes in a Texas City size blast, taking with it the Gatun Locks. The crews of both ships, IJN personnel in disguise, are either killed or commit suicide.

How long is the Panama Canal out and what is affected?

My take on things: the Battle of the Coral Sea is butterflied away because no Lexington and Yorktown, which probably in turn means Japan takes all of New Guinea and the Solomons, is able to finish the airfield on and otherwise reinforce Guadalcanal, and the fact the Shokaku and Zuikaku are able to participate in the Battle of Midway, coupled with the now-depeleted U.S. forces available for that battle, means (at least to me) that the Japanese likely occupy Midway, although this will of course be unsuccessful in allowing Japan to take or bomb heavily the rest of Hawaii or in forcing the U.S. to sue for peace. With Midway won, the Japanese defensive picket is complete and they likely occupy New Caledonia, Fiji, and Samoa, along with other areas.

Any other ideas? Am I full of crap? Would that be enough to cause the Japanese to give into their egos and launch some sort of ground campaign in Australia?

Thanks.
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