Eurofed
Banned
We have discussed a more extreme version of this PoD in a previous thread, the recent discussion about a more lenient 1871 peace has inspired me to dust it off in a more moderate version.
Let's assume that in 1866 some changes occur in the Italian military chain of command that leave the Italian Army and Navy with better commanders. As a result, Italy wins as decisive a land victory at Custoza as Prussia does at Sadowa, while the naval battle of Lissa is another complete Italian victory. Austria is left without an intact army and navy and comes to the brink of internal collapse, so is forced to plead for a beggar's peace.
The Prussian King and generals claim the annexation of Bohemia-Moravia, while Italy claims Venetia, Trento, Kustenland, and Dalmatia. Bismarck resists such extreme demands, fearing French (and British) intervention, however he lacks any good ground with the rest of the Prussian elite and Italian allies to give Austria a truly lenient peace. Napoleon III and Britain oppose a radical dismemberment of Austria, however, given the depth of Austrian defeat and its internal instability, not to mention Russian support for "sensible" Prusso-Italian gains, they are willing to acknowledge a one-sided peace for Prussia and Italy.
The final peace settlment sees Prussia annexing all its OTL gains plus Saxony (Austria is in no position to call for it being spared as IOTL), Austrian Silesia, and the areas of northern Bohemia and Moravia with a German majority which border the new boundaries of Prussia. Prussian generals and diplomats successfully argue with Bismarck that annexing Austrian Silesia alone is too trivial a gain, and German areas of northern Bohemia-Moravia, even if they are no definite historical region, are rather valuable strategically and economically and make a good compromise between annexing AS and whole Bohemia-Moravia, which France (and Britain) would oppose. Italy annexes Venetia, Trento, Belluno, and Gorizia-Gradisca, even if Austria, with French support, successfuly resists Italian claims on Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia, affirming that their ports are too vital to Austrian economy. France is further appeased by Bismarck with half-insincere secret promises of Prussian and Italian support for French annexation of Wallonia and/or Luxemburg. Britain deems that the adjustment to the balance of power is not radical enough to warrant its intervention in continental affairs, and moreover German and Italian unifications are popular among the British. Russia maintains its partnership with Prussia and plans to exploit Austrian weakness to help reverse the limits imposed on itself by the Crimean War, an expectation Bismarck supports.
Prussia and Italy are both pleased with the outcome of their military cooperation and reaffirm their secret defensive alliance against France and Austria alike. When France attacks Prussia, Italy honors the alliance, expecting to end French protection of Papal Latium and to recover Nice and Savoy with a victory.
The Franco-Prussian-Italian War may occur either as an excalation of the Luxemburg Crisis, or as IOTL, of the Spanish Succession controversy. Although still fundamentally moderate, Bismarck ITTL is moved to be somewhat less so since greater military and diplomatic success makes both the rest of the Prussian elite and German nationalists bolder. On his part, Napoleon III is even more eager than OTL to seize some (apparently) quick and easy diplomatic success, territorial gain, or military victory to reaffirm waning French power in Europe in the face of rising Prussian might and the budding Prussian-Italian axis. In all likelihood, Austria is left too weak by recent defeat and internal national contrasts to dare taking the side of France against widespread German nationalist sentiment aroused by French aggression.
The outcome of the war is a decisive Prusso-Italian victory which quickly triggers the formation of the German Empire. If the war occurs about the Luxemburg Crisis, Germany annexes Alsace-Lorraine and Luxemburg. If it triggers about the Spanish Succession, Germany annexes the whole Alsace and Lorraine provinces, and places the new Franco-German border on the Maas/Meuse. In the second scenario, Prussian generals and diplomats successfully argue against the weakness of the German claim on French-speaking western Lorraine quoting the better strategic and economic value of the Maas border, as well as the historical presence of such territories in the old HRE. However, it is also quite possible that in the first scenario, Germany gets all of Alsace and Lorraine, in addition to Luxemburg. In both cases, Italy regains Nice and Savoy, quite likely Corsica too, and completes its national unification with the annexation of Rome. Italy might also gain Eastern Algeria, or at the very least would make France recognize its own future claim on Tunisia.
Pleased with the ongoing success of their strategic partnership, Germany and Italy reaffirm it publicly in their Dual Alliance, which quickly entrenches as a cornerstone of the European alliance system all the way to WWI.
Both variants of the Franco-Prussian-Italian War are quite plausible, even if given the background of the scenario (and for the sake of originality), I assume it's somewhat more probable that the war occurs over Luxemburg.
