Eurofed
Banned
The scenario I propose is a variant of BlairWitch 749's masterful "Manstein in Africa" TL (here, here, and here). The PoD (Manstein being sent to Africa to head the Africa Corps instead of Rommel) is the same, as well as the broad strategic consequences: gradual Axis military and economic total integration waging an effective coalition war, the military of Italy and later the other European Axis members raised to German efficiency levels, Hitler delaying Barbarossa to 1942 in order to focus Axis strength to crush Britain in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, the Axis conquering North Africa, the Middle East, and East Africa, Spain, Turkey, and Vichy France joining the Axis which stages a collective naval and land massive build-up for uber-Barbarossa and naval supremacy in the Atlantic, British war coalition clinging to power with wild promises of American help, Stalin attacking first by a few weeks in late Spring or early Summer 1942, even if the Axis is fairly prepared for a defensive battle.
The main variant I wish to introduce is Japan: once the Axis conquers the Middle East, it bargains a Japanese cobelligerance against Soviet Russia in exchange for getting Middle Eastern oil, which defies the Allied embargo. The Japanese government accepts the deal, assumes a defensive stance in China and throws the bulk of its army against the Russian Far East once Stalin attacks. Thanks to Axis military integration, Japan receives a few hundred German tanks & planes and licences to build more (although of course logistical issues make Axis integration nowhere as efficient as it is for the European partners). Japan assumes a defensive stance in the Pacific and South East Asia, since it has little reason to attack South in this scenario.
In the Atlantic, the Axis sticks to a defensive stance against America and keeps trying to avoid Roosevelt's provocations. FDR keeps waging an undeclared naval war with the Axis in the Atlantic and sending as much Land-Lease to Britain as he can to the best of his constitutional peacetime powers, but an Axis declaration of war or armed attack against America is never coming. Since Stalin attacks first, the Congress bans L-L to the USSR at least until America and the Axis are at war, and may or may not keep it lower than OTL afterwards. It would have very serious problems reaching Russia in substantial amounts anyway.
Although it is wholly feasible and indeed quite likely that Axis-American naval build-up and undeclared war in the Atlantic may eventually give FDR a Lusitania-style casus belli at some point, it cannot be expected to be a sure or quick thing. Pro-British lobbies already pulled the trick in 1917 and the American public was quite wary of falling in the same trap during the 1930s, British weakness, Axis defensive attitude vs. the USA, and Soviet aggressiveness would strengthen the US isolationist public opinion, a casus belli arising from FDR's deliberate naval provocations would be much more controversial with the American public and Congress than OTL belligerance, and the Republican Party with its large isolationist wing was gradually recovering its strength during the 1940s.
An alternative possibility is Britain enlarging the war by seizing Japanese oil shipments of ME oil as contraband. This would easily and quickly escalate to war between Britain and Japan, but again assuming that Japan doesn't attack the Hawaii or the Philippines on its own initiative, an American intervention in a war against Japan that the UK started would be rather more controversial than OTL with the American public (although not so much as a deliberate intervention in the European war), and FDR cannot be assumed to get a declaration of war from Congress at once. It is of course all but sure that he would try and quite likely eventually succeed to get the USN into a provocative stance and some naval "incident" with the Japanese, and escalate it into war. But again these things take time, and American belligerance would be substantially delayed. Of course, if Japan enlarges its counterattack to the Philippines, this would bring an enraged America in the war at once.
For these reasons, it is wholly sensible to assume that American belligerance, if it ever happens, would be largely delayed, at the very least by 6-8 months if not quite possibly 12-16 months, even if America during 1942 would keep waging its huge military build-up (quite possibly enlarging it even further) and doing everything it could as a sympathetic neutral and already did in 1941 to assist Britain. Differently from BW's TL, however, America does not lose the vast majority of its warships to a double Pearl Harbor and would join the war with an intact Navy (but a rather less determined will to fight). It may also enjoy an extra year or so of military build-up, but so would the Axis and the Soviets.
The main variant I wish to introduce is Japan: once the Axis conquers the Middle East, it bargains a Japanese cobelligerance against Soviet Russia in exchange for getting Middle Eastern oil, which defies the Allied embargo. The Japanese government accepts the deal, assumes a defensive stance in China and throws the bulk of its army against the Russian Far East once Stalin attacks. Thanks to Axis military integration, Japan receives a few hundred German tanks & planes and licences to build more (although of course logistical issues make Axis integration nowhere as efficient as it is for the European partners). Japan assumes a defensive stance in the Pacific and South East Asia, since it has little reason to attack South in this scenario.
In the Atlantic, the Axis sticks to a defensive stance against America and keeps trying to avoid Roosevelt's provocations. FDR keeps waging an undeclared naval war with the Axis in the Atlantic and sending as much Land-Lease to Britain as he can to the best of his constitutional peacetime powers, but an Axis declaration of war or armed attack against America is never coming. Since Stalin attacks first, the Congress bans L-L to the USSR at least until America and the Axis are at war, and may or may not keep it lower than OTL afterwards. It would have very serious problems reaching Russia in substantial amounts anyway.
Although it is wholly feasible and indeed quite likely that Axis-American naval build-up and undeclared war in the Atlantic may eventually give FDR a Lusitania-style casus belli at some point, it cannot be expected to be a sure or quick thing. Pro-British lobbies already pulled the trick in 1917 and the American public was quite wary of falling in the same trap during the 1930s, British weakness, Axis defensive attitude vs. the USA, and Soviet aggressiveness would strengthen the US isolationist public opinion, a casus belli arising from FDR's deliberate naval provocations would be much more controversial with the American public and Congress than OTL belligerance, and the Republican Party with its large isolationist wing was gradually recovering its strength during the 1940s.
An alternative possibility is Britain enlarging the war by seizing Japanese oil shipments of ME oil as contraband. This would easily and quickly escalate to war between Britain and Japan, but again assuming that Japan doesn't attack the Hawaii or the Philippines on its own initiative, an American intervention in a war against Japan that the UK started would be rather more controversial than OTL with the American public (although not so much as a deliberate intervention in the European war), and FDR cannot be assumed to get a declaration of war from Congress at once. It is of course all but sure that he would try and quite likely eventually succeed to get the USN into a provocative stance and some naval "incident" with the Japanese, and escalate it into war. But again these things take time, and American belligerance would be substantially delayed. Of course, if Japan enlarges its counterattack to the Philippines, this would bring an enraged America in the war at once.
For these reasons, it is wholly sensible to assume that American belligerance, if it ever happens, would be largely delayed, at the very least by 6-8 months if not quite possibly 12-16 months, even if America during 1942 would keep waging its huge military build-up (quite possibly enlarging it even further) and doing everything it could as a sympathetic neutral and already did in 1941 to assist Britain. Differently from BW's TL, however, America does not lose the vast majority of its warships to a double Pearl Harbor and would join the war with an intact Navy (but a rather less determined will to fight). It may also enjoy an extra year or so of military build-up, but so would the Axis and the Soviets.
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