Real Life
In real life (our time line), General Howe and General Burgoyne sent their plans to deal with the rebellion to London.
Howe proposed a triple offensive while requesting 35K extra troops, a sea and land offensive against Philadelphia and a force to attack the Hudson. He suggested if he didn't get the troops he asked for, he would mount a single land offensive into New Jersey and if time permits, Philadelphia. Both plans were sound. The triple offensive might catch the rebel army in its jaws. The single offensive, while not likely to led to brilliant victory, would lead to land gains, rebel losses, and it could hardly be disastrous. It would put Howe between the largest body of enemy and New York, thereby protecting his base and leaving him free to protect if, or if necessarily Burgoyne. Then Howe changed his mind again and his last letter to London about his plans suggested a single offensive by sea.
General Burgoyne suggested that he attack Fort Ticonderoga and Albany. From here, he will cut communications and isolate New England, a hot spot for Patriot sentiment. Pre-war New England is dependent on the rest of the colonies for sugar, alcohol, copper, glass, blister steel, and cannonballs. While it would not be denuded of material, there would be shortages. Except for gunsmith and blacksmith work, the vast majority of the population an isolate New England would be reduced to a 15 century standard of living... in 1777. Burgoyne didn't know this, but coincidentally, 3/4 of the rebel artillery was in new England in 1777, most of the rest going to General Washington. Since New England is easier to blockade than an entire 13 colonies, this means the ammo cannot reach the artillery and any attempt to cross the Hudson with heavy guns will be met with failure thanks to Burgoyne (cannons are heavy!).
Burgoyne was confident enough that he wouldn't need help, but just to be safe there would be a force by St Leger coming from the west with 300 regulars, 900 loyalists, and plenty of Indians (I don't know why American Indians trusted the British at all by 1770 seeing as colonists keep squatting on Indian lands and the British promised this wouldn't happen, but that's another story). He also said in his plan that while he probably didn't need to directly coordinate with Howe as long as Howe didn't take the army by sea. He would likely not face too much resistance, and take Albany. If the rebels outnumbered him significantly, he could buy time and send a messenger to Howe for help. If the rebels were so kind to mount heavy resistance instead of skirmishing, they would present the perfect target for Howe's army (3X Burgoyne's) and Burgoyne was confident he could retreat and buy enough time if that happened. Burgoyne said his plan was sound if Howe attacked the Hudson, gone to New York, or even a land offensive to New Jersey and Philadelphia. He did not say anything if Howe took the army to sea in his letter to London.
Please note Burgoyne had no intention of a physical junction of the two armies' main bodies. That would have defeated the whole purpose of the wilderness march. The quick and easy way to join forces would be by sea. Burgoyne planned be an autonomous command in the north. The bulk of his forces would hunker down while fast units of his would raid the rebel controlled areas, and seize any shipment on the Hudson. These light units might meet Howe's now and then if Howe stuck to New York and New Jersey, but the main bodies would not meet. The only contingency he expected for direct coordination with Howe was if the rebels decided to concentrate themselves to block Burgoyne, in which case Burgoyne hoped it would provide a good easy target for Howe's large but slow command to run down.
So Lord Germain saw both letters. There was a three week time period where both letters had came to him and he hadn't sent his replies yet. One plan said "attack by land... no sea!" and the other one said "This plan is sound if Howe attacks by land" and he approves both plans. Since Howe was supposed to leave first (by April, but yet in June they still haven't started...), he thought Howe could take Philadelphia, consolidate his gains, and get back to New York by the time Burgoyne took Ticonderoga. Henry Clinton was with Germain and pointed a few holes in his optimistic thinking, but respectfully deferred to his senior's judgment. Clinton would not find out Howe was attacking by sea until he got back to New York and met Howe. If he had learned of his chief's stupidity in Whitehall, he probably would have argued harder with Germain, who was more flexible than Howe.
I have no idea why Clinton tried so adamantly hard to argue Howe to switch to land when he arrived at New York since Clinton, Burgoyne, Cornwallis, Howe, Germain, and even the enemy Washington thought the worst case scenario for Burgoyne was to lose a field battle and be forced to retreat to Canada without his siege train, with morale plummeted. No one thought the Northern Army would be forced to surrender.