Prussia quickly forms the Northern German Confederation (a true federation despite its name) with the surviving German states north of the Main, but the NGF also includes both halves of the Great Duchy of Hesse and Bavarian Rhenish Palatinate. After the war with France, Bavaria, Baden, and Wuttenberg, pushed by German nationalist feeling aroused by the patriotic war, quickly acknowledge the inevitability of unification and join it to form the German Empire.
Austria is left by crushing defeat in the grip of severe internal instability. The Habsburg dynasty and ruling elite has suffered another decisive defeat after 1859 and are largely discredited, Hungarians, Czechs, and Croats are again on the brink of open revolt, Austrian Germans' supremacy in the empire is further weakened since most Germans in Bohemia-Moravia have been lost to Prussia. The crisis may end up in the total collapse of the Habsburg Empire, in a German-Hungarian co-rule much like IOTL, however even more instable, or in a federal reform of the Empire which places Germans, Czechs, Hungarians, and Croats on an equal base, probably in this rough order of likelihood.
If the Empire collapses (and this is likely the most probable outcome), Germany and Russia reluctantly but quickly acknowledge that the Habsburg are an hopeless lost cause and Bismarck that Grossdeutchsland is inevitable, so they partition the Empire. Germany annexes Austria and Bohemia-Moravia, Russia gains Galicia and Bukovina, Italy annexes Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia, while Hungary-Croatia is made an independent kingdom, and a satellite of Germany and/or Russia, still multinational but with a more manageable mix of nationalities. In the following decades, it is possible that Germany, Italy, and Russia gradually entrench their budding partnership, initally just a component of Bismarck's complex diplomatic game, after his time it becomes a fixed military alliance and one side of the European alliances system as France and Britain close ranks against the Eastern block and rally other medium powers like Spain, Sweden, and the Ottoman Empire into their alliance. Alternatively it is also possible that Germany and Russia have a falling out if they develop competing ambitions over the Balkans and the Middle East. In such a case, France and Russia would surely grow closer and make an alliance, while Germany and Italy would strengten their strategic partnership. In this case, the place of Britain in the European alliance system becomes a toss-up, there are plausible chances that they would side with France-Russia, fearing German naval build-up, or with Germany-Italy, fearing Russian expansionism in the Middle East, and Central Asia, or that they would remain neutral, deeming Germany and Russia equally threatening and both alliances sufficiently balanced. In this scenario, Hungary is going to forsake major expansionism in the Balkans, focusing on keeping its multinational state united, although it would be very hostile to any attempt by neighboring Balkan states to stir up irredentism in its territories. It would become a satellite of Germany and/or of Russia, courting patronage in various and shifting degrees from both if the German-Russian alliance holds, sticking to either if they have a falling out, picking whatever patron seems to offer better chances of ensuring the integrity of its possessions. In this regard, Germany is the favorite option (Berlin is quite unlikely to support Pan-Slav and Romanian irredentism unless Hungary forces its hand by becoming hostile), but Russia cannot be ruled out (St.Petersburg may decide that Hungary makes a better Balkan proxy than its irredentist neighbors, and push Pan-Slavism to focus southward against the Ottomans).
If a shaky Ausgleich occurs and somehow barely stabilizes (likely the second most probable outcome), the Empire steps back from ultimate ruin, but remains rather instable and fraught with national contrasts, so Bismarck does not trust making a public alliance committment to it as a part of his diplomatic system. While ostensibly playing the part of the "honest broker", he privileges partnership with Russia and signs another public Dual Alliance with it. It quickly unfolds into the German-Russian-Italian Triple Alliance, while making a secret Reinsurance Treaty with Austria. After Bismarck leaves office, the Treaty of Reassurance is left to wither by his successors, so Austria, feeling weak and isolated, signs a Dual Entente alliance with France, which is eager to end its own isolation and seek allies against the German-Italian axis, however suboptimal as a main ally Austria may be. Eventually Britain, fearing the potential of the German-Russian alliance, ends its "splendid isolation" and joins the Triple Entente with France and Austria. Trying to balance the stronger Triple Alliance, France and Britain may attempt to woo Spain, Sweden, and the Ottomans in the Entente with various degrees of success. The rival alliance systems gradually entrench all the way to WWI.
If the Habsburg Empire evolves into a more stable federal Quadruple Monarchy (the least likely option of all), events still unfold into the formation of a German-Austrian-Italian Triple Alliance like IOTL, however Italy, having less irredentist claims (albeit still substantial) against a more stable Austria, facing greater revanchist and colonial hostility from France, and traditionally committed to a long-lasting alliance with Germany, remains true to the Triple Alliance in the wake of WWI, even it manages to wrest guarantees of further territorial gains from Austria (Trieste and Istria) as compensation for its intervention.
