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The 1900 election was pretty much a guaranteed win for McKinley, it was more of a question of how much. The margin of victory at the end of the election turned out to be lower than expected when it finally happened. Incumbent McKinley won in a rematch against the Democrat William Jennings Bryan, winning 237 electorate votes to 210, winning by a margin of 541,000 in the popular vote.
The election was mainly oriented on domestic policy, McKinley focusing on his protectionist history, while Bryan ran on a Western Populist message, notably advocating for a switch to the Silver Standard. McKinley publicly advocated a more interventionist foreign policy on the campaign, unpopular among the isolationist public. The American intervention in the Boxer Rebellion and their receiving the concession of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Formosa was the most that resulted from this attempted policy. But the American public seemed to be satisfied with the job that the president was doing, with opposition to the president not really strong enough to make Bryan win. His VP was even someone also from Ohio, instead of a swing state as usual. Either way, McKinley coasted to victory. [1]
Mckinley was inaugurated on March 4th 1901, and soon afterward made a tour of the nation, including a visit to the Pan-American Expedition where he ended his tour.
-Paul Sanchez “United States Presidential Election of 1900.” Encyclopædia Britannica
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One tragic event that happened during the exposition was while McKinley was touring the expedition, a glass pane somehow fell from the ceiling, unfortunately hitting a man in the head, while the shards injured two others. The blunt trauma of the sheet of glass alone from the height of 150 feet would’ve killed him alone, so it was not a surprise when the man died of his injuries almost right away. That man was the new Vice President, William Howard Taft. McKinley’s Secret Service agent, George Foster, and McKinley himself eventually recovered from his injuries. But to this day no one knows what caused the window pane to fall, as inspection of the frame seemed to suspect foul play. Some theories point to worker and suspected Polish anarchist Leon Czolgosz as the cause of the event, though that theory is unsupported and he never lived to see any consequences for his actions if he did. Overall the incident is certainly an example of the fact that sometimes truth can be stranger than fiction.
-”1901.” William McKinley, the 25th President, by James K. Phillip, Times Books, 1982.
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PC: Could America win this “Spanish American War?”
The USS Maine was one of the first American battleships, being built over a period of 7 years, though it had been out of date by the time of its creation. At first it had been classified an armored cruiser, being built at a time when the South American naval arms race had been in full swing. Though it attempted to catch up to European standards, it still failed. It became somewhat of a standard for the Americans in a time where American battleships had been a hodge-podge of battleships and random “one-off ships”. Otherwise it went through its time in service normally, without event. That is except for a fire on the ship in 1898 during an expedition to Cuba to protect the safety of American citizens during the Cuban Revolt. A recent finding has shown that if the fire reached the ammunition stocks, the ship would not have survived the resulting explosion.
What many on the board don’t know is that at the time, was that McKinley and SecState John Hay advocated outright war with Spain, not like this war would be popular. While Spain was a dying power, many were scared that they could still fight back. Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines were basically seen as integral parts of Spain after all. They’re probably going to fight America VERY hard.
So all context aside, what would happen if the USS Maine’s fire reached the ammunition stocks and made an explosion, and for some reason the Yellow Journalists like Pulitzer or Hearst were mainstream (I have no idea how to do it, just assume I do), and war starts with Spain, how does this affect America’s power on the world stage?
Cromwellian: Well I’m guessing that America would reach a position of power on the world stage earlier, the Navy would probably actually be able to compete with the Royal Navy maybe a decade in advance. I’d say the 30s or so. Also what would make Yellow Journalism popular? They were notoriously inaccurate and even ignoring that, they weren’t all that political. Interesting idea though, I would read that TL. Especially since it will bring Teddy to the limelight earlier!
CollieViper: Your idea is interesting, honestly quite weird, but interesting. I have no idea how this would go, but it’s much more original then the German-American War TL’s that pop up so often. Though come to think of it this may lead to a German American War if the U.S. is more hawkish.
I’d suggest as a good extra POD is for Roosevelt to become VP after Hobart dies, and then get McKinley to die during the Hall of Music incident. Or if you don’t like Earlier Teddy TL’s you could have the president die at the Exposition with Hobart dying soon after the inauguration. Say hello to a John Hay presidency!
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Rundown of divergences since McKinley’s first inauguration
Venezuela Crisis→ Main POD for this TL. Negotiations go by largely like they did OTL except the British are more belligerent in negotiations, deciding they can risk an international incident from this. Venezuela, and by extension America see the British gain most of the extreme claims to Guiana. America’s attempt at arbitration proved unsuccessful, and America takes on a more isolationist foreign policy.
Spanish-American War→ The U.S.S. Maine never sunk, as the fire on the deck never reached the ammunition storage (I assume the explosion was an accident.) With no other incident to rally around, and with Yellow Journalism having less of an audience (A minor POD), only McKinley’s government want war and they are without a casus belli that would gain public support. The public couldn’t care less about Cuba or the Philippines. As Spain slowly loses its hold on the remnants of its colonial empire, Germany intervenes in the conflict and takes Spain's Pacific territories. Britain declares Cuba as well as Puerto Rico a British protectorate.
[1] So McKinley still won, big whoop. So what he won by a lower margin?
Not much changes, you’re right. Well if you could guess, no Spanish American War means he doesn’t get to the same victory as he did OTL. Bryan picks up some Western States and New York sees larger turnout in the city, leading to a somewhat lower margin of victory. The most interesting thing out of this is that the Republicans TTL don’t gain the Mormon electorate as easily thanks to butterflies.
Well yeah, this Timeline is a thing…I wanted to do this for a while, and now here it is. This is my first proper TL if I’m right. If there’s anything too implausible just tell me. Thoughts, comments concerns? Any predictions for the McKinley presidency?