A different Eastern Front (WWI)

This is an attempt at a different Eastern Front during WWI. It’s really only a rough idea so comments and criticism are not only welcome but expected.

When Hermann von François' first corps won the Battle of Stallupönen, he was able to convince General Maximilian von Prittwitz to launch an offensive at the Russians against the orders of Moltke. Unfortunately François attacked early because the Russians were out of ammunition, and while the attack started well, the artillery of the Russians led to its halt. The Russians had prior warning of the attacks by August von Mackensen's XVII Corps and Otto von Below's first reserve corps. They were forced to attack early and unprepared and the Russians had already moved their heavy artillery up, in other words a disaster. Prittwitz lost his nerve, ordered a retreat and Moltke fired him. Moltke hired Hindenburg and Ludendroff and sent troops from the Western Front to the Eastern Front. The rest as they say is history.

That was all OTL. In TTL, Prittwitz impresses on François the reasons for waiting and François doesn't ruin it. However, Colonel Max Hoffman, Prittwitz's deputy chief of operations who new of bad blood between the two Russian Gernerals (General Pavel von Rennenkampf and General Alexander Samsonov), came up with a rather brilliant plan which caught Prittwitz's eye. Using a faint retreat and a fully prepared German army, what basically amounts to a Tannenberg captures most of Samsonov's army. All a sudden the Russians look like a very easy target. In this Tannenberg, François, Prittwitz AND Hoffman take credit for the attack by the press, and the Western front isn't weakened. The Eighth German Army single-handedly destroyed the 2nd Russian Army and then ejected what was left of the first Army back across the border, where they went into defensive forts, waiting for the Russian tenth Army to form.

There were some who wanted to continue the fight into
Russia but after the Western Front, Prittwitz thought better of it. Moltke agreed with Prittwitz stating that the Western Front needs to be allowed to continue and the Schieffen plan continue. When the Western Front turns into a bloody stalemate, the German position is stronger. Moltke decides that the Eastern Front looks more promising, a strong defence is called for, which is used to great effect by the Germans on the Entendre that throws away millions of lives on the same offences again and again. The more independent Germans soon learn important lessons in defence. Meanwhile new troops are sent east. The newly formed ninth army is erected just as the Russians pluck up the courage to launch a new offensive against the Germans. The Tzar is desperate for "just one victory". The 10th Army make very little progress and the numbers are not so heavily in Russia's favour. Now the superiority of the German Army comes into play. The Germans force the 10th back capturing more prisoners of war. Prittwitz and his staff then launch a counter attack on the weakened Russians to the North.

The reason for the move is simple but affective. Due to the early Tannenberg analogue, the Germans were in a very strong position at the very end of August/early September. The German High Command then realised
Austria would be the weak link in the chain. Despite some useful victories, the Russians appeared to be about to overwhelm the Austrians. A diversion was needed, and the Eighth Army appeared to be in a position to deliver one. The Eighth Army became an irrational fear for the Russians and they began to overrate their power, this was not lost on the Germans. So the Eighth Army launched an offensive north which was hoped would spook the Russians into moving men away from Austria. What was happening in Austria that called for an offensive by the Eighth Army?

The Third and Eighth Russian Armies had routed the Austrians near Lemberg and the City was under threat. The first and fourth Austrian Armies had bee successful to the North, but those Russians were still a threat. Meanwhile the second and more urgently the third Austrian armies were facing dire problems from the aforementioned Russian armies. The solution was to move the forth Army to aid the third which created a gap which was utilised by the third Russian Army. The loss for the Austrians represented the first victory of the Russian campaign, but worse was to come. The Forth Army's movements south lead the fifth Russian army (stopped previously by the forth) to make use of the gap and the Russians drove the Austrians back. Disaster as the Russians took Lemberg and the Austrian Armies were about to collapse. [I hope that makes sense, basically it’s OTL]

If
Austria lost Germany could have all the victories in the world and it wouldn't make a fat load of difference. The Eighth moved North as the Ninth stayed in defence. The progress was slow but the Russians were routed. The Germans got the panic they needed in the Russian High Command, as troops from the Austrian theatres moved North. The Offensive went better than planned and resulted in more troops been sent East. The decision to go North has surprised many Historians who believe an assault into Poland was more likely. However other historians like the American Robert Moore, have pointed out North led to St Petersburg, which Prittwitz confessed in his Published Dairies, was a key goal in his battle plan. Also moving Russian troops as far away from Austria as possible and the city of Riga were other factors that led to the decision. One drawback was the Russians could move troops other than the Austrian front troops, but that led to a greater weakening of the Russian position. Overall the offensive is viewed as a tactical victory for the Germans.