Well we know how this is going to turn out. Howe defeats Washington a few times in battle, but never crushes the rebels. St Leger failed entirely. Burgoyne not only failed, but had to surrender. France enters the war on the rebel side, dooming the loyalist cause. In real life, the Battle of Saratoga brought the French into the war, which made that battle decisive. Patriots win!
Alternate Timeline
What if the events of 1777 were different? Let’s suppose that General Howe decides to attack Philadelphia by land instead of sea in April. This means he brings water crossing equipment.
Three brigades which total 3,000 British troops detached from Howe lands in Charleston in July and takes it with no contest. However, now they are stuck being told they will receive supply but no reinforcement. So the British commander there decides to probe around the countryside for loyalists, but doesn’t dare attack a rebel fort or city.
Washington and Howe duke it out over New Jersey and maybe even Pennsylvania, with Howe winning many battles, but the rebel army keeps managing to slip through his fingers (just like in real life…)
St Ledger sieges Fort Sanwix just like in real life. On August 6th there is a battle at Oriskany which the rebels lose, just like in real life. The garrison sorties to loot the British camp while their allies are getting ambushed by the British and Indians, just like in real life. Unlike real life, the Loyalists in the camp inflict 70 kills and 10 wounded on the sortie and force them back, saving the camp. However, this victory is made less sweet when on August 22nd, the British give up on the fort and make their way to British lines.
In June, France makes preparation to go to war with Great Britain, but Louis XVI decides not to act because he's not convinced the iron is hot. The smuggling continues.
In September, France’s jingoistic advisors convince Louis XVI to declare war on GB and get revenge for the Seven Years War. George III shits his pants because most of Hannover’s troops were redeployed to fight the rebellion.
General Burgoyne mentions to Howe he is falling behind schedule and needs General Clinton and General Howe to rescue him. Clinton clears the Hudson river and Howe plods on too slow to help (he was always a slow one between battlefields… See Too Many Cooks British Planning before Saratoga). However, his presence in New Jersey prevented the rebels from brigning in militia from New Jersey to help Gates.
The murder of Jane McCrea never happens, which was a PR disaster for Burgoyne in real life.
On October 7th, General John Burgoyne is forced to give fight against the rebels. his cavalry successfully finds the rebel rifle sharpshooters and neutralizes ALL of them. Burgoygne wins, with his forces capturing 1/3 of the rebel artillery and spiking the rest (you spike cannons if you aren’t sure you can keep it). General Horatio Gates and 3,000 American troops are captured. The British suffered 320 casualties and inflicting 6,000 on the rebels (yes, lopsided fights like this can happen when one side charges and the defender forgets how to use bayonets). Tactician Benedict Arnold manages to set up a trap for the perusing British to cover his retreating allies and… Burgoyne doesn’t take the bait like Tarelton does in real life at Cowpens, advancing in battle instead of pursuit formation. Burgoyne reaches Albany, exhausted and spending too much time looking at their backs in case if the prisoners try to escape.
Back in Europe, France lunches an invasion of Cornwall which goes really horribly. 32,000 French troops land in Cornwall… only to realize the next week the siege train supposed to arrive on a different ship never came (it got sunk), so they can’t even destroy outdated medieval fortifications (cannons break them, muskets do not). In 3 battles of the English channel, the French lose 3/4 of their entire non galley fleet while only destroying some second rates, third rates, and frigates (Battle of Trafalgar was this lopsided in real life). The next month the food supply didn’t come to Cornwall because of the naval battles. Oops. By December the invasion force is forced to surrender without a pitched battle.
The British convince the Austrians to deploy 3,000 troops in Hanover, a kind of peacekeeping force. Austria declines to fight France unless Marie Antoinette is mistreated by the French or France attacks the electorate of Hanover. So the British still don’t have any continental allies.
Now let’s look at the balance of forces.