Honestly I don't know which of the three variants may be more likely, although the collapse-partition and the instable Ausgleich seem equally probable and somewhat more so than the federal Quadruple Monarchy reform.
Let's assume that in 1866 some changes occur in the Italian military chain of command that leave the Italian Army and Navy with better commanders. As a result, Italy wins as decisive a land victory at Custoza as Prussia does at Sadowa, while the naval battle of Lissa is another complete Italian victory. Austria is left without an intact army and navy and comes to the brink of internal collapse, so is forced to plead for a beggar's peace.
The Prussian King and generals claim the annexation of Bohemia-Moravia, while Italy claims Venetia, Trento, Kustenland, and Dalmatia. Bismarck resists such extreme demands, fearing French (and British) intervention, however he lacks any good ground with the rest of the Prussian elite and Italian allies to give Austria a truly lenient peace. Napoleon III and Britain oppose a radical dismemberment of Austria, however, given the depth of Austrian defeat and its internal instability, not to mention Russian support for "sensible" Prusso-Italian gains, they are willing to acknowledge a one-sided peace for Prussia and Italy.
The final peace settlment sees Prussia annexing all its OTL gains plus Saxony (Austria is in no position to call for it being spared as IOTL), Austrian Silesia, and the areas of northern Bohemia and Moravia with a German majority which border the new boundaries of Prussia. Prussian generals and diplomats successfully argue with Bismarck that annexing Austrian Silesia alone is too trivial a gain, and German areas of northern Bohemia-Moravia, even if they are no definite historical region, are rather valuable strategically and economically and make a good compromise between annexing AS and whole Bohemia-Moravia, which France (and Britain) would oppose. Italy annexes Venetia, Trento, Belluno, and Gorizia-Gradisca, even if Austria, with French support, successfuly resists Italian claims on Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia, affirming that their ports are too vital to Austrian economy. France is further appeased by Bismarck with half-insincere secret promises of Prussian and Italian support for French annexation of Wallonia and/or Luxemburg. Britain deems that the adjustment to the balance of power is not radical enough to warrant its intervention in continental affairs, and moreover German and Italian unifications are popular among the British. Russia maintains its partnership with Prussia and plans to exploit Austrian weakness to help reverse the limits imposed on itself by the Crimean War, an expectation Bismarck supports.
Prussia and Italy are both pleased with the outcome of their military cooperation and reaffirm their secret defensive alliance against France and Austria alike. When France attacks Prussia, Italy honors the alliance, expecting to end French protection of Papal Latium and to recover Nice and Savoy with a victory.
The Franco-Prussian-Italian War may occur either as an excalation of the Luxemburg Crisis, or as IOTL, of the Spanish Succession controversy. Although still fundamentally moderate, Bismarck ITTL is moved to be somewhat less so since greater military and diplomatic success makes both the rest of the Prussian elite and German nationalists bolder. On his part, Napoleon III is even more eager than OTL to seize some (apparently) quick and easy diplomatic success, territorial gain, or military victory to reaffirm waning French power in Europe in the face of rising Prussian might and the budding Prussian-Italian axis. In all likelihood, Austria is left too weak by recent defeat and internal national contrasts to dare taking the side of France against widespread German nationalist sentiment aroused by French aggression.
The outcome of the war is a decisive Prusso-Italian victory which quickly triggers the formation of the German Empire. If the war occurs about the Luxemburg Crisis, Germany annexes Alsace-Lorraine and Luxemburg. If it triggers about the Spanish Succession, Germany annexes the whole Alsace and Lorraine provinces, and places the new Franco-German border on the Maas/Meuse. In the second scenario, Prussian generals and diplomats successfully argue against the weakness of the German claim on French-speaking western Lorraine quoting the better strategic and economic value of the Maas border, as well as the historical presence of such territories in the old HRE. However, it is also quite possible that in the first scenario, Germany gets all of Alsace and Lorraine, in addition to Luxemburg. In both cases, Italy regains Nice and Savoy, quite likely Corsica too, and completes its national unification with the annexation of Rome. Italy might also gain Eastern Algeria, or at the very least would make France recognize its own future claim on Tunisia.
Pleased with the ongoing success of their strategic partnership, Germany and Italy reaffirm it publicly in their Dual Alliance, which quickly entrenches as a cornerstone of the European alliance system all the way to WWI.
Both variants of the Franco-Prussian-Italian War are quite plausible, even if given the background of the scenario (and for the sake of originality), I assume it's somewhat more probable that the war occurs over Luxemburg.
Prussia quickly forms the Northern German Confederation (a true federation despite its name) with the surviving German states north of the Main, but the NGF also includes both halves of the Great Duchy of Hesse and Bavarian Rhenish Palatinate. After the war with France, Bavaria, Baden, and Wuttenberg, pushed by German nationalist feeling aroused by the patriotic war, quickly acknowledge the inevitability of unification and join it to form the German Empire.