The Austrians meanwhile try to regroup and defend along the
Carpathian Mountains with large areas of Austria under Russian control. Only Przemyśl remained in Austrian hands and it was under siege. Clearly the first goal of the Austrians was to lift the siege but that was easier said than done. The German offensive did move troops but not enough to give the Austrians an advantage. The arrival of the Second Army from Serbia was the only real bonus going into the Autumn period in 1914 along the Eastern front. A relief force was sent to relieve the siege during the German Eighth Armies' attack north under the command of General Svetozar Boroevic von Bojna. Conrad believed Boroevic's army and the Przemyśl garrison could give the Russians "A bloody Nose" and on the 10th of October, the offence went underway, what happened shocked everyone. The Austrians held their own and Conrad ordered more troops to take positions to support them. The Russians were suffering from supply problems and many troops had been sent north after the Tannenberg analogue. The Russians were numerically superior but the Austrians were technically superior. It was a small victory militarily speaking. But it is believed to be a very important part of the war. The Austro-Hungarians had some hope left, moral wasn't as low as it would have been. Przemyśl was safe and Lemberg was considered next.

But the Victory at Przemyśl left a large bulge in the front and the Russians began crushing attacks against the Austrian positions. At this point the first Germans sent by Molkte arrive in
Austria and begin moving to the front. The Russians are perplexed that Germany had not launched an offensive on Poland. When a dead German man is found on the Baltic front carrying information about an assault on Walsaw mid October, the Russians are not surprised and covertly move troops to Poland. However this was a plant. The German's had the fake letter on many officers’ persons in oder to fool the enemy. It is Hoffman who is credited with this idea though we will never know for sure. While the Russians are defending Walsaw, the Germans launch an attack on Riga and the Austrians are back with Lemberg in their sights (this time with German troops to back them up). These two fights are drawn to a close due to bad winter weather while the Russians try a counter attack from Poland which is rebuffed. Neither city will be taken in 1914 but the Central Powers are in good positions for spring. One final point, winter clothes were provided to all troops, an initiative from someone... we don't know who, and many German soldiers would survive that awful winter.
 
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Gumbinnen

Gumbinnen is a funny battle. In total it is close to being a tactical draw but it was a big strategic victory for the Russians.

The problem with your earlier Tannenberg is Gumbinnen greatly slowed the advance of Russian First Army and this allowed the Germans to pounce on Second Army at Tannenberg.

I would suggest an alteration. Instead of Gumbinnen Prittwitz makes his stand in front of Insterburg and has all of his corps fully prepared. He lets the Russians bleed on his defenses and once their ammunition is expended counterattacks. Rennenkampf is soundly spanked and scurries back east.

The result of this is Moltke is convinced that Prittwitz has the Eastern Front under control. So Guard Reserve Corps and XI Army Corps are not moved east. With Russian First Army licking its wounds then you get not an earlier Tannenberg but something similar (probably a little deeper into East Prussia) 2-3 days later.

OK now you need to flesh out what happens in the West. Apparently you don't accept the common misconception that those 2 corps were all that was needed to make the Schlieffen Plan work BUT they should make some difference at the Marne. Even though you are more interested in the East you need to flesh out the West.

Getting back to the East I do know that just before he was sacked Moltke wanted to form a small German army in Silesia to fill what he thought was a dangerous gap between Eighth Army and the Austrians.
 
Gumbinnen is a funny battle. In total it is close to being a tactical draw but it was a big strategic victory for the Russians.

The problem with your earlier Tannenberg is Gumbinnen greatly slowed the advance of Russian First Army and this allowed the Germans to pounce on Second Army at Tannenberg.

I would suggest an alteration. Instead of Gumbinnen Prittwitz makes his stand in front of Insterburg and has all of his corps fully prepared. He lets the Russians bleed on his defenses and once their ammunition is expended counterattacks. Rennenkampf is soundly spanked and scurries back east.

The result of this is Moltke is convinced that Prittwitz has the Eastern Front under control. So Guard Reserve Corps and XI Army Corps are not moved east. With Russian First Army licking its wounds then you get not an earlier Tannenberg but something similar (probably a little deeper into East Prussia) 2-3 days later.

OK now you need to flesh out what happens in the West. Apparently you don't accept the common misconception that those 2 corps were all that was needed to make the Schlieffen Plan work BUT they should make some difference at the Marne. Even though you are more interested in the East you need to flesh out the West.

Getting back to the East I do know that just before he was sacked Moltke wanted to form a small German army in Silesia to fill what he thought was a dangerous gap between Eighth Army and the Austrians.

Thanks for the comments and suggestions. You are right that Gumbinnen slowed down the Russian First Army, so your suggestion of a battle at Insterburg makes sense. And since it is Hoffman who conceived Tannenberg OTL it is not likely to butterfly away the destruction of the second Russian Army which is very important in the timeline. So the opening of the timeline is:

The Battle of Stallupönen goes well for François and so convinces Prittwitz an offensive is possible. However François is convinced that the XVII Corps and the first reserves need time to prepare, so despite his hatred of giving up land, moves back first to Gumbinnen and then to Insterbur, where the three corps and the Cavalry division launch aa successful attack on the Russian first Army, driving them back. I'd imagine the Germans would have the upper hand of the conflict but would be under pressure from the Russian Artillery eventually. How far could they push them, to the border? Meanwhile the XX corps is facing the second army and Hoffman comes up with a brilliant plan to destroy the second army which comes to the attention of Prittwitz. With the first Russian army pushed back, they are used in a Tannenberg analogue which destroyed the second Russian Armies.