In Europe, France can eat the loss of 32,000 infantry and still be a threat. So British troops can’t be mobilized to fight the rebellion, despite defeating the French forces. They need to defend the economically rich Caribbean islands and England itself. Unless Austria, the Dutch, or Denmark join the British, those troops are pre commited once France enters the war, even if they just bagged an artillery siege baggage and 32K infantry with few losses.
In America, the 13 colonies can raise 130K colonial militia and 5–15K continental army. Colonial militia often ran from CQC or cavalry charges, but they can get potshots off before fleeing.
The British balance of forces, now that Burgoyne won, would be 34K British regulars, 10K Germans (some like the Hanoverians weren’t mercenaries by any means but fighting for their king too), some Indians and some loyalists. Now that France is in the war, reinforcements will not come, just like real life.
The loyalists were only marginally outnumbered by the patriots in the war, with a plurality of people being neither patriot or loyalist. However, threats of property confiscations quickly subdued most of the loyalist threat. In the real revolutionary war, most loyalists were afraid to provide overt support, even in the time between the capture of New York and loss at Saratoga (during this time period, the British look like they’re winning). So I doubt this “adjustment” will cause the Loyalists to come out and help George III overtly, at least not until they are reassured of their safety.
The British commander in Charleston is waiting for further developments. He tries to secure countryside but avoids rebel forts and cities.
General Burgoyne reached Albany. His plan wasn’t to join Howe (the quick way would be to do it by sea) but use Albany as a base (somehow… a fort and high ground doesn’t its mean good base and I never figured out how this was going to work). The plan was to have 3,000 troops split into 7 groups and ride horses going around the Hudson, trying to choke off New England, while returning to Albany to resupply periodically. All but 3 bridges will be destroyed and any attempt at crossing the river by ferry will be intercepted by a British unit. Pre-war New England is dependent on the rest of the colonies for sugar, alcohol, copper, glass, blister steel, and cannonballs. Coincidentally, 3/4 of the rebel artillery was in new England in 1777, most of the rest going to General Washington. Since New England is easier to blockade than an entire 13 colonies, this means the ammo cannot reach the artillery and any attempt to cross the Hudson with heavy guns will be met with failure thanks to Burgoyne (cannons are heavy!) His other survivors are hanging around in Albany, guarding 3K prisoners that almost number them. Burgoyne asks to ship some prisoners to New York.
In Real Life, Burgoyne suggested in his plan for the Saratoga/Albany campaign that once he succeeded, he would slowly choke off NE and Howe would be free to take the Pennsylvania and New Jersey countryside and be able to hold the land, making the loyalists feel safe. Howe would probably do that, or he might try to go chasing Washington again.
General Henry Clinton would be garrisoned in New York. With New England neutralized and Howe (his boss) securing his West, he feels safe despite having only 3 or so thousand regulars. He starts trying to restore administration.
With the French losing 3/4 of their non-Mediterranean navy in three battles, it seems like they are out of the war in Americas. No they are not. Smaller ships designed for smuggling supplied 90% of the rebel gunpowder at the beginning of the war and they will still do so even if their big ships were lost. Unless the British start attaching oars to their ships, the smuggling will continue. Thanks to terrain, they could probably tighten the noose around New England and possibly complete the blockade there, but the rest of the rebels will keep getting French gunpowder, uniforms, musketballs, and dried meats. Probably no French Expeditionary force in this timeline.
So the British have around 44K troops to face off 130K colonial militia and Washington’s Continental Army. On top of that, in real life many rebels just threw down their guns when a battle was lost and blended in with the civilians, so the British never know who is their enemy while any wannabe patriot knows he can get away scot-free, and this is likely to happen here too.
Thoughts to Readers
No, I’m not seeing the British win this one. What do you think? I agree the battle of Saratoga was important to bring the French in, but even if the British win in Charleston, Saratoga, and Cornwall in this timeline, the mere presence of the French keeps the British from putting this rebellion down. Let me know what you guys think probably will happen next. Louis XVI might have second thoughts about overt war, but the smuggling will continue and I don't think the loss of Albany would cause Congress to cave. What do you think Washington's next move will be? Howe's? London's (not send reinforcements)? What should happen next?