WI: A different Barbarossa.
First, moves toward Moscow and Leningrad are scrapped altogether before the start of the war, instead attacks that only looks as if they are aimed at these cities to attract Red Army remnants there are launched.
At most, these offensives threaten Smolensk and some artillery shells are fired uppon the outskirt of Leningrad by advanced units.
Axis forces in Finland remaines on the defensive, although efforts are made to developpe better supplies in Finland, inn preparations for the time when the 3rd Reich occupies Murmansk and Archangelsk.
Since the Soviet-Union collapsing is inevitable anywhay, Hitler decided that occupying these cities in the course of the campaign would be a waste of valuable time and ressources.
There is a greater focus on economical warfare, the USSR (Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic) is the primary target from the beginning, focus on the north-east 1/3 might be lesser.
For some reasons, Hitler and some others believes there is a high probability that the Brits would advance through Iran and occupy the caucase oil fields when the Soviet-Union collapses, should the european axis allows it by focusing activities elsewhere. In general, oil ressources there would solve the supply problem of the 3rd Reich, once infrastructures for its extraction have beem re-built.
Thus, the secondary objective of Barbarossa is the caucase, especially Baku.
How does things goes from there?
Evidently, terrain would be a problem in the southern caucase when combined to armed resistance, there is a high probability Baku isn´t seized in the course of latter 1941 and even early 1942.
Perhapse, it could netherless be a TTL version of the Siege of Sevastopol.
The recent POD, somwhere in 1940, doesn´t make the sovietic regime particulary stronger or weaker than historically. As IOTL, beliefs in a soviet collapse within 4 weeks prooves somewhat premature, although it doesn´t cause Hitler to shift his plans back to a race for Moscow and Leningrad.