A detailed look at a London without mass immigration.

[WolfNeuron]

So let's say that ITTL London sees similar levels of immigration as Tokyo postwar, if slightly more. IOTL 36% of London is foreign born, compared to 4% of Tokyo. This London would still have small Jewish, Italian, Afro-Caribbean and Indian communities. However let's say that by 2020 immigrants only account for 5% of London's population.

What would the population of London ITTL? Would the housing crisis still exist to the same extent? Linguistically, would multicultural English still exist at all? Architecturally, would skyscrapers such as The Shard even be built? What would London food/LGBT culture look like?

Any thoughts/comments appreciated.

EDIT: TTL UK should have the same standard of living, such as a gdp per capita of $40,000 etc.

 

[overoceans]

Architecturally, would skyscrapers such as The Shard even be built?

Is the Shard regarded as having some specific connection with immigration? According to wiki, the developer, Irvine Sellar, was Jewish, but born in London in 1934, to parents who, if they weren't also British-born, had at least established themselves in business there at that early a date. The architect was apparently Italian, but even the Waspiest developer can see buildings in foreign countries, decide that he wants that in his city, and hire a foreign architect to build what he wants. St. Louis Missouri is hardly known for being a cosmopolitan fleshpot, but it once hosted the Pruit-Igoe housing project, built by an American but considered to epitomize the International Style perfected by European architects in the previous decades.

But I await any further info on this.

(EDIT: Corrected a capitalization error.)

 

[God-Eater of the Marshes]

Oh boy, the food scene would suck a lot.

 

[Simon Darkshade]

I think that the building of skyscrapers in the City of London and later the Docklands needs to be separated from the issue of immigration, as they aren't connected. There could be an argument made regarding a link between immigration and 'tower blocks', but that would be a tenuous one at best. The move towards that particular brutalist style building occurred before what could be characterised as 'mass immigration' in Britain.

Food history is an area I can comment on in more detail. If ~95% of the population of London remains White British, to use the census term, then we'd probably see rather more emphasis on traditional foodstuffs for longer, but it wouldn't mean that pie and mash and jellied eels would remain the mass provender forever and a day. Changes in the national palate would occur over time, driven by greater affluence and the general evolution of British food. You'd still see hamburgers and the like increase in popularity. There would be less Indian, Chinese and West Indian foods and food influences, but London's cuisine has always been a bit more cosmopolitan than the rest of England.

The population of London would likely decline over time, as the trend was heading pre-WW2. Inner London had been declining since 1911 and Outer London began to do so after the mid 1950s. With the expansion of the New Towns, the population would go down. Without immigration to fill the emptying areas of the East End, for example, we could see some different redevelopment and clearance of large areas.

To have this type of change occur, or not occur, then it would need a fairly early change that would be quite difficult to bring about.

 

[BELFAST]

Are English people born aboard like Joanna Lumley included in the foreign born numbers in London 2020?
I imagine there would be a labour a shortage in London so many more Irish, Scots,Welsh and people from the English regions moving to London.
London will have a small population. I do not think that it would have much affect on the housing shortage.
I think London would go in to decline compared to other major cities around the world.

 

[WolfNeuron]

is the Shard regarded as having some specific connection with immigration? According to wiki, the developer, Irvine Sellar, was Jewish, but born in London in 1934, to parents who, if they weren't also British-born, had at least established themselves in business there at that early a date. The architect was apparently Italian, but even the Waspiest developer can see buildings in foreign countries, decide that he wants that in his city, and hire a foreign architect to build what he wants. St. Louis Missouri is hardly known for being a cosmopolitan fleshpot, but it once hosted the Pruit-Igoe housing project, built by an American but considered to epitomize the International Style perfected by European architects in the previous decades.

But I await any further info on this.

Well I was more speaking economically. Would a London with 6.5 million people still have the economic position to build the Shard, as compared to OTL a London with 9 million people? Most likely, but smaller skyscrapers are very possible ITTL, and fewer of them.

 

[WolfNeuron]

Are English people born aboard like Joanna Lumley included in the foreign born numbers in London 2020.
I imagine there would be a labour a shortage in London so many more Irish, Scots,Welsh and people from the English regions moving to London.
London will have a small population. I do not think that it would have much affect on the housing shortage.
I think London would go in to decline compared to other major cities around the world.

I think London would still see growth, just much smaller growth. IOTL Tokyo continues to grow while the rest of Japan shrinks. But yeah, London would for sure see relative stagnation, and would be seen as much less of a global city to compete with New York or even Paris. And do you think ITTL there could be recruitment campaigns from the rest of the UK? It is possible we would see waves of northern english, scottish and welsh comparable to, although a lot smaller then, the waves of entry we see from central and eastern europe.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

It is possible we would see waves of northern english, scottish and welsh comparable to, although a lot smaller then, the waves of entry we see from central and eastern europe.

Housing costs in London would have to stay a lot closer to the national average for that to happen. What will get you a nice three bedroomed house in Newcastle will barely get you a bedsit in parts of London.

 

[WolfNeuron]

The population of London would likely decline over time, as the trend was heading pre-WW2. Inner London had been declining since 1911 and Outer London began to do so after the mid 1950s. With the expansion of the New Towns, the population would go down. Without immigration to fill the emptying areas of the East End, for example, we could see some different redevelopment and clearance of large areas.

