A Different Computer Industry TL..

For you Acorn users, a picture of RISC OS, circa late 1990s (OTL RISC OS 3.7):

riscos37.png
 

Cyrrylia

Banned
One was that low-end non-PC-based computers had better success than OTL in the home market - especially Commodore Amigas.

Yay! I loved my Amiga. I recently got an emulator for it so I could use it on my PC.
 
So Dan, what do you think a average computer in the US (2000) will have in terms of system requirements.

Will they be more powerful or less powerful than today?

I'll use my computer which I bought in 2000 as an example. (I've upgraded it quite a bit since then)

1.2 Ghz Pentium
256 mb Ram
40 gig harddrive
16 mb Graphics Card
 
Oh, and BTW... I'm thinking about there actually being a Commodore 66 - a successor to the successor to the 64. Coming out in the mid-late 1990s, it would basically be an 'ultimate Commodore 64' with 20 mHz 65816 (OTL 'SuperCPU'), 512k standard RAM expandable to 16 mB, and an upgraded/modernized GEOS). The machine would cater to India and to a shrinking pool of Commodore 64 enthusiasts.

Like the cheap Linux machines sold in the 3rd world today? Sounds very interesting.

Would outsourcing be such a big trend since India is running Commodore and the US is using more advanced hardware?
 
So Dan, what do you think a average computer in the US (2000) will have in terms of system requirements.

Will they be more powerful or less powerful than today?

I'll use my computer which I bought in 2000 as an example. (I've upgraded it quite a bit since then)

1.2 Ghz Pentium
256 mb Ram
40 gig harddrive
16 mb Graphics Card


I think, compared to OTL, your typical computer will have a processor more akin to an OTL PowerPC - a bit slower on the sheer megahertz front, but it makes things up in other areas. Also, the computer probably has marginally better 2d graphics capability. Its more a matter of different technology, not faster or slower. Heck, OTL and TTL computers can even share files, plain text is identical (ASCII comes from the 1960s and Unicode from around the time of the PODs) and older formats are similar (the 2007 formats are probably incompatible, though). All floppy formats are the same as OTL, as are the first telecom protocols, but your laptop's wireless card won't be compatible with TTL's wireless internet.

Really, the overall speed of the computer won't be that different; its just that the brand might be. Dell and Gateway and HP are around, but they don't dominate like OTL; instead the largest PC brands (in 2000) are IBM, Compaq, and Apple (in no particular order). If you're laptop-shopping, Toshiba and Kaypro are the other major players there. You might also have a Morrow or a TeleVideo or an Epson (Dell and HP have surpassed all of them by 2000, but Gateway hasn't) - TeleVideos are very sleek looking, almost like modern OTL Macs, while Morrows are a bit overpriced and look like boxes but are renown for their toughness and reliability (part of the ugly look and high price is their extra-thick case). If you don't like PCs, you'll probably go for a Commodore Amiga - they sell a full line of machines, from really cheap to really expensive; they tend to be a bit less for the money than PCs but have good graphics and lots of people swear by them. Acorns are sold here, not in large numbers though; they are a big player in the European market.
 
Like the cheap Linux machines sold in the 3rd world today? Sounds very interesting.

Would outsourcing be such a big trend since India is running Commodore and the US is using more advanced hardware?

The Commodore 65 and 66 are quite effective for word processing and other simple tasks; you really don't need much by modern standards for them. Data storage is a drag, and is ultimately the thing that is dragging the computer down - no standard hard disk, and an 880kB (or 1.4 mB) floppy is increasingly small. Indeed, it is likely that if the Commodore 66 is to continue being sold, then its floppy drive will be replaced with a USB port for key drives- cheaper and stores more data.

Big businesses in India mostly use PCs or Amigas, at least by 2007. However, for the home and small business markets, in a country where the vast majority of the population makes less than $1,000 per year, a $149 computer may be all that they can afford (of course, that's only a base computer, no monitor or hard disk or printer or modem). The Indian government also made extensive use of the machines at first.

I think, by 2007, the Commodore 8-bit machines around since the PET are basically done in most of the world; 66s are still being sold but mainly in kit form to hobbyists (64 fanatics love to buy a 66 kit and tinker, best thing since Heathkits vanished!). There's still some wind left in them in India but even there its fading - the destitute half of the population couldn't afford a computer anyways, and the growing middle class is clamoring for 'real' machines like the Westerners use. The 65's main competitors, MSX machines and a few others (including home-brew knock-offs as well as some other brands) are all gone.
 