Thanks for the information about the Army at Silesia, do you think Moltke would send the army to the Austrian front if what happened happens? If we assume the Eighth Army does launch an offensive north and the Ninth does stay behind in defence, another army in Silesia would certainly make drawing the Russians in around Walsaw less dangerous. I was originally concerned that a counter attack from the Russians in Poland could severely damage the ninth army so the assault north would be called off (with disastrous consequences for the Austrians in the South). I rationalised that the defence of the Germans was up to the challenge, but a further Army makes it unlikely. But if they get sent to the Austrian front instead, it makes the Austrian attack more likely to succeed. About would the army be deployed? If it's too late then this is immaterial because the Central powers needed an assault before winter set in.

Thanks for the help.

Kvasir.
 
Five Corps vs Seven Corps

A couple of more points

If the Battle of Insterburg is too big a German win then Northwestern Front is going to tell Samsonov to pause and there goes your quasiTannenberg. So Rennenkamp has been given the proverbial bloody nose and is regrouping but is not so smashed he is on the defensive.

Now while the 2 corps (plus a cavalry division) Moltke sent east preMarne did not play a role in Tannenberg they were extremely important in the East starting in Sept. So with Moltke not moving them his options in the East remain extremely limited even in your scenerio. So you really need to work out what happens in the West with your alt Marne. It could be early Oct before any reinforcements arrive East. Until then there are only 5 German corps (incl. Landwehr Corps to play with)

So lets look at what happened historically:

After Tannenberg the Eighth Army tried to envelop Russian First Army at First Masurian Lakes and while I Corps does out flank the Russians for a while they escape.

Meanwhile to the south the battle of Rava Russka is waged 3-11 Sept. This is a very big defeat for the AH army which then spends the rest of Sept retreating and in early Oct are desperately trying to hold the line at Cracow and Gorlice. The Dynamic Duo then send 5 of their 7 corps to form Ninth Army on the left flank of KuK First army. These counterattack and for a fortnight are pushing the Russians back to the Vistula. However the Russians are laying a trap. They have assembled First, reconstructed Second and Fifth Armies behind the Vistula and are prepared to obliterate German Ninth Army. Ludendorff sort of senses this and starts backpedaling. Conrad tries to trap the counterattacking Russians as they cross the Vistula but the flank guard of Russian Fourth army is too strong and AH First Army suffers for it.

While this was going on the Russians also attacked Eighth Army in the vicinity of Augustowo and because Ludendorff had not instructed Eighth Army to entrench they were driven back for a while and just barely managed to stop the Russians.

So getting back to your TL I would see no Masurian Lake battle but Moltke send 2 of the 5 corps of Eighth Army to the form the nucleus of Ninth Army on the left flank on the Austrians around 14 Sept (they will take a while to get there)
 
Thinking about the Western Front, the two corps taken from the front were from the second and third armies and it was the second army and the first army which created the gap that led to the Battle of the Marne. Is it reasonable to assume that the extra troops would limit the size and threat of the gap? If so any retreat wouldn't be nearly as long, so could the Germans seize Verdun and and push the front past Calais? Such would be huge moral coups but of course wouldn't win the war. Finally been so close to Paris would probably lead to many more fruitless offences on the static front which could have disasterous consequences. Do any of you think these reasonable conclusions to make?
 
Thinking about the Western Front, the two corps taken from the front were from the second and third armies and it was the second army and the first army which created the gap that led to the Battle of the Marne. Is it reasonable to assume that the extra troops would limit the size and threat of the gap? If so any retreat wouldn't be nearly as long, so could the Germans seize Verdun and and push the front past Calais? Such would be huge moral coups but of course wouldn't win the war. Finally been so close to Paris would probably lead to many more fruitless offences on the static front which could have disasterous consequences. Do any of you think these reasonable conclusions to make?

I don't see how these corps would impact the Battle of Revigny which decided the fate of Verdun unless things go so bad on Joffre's left wing he feels compelled to withdraw Third Army to provide reinforcements (in OTL he had wanted to withdraw from Verdun but Sarrail talked him out of it. I feel that there is a good POD all by itself there)

There are many ways Alt Marne could play out incl. some where the extra corps make only a minor difference. One possibility on the good side is the French Fifth Army is so worn down by the stronger German Second Army that Desperate Frankie is in full retreat when the BEF counterattacks on Sept 9. Meanwhile the stronger Third Army is hurting Foch much worse at Marsh of St. Gond. This might give Bulow an opportunity to hit the right flank of the BEF as it counterattacks on 9 Sep. Meanwhile Kluck has enveloped the left flank of Sixth Army.

I would still see the Schlieffen Plan not fully working if nothing else because the Germans are tired and have outrun their supply lines. However if the Seventh Army can be brought to the right wing of First Army as Moltke originally wanted and not used to plug the gap the whole race to the sea could turn out a lot differently starting with the Germans holding on to the key city of Amiens.
 
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