Here's a map of the levant in a hypothetical Peel Israel (1937) scenario.
Israel is
The Arab portion of Palestine in 1937 is given to the Kingdom of Jordan. The King of Jordan is proclaimed Protector of Muslim and Christian sites in Jerusalem and Nazareth.
Without an Arab-Israeli War of 1947-1948, Jewish-Arab tensions are much less TTL. Jordan meanwhile is very interested in maintaining good relations with Israel, and the Israelis pledge to assist in the protection of the Hashemite State. Meanwhile no 1947-1948 War means no Arab Exodus from Israel, although many Arabs opt to relocate to Jordan anyway on principal.
TTL, Jordan and Egypt go to war at some point. Given Nasser's anti-monarchism and desire for pan-arabism, I think it is a likely thing to happen. The result is Jordan's acquisition of the Sinai Peninsula.
Prior to WW2 TTL Israel takes in all of the Jews of Germany, Slovakia, Austria, Czechia, Romania, and Poland. Poland wanted to get rid of its Jewish population OTL, Germany clearly did, and Romania was a very antisemitic regime as well. Altogether this amounts to some 5 million Jews who end up relocating to Israel prior to WW2. It's a lot, but TTL's Evian Conference amounts to an international agreement to support Jewish relocation (including helping to provide food and housing to transplants and assisting in providing travel options). Jewish organizations like Rothschild family, the American Jewish Congress, etc also contribute quite a bit.
As a member of the allies TTL (joining the war in 1941 for the Syria-Lebanon and North African Campaigns), Israel post-war gets Marshall Plan aid.
5 million additional Jews in Israel early on, 50-70% Orthodox if I had to guess, probably ends up resulting in ~15 million more Jews TTL (probably meaning there'd be a good amount of emigration to places like the US). 700,000 more Arabs in Israel probably means another 2.2 million Palestinian Arabs. Bethlehem and Ramallah are another 400,000. Southern Lebanon is another couple of million.
Israel in 2019 TTL probably has a population of 25-30 million and is like 70-80% Jewish.
Lebanon is likely more populous without the civil war and associated emigration.
With Nasser to the West and Assad and Saddam to the east, I can see the three countries being quite tight with one another in the mid-20th Century.
Thoughts?
Israel is
- The 1937 Peel Boundaries
- The Jerusalem Mandate (including Bethlehem and Ramallah)
- The Golan Heights
- Southern Lebanon, including Tyre and Sidon. Basically, Lebanon south of the Mutasarrifate and west of the Lebanon Mountains ends up Israeli. Lebanon's borders are basically those proposed by Émile Eddé before WW2 OTL.
The Arab portion of Palestine in 1937 is given to the Kingdom of Jordan. The King of Jordan is proclaimed Protector of Muslim and Christian sites in Jerusalem and Nazareth.
Without an Arab-Israeli War of 1947-1948, Jewish-Arab tensions are much less TTL. Jordan meanwhile is very interested in maintaining good relations with Israel, and the Israelis pledge to assist in the protection of the Hashemite State. Meanwhile no 1947-1948 War means no Arab Exodus from Israel, although many Arabs opt to relocate to Jordan anyway on principal.
TTL, Jordan and Egypt go to war at some point. Given Nasser's anti-monarchism and desire for pan-arabism, I think it is a likely thing to happen. The result is Jordan's acquisition of the Sinai Peninsula.
Prior to WW2 TTL Israel takes in all of the Jews of Germany, Slovakia, Austria, Czechia, Romania, and Poland. Poland wanted to get rid of its Jewish population OTL, Germany clearly did, and Romania was a very antisemitic regime as well. Altogether this amounts to some 5 million Jews who end up relocating to Israel prior to WW2. It's a lot, but TTL's Evian Conference amounts to an international agreement to support Jewish relocation (including helping to provide food and housing to transplants and assisting in providing travel options). Jewish organizations like Rothschild family, the American Jewish Congress, etc also contribute quite a bit.
As a member of the allies TTL (joining the war in 1941 for the Syria-Lebanon and North African Campaigns), Israel post-war gets Marshall Plan aid.
5 million additional Jews in Israel early on, 50-70% Orthodox if I had to guess, probably ends up resulting in ~15 million more Jews TTL (probably meaning there'd be a good amount of emigration to places like the US). 700,000 more Arabs in Israel probably means another 2.2 million Palestinian Arabs. Bethlehem and Ramallah are another 400,000. Southern Lebanon is another couple of million.
Israel in 2019 TTL probably has a population of 25-30 million and is like 70-80% Jewish.
Lebanon is likely more populous without the civil war and associated emigration.
With Nasser to the West and Assad and Saddam to the east, I can see the three countries being quite tight with one another in the mid-20th Century.
Thoughts?