Austria is left by crushing defeat in the grip of severe internal instability. The Habsburg dynasty and ruling elite has suffered another decisive defeat after 1859 and are largely discredited, Hungarians, Czechs, and Croats are again on the brink of open revolt, Austrian Germans' supremacy in the empire is further weakened since most Germans in Bohemia-Moravia have been lost to Prussia. The crisis may end up in the total collapse of the Habsburg Empire, in a German-Hungarian co-rule much like IOTL, however even more instable, or in a federal reform of the Empire which places Germans, Czechs, Hungarians, and Croats on an equal base, probably in this rough order of likelihood.
If the Empire collapses (and this is likely the most probable outcome), Germany and Russia reluctantly but quickly acknowledge that the Habsburg are an hopeless lost cause and Bismarck that Grossdeutchsland is inevitable, so they partition the Empire. Germany annexes Austria and Bohemia-Moravia, Russia gains Galicia and Bukovina, Italy annexes Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia, while Hungary-Croatia is made an independent kingdom, and a satellite of Germany and/or Russia, still multinational but with a more manageable mix of nationalities. In the following decades, it is possible that Germany, Italy, and Russia gradually entrench their budding partnership, initally just a component of Bismarck's complex diplomatic game, after his time it becomes a fixed military alliance and one side of the European alliances system as France and Britain close ranks against the Eastern block and rally other medium powers like Spain, Sweden, and the Ottoman Empire into their alliance. Alternatively it is also possible that Germany and Russia have a falling out if they develop competing ambitions over the Balkans and the Middle East. In such a case, France and Russia would surely grow closer and make an alliance, while Germany and Italy would strengten their strategic partnership. In this case, the place of Britain in the European alliance system becomes a toss-up, there are plausible chances that they would side with France-Russia, fearing German naval build-up, or with Germany-Italy, fearing Russian expansionism in the Middle East, and Central Asia, or that they would remain neutral, deeming Germany and Russia equally threatening and both alliances sufficiently balanced. In this scenario, Hungary is going to forsake major expansionism in the Balkans, focusing on keeping its multinational state united, although it would be very hostile to any attempt by neighboring Balkan states to stir up irredentism in its territories. It would become a satellite of Germany and/or of Russia, courting patronage in various and shifting degrees from both if the German-Russian alliance holds, sticking to either if they have a falling out, picking whatever patron seems to offer better chances of ensuring the integrity of its possessions. In this regard, Germany is the favorite option (Berlin is quite unlikely to support Pan-Slav and Romanian irredentism unless Hungary forces its hand by becoming hostile), but Russia cannot be ruled out (St.Petersburg may decide that Hungary makes a better Balkan proxy than its irredentist neighbors, and push Pan-Slavism to focus southward against the Ottomans).
If a shaky Ausgleich occurs and somehow barely stabilizes (likely the second most probable outcome), the Empire steps back from ultimate ruin, but remains rather instable and fraught with national contrasts, so Bismarck does not trust making a public alliance committment to it as a part of his diplomatic system. While ostensibly playing the part of the "honest broker", he privileges partnership with Russia and signs another public Dual Alliance with it. It quickly unfolds into the German-Russian-Italian Triple Alliance, while making a secret Reinsurance Treaty with Austria. After Bismarck leaves office, the Treaty of Reassurance is left to wither by his successors, so Austria, feeling weak and isolated, signs a Dual Entente alliance with France, which is eager to end its own isolation and seek allies against the German-Italian axis, however suboptimal as a main ally Austria may be. Eventually Britain, fearing the potential of the German-Russian alliance, ends its "splendid isolation" and joins the Triple Entente with France and Austria. Trying to balance the stronger Triple Alliance, France and Britain may attempt to woo Spain, Sweden, and the Ottomans in the Entente with various degrees of success. The rival alliance systems gradually entrench all the way to WWI.
If the Habsburg Empire evolves into a more stable federal Quadruple Monarchy (the least likely option of all), events still unfold into the formation of a German-Austrian-Italian Triple Alliance like IOTL, however Italy, having less irredentist claims (albeit still substantial) against a more stable Austria, facing greater revanchist and colonial hostility from France, and traditionally committed to a long-lasting alliance with Germany, remains true to the Triple Alliance in the wake of WWI, even it manages to wrest guarantees of further territorial gains from Austria (Trieste and Istria) as compensation for its intervention.
Honestly I don't know which of the three variants may be more likely, although the collapse-partition and the instable Ausgleich seem equally probable and somewhat more so than the federal Quadruple Monarchy reform.
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