Cyrrylia

Banned
If you don't like PCs, you'll probably go for a Commodore Amiga - they sell a full line of machines, from really cheap to really expensive; they tend to be a bit less for the money than PCs but have good graphics and lots of people swear by them.

I swear by them!!!

Lol, I was always a bit annoyed about how windows managed to become the dominant player, when back then, I found my Amiga 500 so much better than anything Microsoft put out at the time.
 
I swear by them!!!

Lol, I was always a bit annoyed about how windows managed to become the dominant player, when back then, I found my Amiga 500 so much better than anything Microsoft put out at the time.

Do keep in mind that there is also a group who swears at Amigas - OS/3 loyalists, many different UNIX loyalists (Linux does have an Amiga port, though), Europeans who prefer Acorn, Commodore 6X loyalists, and people who just prefer PCs.

The reason Amigas are more expensive is their custom chipsets... as in OTL they have tons of co-processors and special cards for graphics, sound, etc. A top-end Amiga in 2007 (for only $20,000!) could multi-task PlayStation-3 quality games without a problem, and all the top graphical designers use Amigas. However, this means they cost more dough than the inferior but standardized PCs - and low-end models are more poorly equipped (Amiga in TTL is the last to transition to RISC processors, sticking to the 680X0 until the late 1990s), although the smaller numbers mean less...
 
A 2007-esque midrange machine (It's an Amiga because I haven't decided precisely what processors post-x86 machine PCs use, especially beyond the original "Pentium". Also, I've done more research on Commodore machines than on, say, Acorns or Alphas or others):

Amiga 2900T ('T' stands for tower; Amiga still sells some pizza-box machines too)
Motorola 98020 1.4 gHz (single-core, 64-bit)
512 MiB Chip RAM (expandable to 1 GB) - buy the 1 Gig expansion if you want your games to have quick graphics
512 MiB Fast RAM (expandable to 3 GB) - buy more RAM for anything that doesn't only require graphics or sound (AI-reliant games, high-end business applications, etc).
80 GB hard drive
DVD-RW drive (Optional Blu-Ray)
a bunch of custom cards and coprocessors
your usual USB/whatever ports
Operating System: AmigaOS 6

(the Motorola 98000 series are the successors to the 88000 series, basically a 64-bit RISC architecture with limited compatibility to the 680x0 and 880x0 series).

This computer executes graphics-rich applications much faster than most equivalent PCs, but the Chip RAM is slower for other applications, as its shared between the microprocessor and the graphics and sound chips (some cheap Amigas have only Chip RAM and they're slugs). Fast RAM is used only by the microprocessor.
 
A few random musings about alternate video game consoles, to be continued on later:

1. The Atari Jaguar has a more compact controller and better games. In TTL, Atari will fill Nintendo's role of being the last company to use cartridges instead of CDs or DVDs, up to and including 1997's Puma. The Jaguar's introduction might be delayed a few months compared to OTL.

2. Apple's Pippin has fairly little in common with the OTL machine; for one thing, it won't be essentially a cheap Mac. For another, it will be sold by Apple, not Bandai. And it'll be a little cheaper and sell a lot better.

3. The Turbografx-32 never sold in North America in OTL, but it sold in Japan as the PC-FX.

4. The Phillips CD-i probably doesn't exist in TTL; or if it does, they'll never get the rights to produce Nintendo-character games (So "Zelda: Winds of Gamelon" and "Hotel Mario" never exist). This is because Nintendo sticks with Sony for the development of a CD add-on to the Super Nintendo, and it is actually developed. That's also why there's no Playstation.

5. Sega will not pull a stunt and release the Saturn before the games are ready. The Dreamcast and XBox will also have less ginormous controllers (though the alt-XBox will only have one stick controller instead of two, this TL isn't intended to be more than mildly utopic).

6. "Apple IIgame" looks like an Apple IIc without a keyboard (small off-white rectangular machine with a built-in 5 1/4" floppy drive). Its innards are from the IIGS (minus expandability) and it has a joystick standard and IIGS keyboard optional.
 
Alternate computers

I loved my Commodore Vic 20, C64, Executive 64, C128, Amiga 1000, Amiga 2000, and Amiga 1200, but I have trouble seeing Commodore as a major force in computers during the Amiga era.