This is actually an interesting point. However I do think London overall would grow in population since banking, insurance, media, marketing and a dozen other industries are all centred in London, and we would still get university graduates moving to London. In 1981 London had a population of 6.6 million, and by 2020 I would say this would be around 6-7 million, compared to 9 million today.

Speaking of the east end, what do you think would happen with gentrification? In a place such as Hackney, there were 180,000 people in 1981 and declining, compared to 250,000 today. With uni graduates and young professionals, still moving in the 21st century, is it fair to say gentrification would happen much faster with a 'indigenous' population of only 150,000 when gentrification begins?

 

[Not James Stockdale]

Oh boy, the food scene would suck a lot.

As an American who has lived in the UK, I have no clue why British people seem to think that the only food worth eating comes from kebab trucks and curry shops.

 

[bobby501]

Food history is an area I can comment on in more detail. If ~95% of the population of London remains White British, to use the census term, then we'd probably see rather more emphasis on traditional foodstuffs for longer, but it wouldn't mean that pie and mash and jellied eels would remain the mass provender forever and a day. Changes in the national palate would occur over time, driven by greater affluence and the general evolution of British food. You'd still see hamburgers and the like increase in popularity. There would be less Indian, Chinese and West Indian foods and food influences, but London's cuisine has always been a bit more cosmopolitan than the rest of England.

Much of this would have wider national implications. For example, would the chicken tikka masala (which I think Birmingham has more claim as its originator than London, but nonetheless) have ever been named as the UK's national dish?

 

[WolfNeuron]

As an American who has lived in the UK, I have no clue why British people seem to think that the only food worth eating comes from kebab trucks and curry shops.

I think english food is great for pubs or on a cold night, but is very focused on meat and gravy, simple but very tasty flavours. Adding in Italian, Greek, Turkish, Mexican, Indian and Chinese food definatley adds more flavours throughout the week.

 

[Simon Darkshade]

Given that the whole “chicken tikka masala is the national dish” was more of a soundbite by Robin Cook than a statement of fact supported by surveys and what not, we can quite safely say that there would be some level of difference, but not a complete absence. There is more to Britain than London, after all.

Now, if the immigration situation was extended to the whole of Britain somehow, then we definitely wouldn’t see it, with there being more of the Anglo-Indian curry dishes of the pre WW2 era instead.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Now, if the immigration situation was extended to the whole of Britain somehow, then we definitely wouldn’t see it, with there being more of the Anglo-Indian curry dishes of the pre WW2 era instead.

I can't see a situation where there is large scale immigration to the UK that doesn't include London getting its share. London has always been a magnet for immigrants, it's where the money is.

 

[SadSprinter]

I think it’ll also depend on why mass immigration didn’t come to London. I’d say the only way to avoid this would be to have the Tories win after WW2 or a massive change in labour leadership to stop commonwealth immigration.

 

[bobby501]

Given that the whole “chicken tikka masala is the national dish” was more of a soundbite by Robin Cook than a statement of fact supported by surveys and what not, we can quite safely say that there would be some level of difference, but not a complete absence. There is more to Britain than London, after all.

I'm almost sure that it actually happened in at least one such survey. Maybe it was more intended as a tribute to Robin Cook though.

 

[Paulo the Limey]

As an American who has lived in the UK, I have no clue why British people seem to think that the only food worth eating comes from kebab trucks and curry shops.

Can we lay off the inaccurate, lazy cultural stereotypes please?

Regarding the OP, WW2 would have to go very differently for this to happen, a lot of immigration was driven by the need for labour postwar. As for language, English has been stealing vocab for centuries, no reason for it to stop now.

 

[WolfNeuron]

Can we lay off the inaccurate, lazy cultural stereotypes please?
Regarding the OP, WW2 would have to go very differently for this to happen, a lot of immigration was driven by the need for labour postwar. As for language, English has been stealing vocab for centuries, no reason for it to stop now.

Well tbh this was more of a WI then AHC, and I fully recognise it's very difficult. I would like a similar way though. Personally I was imagining a parliament bill in the 1940s limiting immigration across all of the UK to no more than something less than 20,000 a year, probably a lot less. There would still be thousands of Indians and West Indians ITTL London.

 

[manav95]

If London doesn't see a wave of immigration from other parts of the world, then that means a UK with a very restrictive immigration policy and strong nationalism. I don't see very many Irish being allowed in either, due to fears of republican terrorism, or Poles/other Eastern Europeans for fear of corrupting the Anglo-Saxon spirit. Thus this ATL London would see a lot of immigration from Wales, Scotland, and Northern England, which would mean a chance at a new dialect of working class English arising. One that would be less rhotic. It'd be interesting if RP changes to become less or non rhotic along with more Gaelic/Welsh pronunciations too, as a way of uniting the country.

 

[manav95]

Well tbh this was more of a WI then AHC, and I fully recognise it's very difficult. I would like a similar way though. Personally I was imagining a parliament bill in the 1940s limiting immigration across all of the UK to no more than something less than 20,000 a year, probably a lot less. There would still be thousands of Indians and West Indians ITTL London.

We better see reggae and ska music still take off TTL.