A Different Conclusion to the Pruth River Campaign

Something I happened across the other day that doesn't seem to have been discussed much on the site that I can find. During the Great Northern War when the Swedish army under the command of Charles XII was defeated by the Russians at the Battle of Poltava in July of 1709 after which Charles escaped to and sought sanctuary with the Ottoman Empire. The Tsar Peter the Great kept demanding that the Ottomans turn Charles over to him which just annoyed the Sultan, so much so that he eventually declared war on Russia on 20 November 1710 resulting in what became known as the Pruth River Campaign. The whole affair was something of a fiasco for the Russians with their invasion of Moldavia led by Peter in person being defeated and surrounded by the Ottoman army led by the Grand Vizier Baltaci Mehmet Pasha. The Russians hadn't yet been completely defeated but they were surrounded and cut off with the last of their food just about gone, the Tsar telling his negotiator that he was to offer anything short of surrender and having to go into captivity. Now the Ottoman troops were pretty exhausted themselves so in what became the Treaty of Pruth Baltaci Mehmet Pasha was seemingly fairly magnanimous in only asking for the return Azov, Taganrog and a number of Russian border fortresses were to be demolished and the Tsar promised to stop interfering into the internal affairs of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Initially greeted as a success he later fell into disfavour and exiled for what was seen as a highly lenient agreement. Supposing that Baltaci Mehmet Pasha gets wind of how desperate the Russians are what is the most that people think he could ask for?

The other possible point of departure is Peter the Great either being killed or captured by the Ottomans. His son Alexei Petrovich was twenty at the time, what was his position like? Peter's reforms weren't exactly popular with the Russian nobles with only his personal authority and military power getting them to go along with things. Could we see Alexei either overthrown or effectively becoming a puppet? I've seen some sources stating that Peter had left instructions that would have cut Alexei out of the picture with the Senate electing a new monarch from within their own numbers. Any ideas on who would come out on top?

However much this might all screw with Russia I don't think it's really going to do all that much for Sweden. Unless the Ottomans decide to intervene decisively, and since they mostly bowed out of the greater war after the Treaty of Pruth I think that would be unlikely, Sweden has already lost one army and her other major one under Stenbock is messing around in Germany and going to be defeated in about a year in our timeline. That seems to be the reason why Charles stayed in Moldavia for so long after the treaty had been signed, trying to convince the Sultan to attack Russia but without avail. So Russia is likely to still gain the territory it did with the Treaty of Nystad but after that which way Russia goes is the question. Does the new monarch continue with Peter's reforms or is his position or just personal inclination to stop them or even roll them back?
 
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