They had some serious problems: (1) Jack Tramiel really burned their dealer network when he mass-marketed the C64, leaving C= with a lot of enemies in the business even after he left for Atari. (2) The Plus-4 fiasco left them with a debt load that they had trouble managing, even during the Amiga's salad days. (3) Under Marshall Smith they invested heavily in manufacturing technology just before surface-mount technology became a major factor. That left them with a lot of factory space with higher costs than many of their competitors. (4) They went with the Motorola 68000 series, which at the time seemed like a smart thing to do, but it made them dependent on Motorola, and Motorola did a very poor job of growing their microprocessor business compared to Intel and AMD. (5) Apple beat them to the punch in terms of getting most of the functions of an 8-bit computer onto a single chip, which meant that Apple could at any point cut the heart out of C= 8-bit business by coming out with a very low cost Apple II series machine. (Actually the Plus-4 did have a similar highly integrated chip, but C= wasn't able to do something similar for the C64 until the waning days of that machine)

I like the fact that this time-line has the C65 actually coming out. I thought that not coming out with it was one of C= biggest mistakes. I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the Commodore Portable. That was one of C= larger lost opportunities.

So probably was dropping their own 16-bit processor efforts in favor of the Zilog Z8000 late in the Tramiel era. I say probably because I've never seen detailed enough information on the Commodore effort to know for sure if it was promising or not.

I've seen possible Commodore 16-bit processors mentioned under two names: The "Dual 6502", and something called the 65000. The 65000 doesn't appear to have been a 16-bit 6502. It had segmented address space and a lot of registers. The buzz was that it was a really smoking chip, but after IBM came out with the PC Tramiel apparently canceled it in favor of the Z8000, thinking that C= could get a Z8000-based computer to market faster than a 65000-based one.

The original plan was that Commodore would come out with a low-priced, very powerful computer based on the Z8000 and the Coherent operating system, a very compact Unix work-alike. The prototype of that computer supposedly turned up missing about the time several top Commodore engineers defected to Tramiel's Atari. Commodore continued to develop a Z8000-based machine, but they shifted to the higher end and a true Unix-based machine. They showed that machine (called the C900) at CES one year. I think I still have one of the advertising brochures for it around somewhere. Commodore eventually realized that the Amiga had more potential and that they didn't have the resources to bring both the Amiga and the C900 to market at the same time.

One other odd-ball possibility: Commodore developed their own way of presenting information on line in a rich way about the time the world wide web was becoming important. I can't for the life of me remember what they called it, but for a while a lot of Amiga-oriented on-line stuff was in that format. Would a stronger Commodore have meant an Amiga-specific world wide web work-alike? That would have been interesting.

This is probably way more than most of you wanted to hear about Commodore's might-have-beens, but it has been a while since I've talked about the subject.

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Check out Dale Cozort's Alternate History Newsletter - nine years of Alternate History ideas, scenarios, and fiction.
 
A 2007-esque midrange machine (It's an Amiga because I haven't decided precisely what processors post-x86 machine PCs use, especially beyond the original "Pentium". Also, I've done more research on Commodore machines than on, say, Acorns or Alphas or others):

Amiga 2900T ('T' stands for tower; Amiga still sells some pizza-box machines too)
Motorola 98020 1.4 gHz (single-core, 64-bit)
512 MiB Chip RAM (expandable to 1 GB) - buy the 1 Gig expansion if you want your games to have quick graphics
512 MiB Fast RAM (expandable to 3 GB) - buy more RAM for anything that doesn't only require graphics or sound (AI-reliant games, high-end business applications, etc).
80 GB hard drive
DVD-RW drive (Optional Blu-Ray)
a bunch of custom cards and coprocessors
your usual USB/whatever ports
Operating System: AmigaOS 6

Your hard drive spec seems awfully small for a 2007 desktop computer, more like what a laptop would have. To compare; when I built my current system in 2005, I put in two 160GB Western Digital parallel ATA hard drives, and even then 160GB's were beginning to be a bit on the small side. Today, I think the average HD size in a major-brand computer would be more like 300GB or even 400GB.

Speaking of hard drives, do they develop in TTL like in OTL (that is, from the various architectures standardizing on IDE/EIDE/ATA/PATA and then on to SATA)? And who are the major hard-drive manufacturers?

You'll also want, I think, to look at graphics-card manufacturers. In OTL, of course, it's basically a split between ATI (which makes its own cards as well as licenses its chipsets to third parties) and nVidia (which pretty much just licenses its chipsets out). Which major companies develop and stay the course?

