A different Ciscaucasia

The United States of North Caucasus
2008 - today


Quick background (wip) :

In 2008, right after the Russo-Georgian war, Abkhazia and South Osseita officially declared their independence from Georgia. At the same time, both made an alliance, called the "Caucasian Union". Weakened by this war, Georgia didn't oppose to the independence of these territories. But the separatist movement caught on like a wildfire in the region.

North Ossetia, in turn, declares its independence with the aim of joining South Ossetia. Chechnya seceded from Russia in the same will of joining the union of caucasian minorities. Russia did not use military force, because both territories were making an alliance with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, therefore there was a tie between opposing or being in truce.

Like a snowball effect, Ingushetia and Dagestan joined. Then, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia, followed by Adygea. These three territories were not that much separatist, but the feeling of a stronger and recognized identity, plus the ideological movement of caucasian nationalism, made them joining the union.

But, in exchange of this secession, the new federation of North Caucasus will have to only buy and sold to Russia and use its gas. Also, Adygea being enclaved, a part of the russian territory including Sochi has been ceded to the united states, in return of the north-east Dagestan which is populated by russians. There has been some population displacements, russians leaving the new country and minorities joining it.

The states of North Ossetia and South Ossetia were merged into Ossetia and Chechnya and Ingushetia into Chechen-Ingushetia. Dagestan was split into Nogay, Cuman, Avaria and South Dagestan, respecting the location of the ethnic minorities.

The country being largely influenced by the model of the United States of America and the country being strongly supported by them, english has been chosen as the lingua franca.

Map :

USNCMapAH.png


Symbols :

Flag of the country :

UnitedStatesOfNorthCaucasusFlag.png

Emblem of the country :

UnitedStatesOfNorthCaucasusSeal.png

Flags and emblems of the states :

NorthCaucasusFlagsAndSeals.png


Administrative Structure :

NorthCaucasusAdministration.png



All of this is still in progress. Opinions and criticisms are welcome.
 
That state would make early 1990s Yugoslavia look like a paragon of stability and tolerance. The Ossetians have very difficult relations with the Ingush and Chechens, to say the least.

The only way I could see a state like that working is under an Islamist system rather than any sort of ethnic nationalism or invented pan-nationalism (which always tended to be religious). This would not go over well with the Ossetians or the Russians, who would violently fight back. They pretty much have no chance of success unless Russia utterly, utterly collapses during the 90s. Assuming they somehow win like ISIS did against Iraq several years back, the result would be pretty similar, and would also involve mass violence and ethnic cleansing against Russians, Ossetians, and any Christians. Many of the radical Islamists in the region nowadays actually are ISIS members under one of ISIS's regional "provinces". Any Islamist movement in the region would probably radicalise rather quickly given the amount of intercommunal violence that would be taking place.
 
Some criticisms with your premise:

1. Russia's not going to let large areas of the Caucasus secede. The Russian government has never taken a friendly view towards those trying to secede, and by 2008 had fought two bloody wars to keep control over Chechnya and the other North Caucasus states. Even if the Russian government was at all sympathetic letting these areas go would be incredibly unpopular with the people (who would see it as yet another humiliating dismemberment) and would probably lead to the fall of the Medvedev/Putin government.

2. The republics themselves don't have much of a reason to do this. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are basically puppet states, and depend on Russia for economic and military aid, so there's no way they're going to risk confrontation with Russia. Within the Russian North Caucasus many of the pro-secession groups are Islamist, and thus hostile to American-style democracy. Finally, many of the ethnic groups in this confederation hate each other. For example Ossetians and Ingush have fought in the past over the Prigorodny District in North Ossetia, which ended in ethnic cleansing. There has also been tension between the Karachay and Circassians in Karachay-Cherkessia.

3. The whole thing with America doesn't make any sense. There's no reason for Russia to accept territories like Sochi being ceded to the US, and no reason for the US to accept those territories. America would also be reluctant to support this new state for a variety of reasons. The first is that it would seriously anger Georgia, which is a strong American ally. It would also anger Russia, and while the Russo-Georgian War hurt relations they weren't nearly as bad as they are now, and Bush didn't want to provoke conflict with Russia (and when Obama came into office there was an attempt to improve relations between the two countries). Additionally, the US would be worried about the new country being a safe haven for terrorists, and would fear that recognizing it would set a precedent that would allow nations like Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh to gain widespread recognition. Finally, English as the lingua franca for a Caucasian state is nonsensical. I can't find statistics for the region itself, but only 6% of people in Russia as a whole speak English, and a large part of that is people in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. It makes much more sense for the country to use Russian as the official language, and for each constituent state to specify its own official language.
 
Thanks all.

I'm realizing while reading your messages that my project is pretty much surreal. So I put this in my to do list :

- Make the country islamist and radical, united around the religion but having quickly fell into radicalism.
- No support from any country, whatsoever USA or Russia.
- Russian as lingua franca.

And I'm realizing that with even doing this, there are still inconsistencies : why would the country use russian as the lingua franca if it is ruled by islamists which are not friendly with Russia? how would the country erase the conflicts between minorities and make them unite?

I agree that this alternate history project is wacky, I did it with not enough knowledge in this domain.
 
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