-Joe-
 
For hard drives, a mild oops. My own laptop is only 40 gB, and I really don't keep track of desktop hard drive size (my parents do have a 3 year old computer with 100 gB, but to me it still seems huge - no more than 25 gigs or so were ever used!), in part because I don't usually download long movies.

As for Commodore:
Commodore does, in this TL, about as well as OTLs Apple - they certainly have their hard times, but don't go bankrupt. Even in OTL, that seems reasonable - Apple was pretty nearly bankrupt around 1997, for example.

My assumption, perhaps an additional POD even, is that in TTL Commodore's post-Tramiel businessmen don't have a critical case of brain damage (yes, Commodore did have quite a few duds - Commodore MAX, Commodore 116, Commodore Plus/4, Commodore SX-64 (is this the 'Commodore Portable' you reference, Dale?), Commodore Amiga 600, Commodore 64 games system etc. However, need I reference the Mac Portable, Apple Newton, Apple/Bandai Pippin, Apple III, Lisa,...). The difference is, in this TL, they do two things:
1. Manage their money better - right until the very end, Commodore had many money-making products like the Amiga 1200 and even the 32CD (it was a top seller in Europe, indeed Commodore as a whole did best there).
2. Actually push their computers. For example, I have Commodore make a real slick deal with the Indian government - have Commodore 64s (and later 65s) made, both for home-market and export, there. The results: first, C64s late in life become a touch cheaper (and perhaps a tiny bit lower in quality). Second, they are able to exploit a huge market (India) with the C65 - My thought is that the Indian government buys a large number of early models, eager to have a low-cost machine built in India (rather than foreign brands or a more expensive Indian-built PC knockoff). They also advertise better.
 
For graphics controllers...hmm... for one thing, Amigas always keep a more-or-less custom chipset. The costs are kept somewhat reasonable, because Commodore owns MOS and builds most of its own chips in-house, but they're still more expensive than the other graphics houses (which are the same as OTL, except maybe 3dfx survives).


One of my thoughts, if I ever get around to it, is a second multiPOD, this time somewhat earlier (1979-1980).
1. During the course of Apple III development, one of the engineers rather forcefully confronts Steve Jobs about his unrealistic expectations for the machine, and is backed up by Wozniak. Jobs backs down somewhat, and the Apple III has a slightly bigger case, a fan, and better Apple II compatibility. It still has a faulty system clock and some other problems, but it doesn't have chronic overheating issues and manages to actually sell decently. This cascades into a better Lisa, more practical Mac, and a more successful Apple.

2. IBM bureaucracy interferes big-time with the PC project. The result? The machine is 2 years later than OTL and conforms to IBMisms instead of industry standards (using an in-house IBM processor, 8" floppies, EBCDIC, etc). The result is a much less successful machine, and no PC standard - some businesses would buy IBM, but Apple, Radio Shack, and Commodore are all more popular.

This might affect Commodore, incidentally - if the IBM PC had the affect of canceling the 65000 (Wikipedia has nothing on it, incidentally), then this could affect Commodore in the future. If the C900, or a similar machine, comes out, Commodore probably never buys Amiga. You might have Atari Amigas instead...

RAdio Shack could become the dominant manufacturer of business machines - they released a Motorola 68000-based XENIX machine (the Radio Shack TRS-80 Model 16) around 1982.

In said TL, XENIX and Coherent (and Lisa Office System, and CP/M-68k...) could be bigger players, same with the Motorola 680X0 (no IBM to standardize on the Intel x86).
 
Commodore "Portable" & 65000

Two things, first I screwed up when I wrote Commodore Portable. I meant the Commodore LCD. That was a nice-looking little computer. It was shown at the same time as or shortly before the C128. It was based on a CMOS variation of the 6502 processor, with 32k of RAM, something like 92k of ROM, which included several business-oriented programs, an 80x16 monochrome LCD screen, and a port for a barcode reader. I actually saw one in the plastic at a users group meeting in Lincoln Illinois. For the time period it was a very nice little computer. I may have an old brochure on it around somewhere. I should scan some of those old brochure in and post them somewhere.

Second, the only mentions I have seen of the Commodore 16-bit processors were in rumor columns. There were two mentions of the 65000 in Sol Libes rumor column in the old BYTE magazine. There was another mention of what sounds like the same processor in the rumor column of the old Midnite Software Gazette. I don't remember if that article used that name. The guy that did the Gazette had good sources inside Commodore engineering and usually knew what he was talking about. I still have the Gazettes around somewhere. I'll see if I can dig them up sometime early next week, and post the specifics. There was also a Wall Street Journal article that mentioned in passing that Commodore had scrapped a 16-bit processor effort, if I recall correctly. (Don't count on that, this was a lot of years ago). I asked a Commodore engineer (Fred Bowen?) about it during a QLink Q&A session and he didn't know anything about it.

In a Byte interview, Chuck Peddle mentioned the "dual 6502" as an option he looked at before deciding on an Intel processor for the computer he designed after he left Commodore. He said that he didn't go with the dual 6502 because of lack of software in the US. One of my friends with sources inside Commodore claimed that the dual 6502 was a 16-bit 6502, which sounds reasonable given the name. In this case, my source sometimes knew what he was talking about and sometimes just thought he did, so a degree of skepticism is in order.

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Check out Dale Cozort's Alternate History Newsletter - nine years of Alternate History ideas, scenarios, and fiction.
 
Update, 1993 and at least part of 1994.

1993:
- Atari, which bought the rights to GEM in 1991 from Claris, makes the following decisions:
- phasing out the ST computers.
- continuing to sell the 68030-based Atari Falcon running MiNT, an almost-open-source OS based on the prior TOS/GEM.
- Preparing to sell the Jaguar video game system. The system has a few differences from OTL; basically the controller is half the size of OTL (the 'numeric keypad' is missing). It does capture much of the limelight of the 1993 Christmas season, despite having relatively few goodgames at the start. It, together with the new Super Nintendo CD and the Amiga 32CD (OTL CD-32), together blow the new 3DO system out of the water in terms of sales (although rumors are spreading that Sega and Turbografx aren't lying still, and that Nintendo has a secret project for a "Jaguar- killer" lurking and that Apple may be re-entering the market soon).
- Intel announces the release of the Pentium RISC processor, a replacement for their x86 series. It almost has an 80486SX built into the chip, kind of cutting down on the RISC nature but allowing partial compatability with x86 software. Sales are slow at first, more vendors are buying 486DX2 and DX4 chips, but IBM and others begin to consider using them on the chips on their next - generation computers.
- Apple announces that, after 7 years of production, the IIGS and its video-game-console version, the IIgame, will be leaving the market. This leaves the only Apple II product left being the Apple IIes, basically a cost-reduced Apple IIe around solely for the bottom level of the education market. It will be phased out in 1994, after variations of the Apple II have been on the market for 17 years (in 1997, though, Apple does build a handful of '20th Anniversary Edition' Apple II's using leftover components from Apple IIs and Apple IIe cards used in Performas).
- The formal 'divorce' of IBM and Microsoft over OS/2. In the end, Microsoft acquires the rights to manufacture and sell all members of the OS/2 and the upcoming OS/3 family of operating systems, although they do have to pay IBM a decent settlement. IBM also gets to sell all members of the OS/2 family up to the 3.x series without chargin Microsoft. This spurs Microsoft in developing OS/3. It also spurs IBM into updating and modifying AIX, their UNIX-based operating system, to run on the new Intel Pentiums.

1994:
- A minor shockwave runs through the computer world as a venerable manufacturer goes bankrupt. It's Victor, which has been making IBM PC-compatibles and semi-compatibles for more than a decade. Its assets are acquired by Dell Computer, Michael Dell's fledgling computer company.
- The 1.0 release of the Linux Kernel. As community involvement in the Linux project has grown, the amount of actual code done by Linus Torvalds is only a tiny percentage of the overall project; his main purpose is as the 'benevolent dictator' of kernel development. GNU partisans claim that, due to the large percentage of GNU software included aside from the kernel, that the system should be called 'GNU/Linux'; This is reflected in some of the early distributions, such as Debian GNU/Linux and Moonshine GNU/Linux. Others, like Slackware Linux and Serenity Linux, ignore this (Debian and Slackware are OTL distributions; Moonshine and Serenity might exist in OTL but not in the same sense). Most Linux distributions are for Intel 386 processors, although early ports include for the Pentium, Motorola 880x0 (in NeXT workstations), and 680x0 (for Atari Falcon and Commodore Amiga. (see, DoctorMO, I haven't forgotten you! :p)
- Commodore introduces the Amiga Advanced Architecture.
- The World Wide Web (development largely as OTL) begins to take off.
 
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