A Destiny Realized: A Timeline of Afsharid Iran and Beyond

Without strong European presence (except Russia) in Asia comparing to OTL, it'll be probably more difficult for them assert their influence in the region. It seems Japan and China might get their early Meijis at this rate, that is if the Qing Court isn't distracted by domestic affairs, coupled with their isolationist policies. Still, it's much better than OTL.
 
Threadmarks.

Maybe an Early Meiji? The Qing however seem to still be pretty isolationist, but hopefully that will change. No opium war is good though.
Possibly an early Meiji, though the road that Japan eventually set upon was only one road of many. For the time being Sakoku stays in place for the most part, though a more difficult time opening China up may drive the British to look elsewhere.
Was a sigificant portion of the British forces in the Opium War Indian? I've always imagined the armies that smacked around the Qing to be mainly English Redcoats.
Over a third of the British forces that fought in the First Opium War were from the Indian Army, as were a significant chunk of those who fought in the Second Opium War. Troops from the Indian Army were also the first over the walls during the assault on Beijing in the Boxer Rebellion. In addition, the Opium that the British sold to the Chinese was grown in Bengal. India was important indeed in Britain's assaults on China in OTL's 19th century.
So China could end up being more isolationist than Japan when the White Devils come knocking, which would be quite the reversal of OTL. I'd imagine Russia would be verrry interested in snacking some easy glory in East Asia, but the last update has shown them being more interested in the Caucasus and Europe than China or Japan.
Russia's own priorities in OTL tended to shift depending on what avenue seemed to provide the most benefit and where the path of least resistance was. China's own armed forces might be a bit more effective than in OTL, as they aren't wracked by opium addiction, but they still aren't being exposed to the new military developments out of the West which will weaken them relatively as time goes on. I suppose that like many things, Russia's policy toward China depends greatly on what happens elsewhere.
The incentive will probably be creating an ally nation to keep Russia's Pacific ambitions in check.

While surprised, I am glad to see the Qing Emperor was able to successfully crackdown on the Opioid Crisis(and the irony isn't lost on me) and corruption without the interference of the British.
A friendly Japan, were she to become strong, could be as useful a check on the Russians as she was in OTL (when of course she sent the Russian fleet to the bottom of the sea in one of history's most decisive naval battles). What happens in this area depends on just how badly the Japanese want to keep their country closed.

The successful war against opium addiction will certainly save China a great amount of misery for the time being, but without the shock of the Opium War, she may be slow to wake up to the changing world around her. Considering how bad China's OTL 19th century went however, she'd be hard pressed to equal it.
Good to see East Asia being set on what seems like a better path than OTL--a stronger, more stable South Asia seems to have blunted European ambitions, though Russia seems to be unhurt by such happenings.
France and the Netherlands are the big losers relative to OTL so far, but Britain's position is weakened. Her corner of Java and the East Indies aren't a match for India, and she will have a hard time to build the empire that she did in OTL, though becoming the linchpin of world trade is still within her grasp if things go her way. Russia, as you pointed out, is in a more similar position to OTL in terms of her power and influence, and if she avoids the reactionary turn that she underwent under Nicholas I's rule, her path of development in the 19th century will likely be transformed.
Without strong European presence (except Russia) in Asia comparing to OTL, it'll be probably more difficult for them assert their influence in the region. It seems Japan and China might get their early Meijis at this rate, that is if the Qing Court isn't distracted by domestic affairs, coupled with their isolationist policies. Still, it's much better than OTL.
The Qing will still be challenged by the internal struggles that characterised the 19th century, but a less corrupt administration and a more stable financial situation may place them in good stead to weather the storm. Japan is still quite vulnerable though, being an island nation in seas that are increasingly visited by Europeans.
 
Africa - 1804 to 1831
i083.jpg


The Last of the Fulani Jihads - The Rise of Haji Seku Amadu

Perhaps as much as any ruler of the 19th Century, or indeed before then, Haji Seku Amadu deserves the title of “The Great” [1]. Little is known of his life prior to his Hajj at the age of 23, when he accompanied his father on the long journey to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. His father had died while the two were in Mecca in 1799, the year that the Saudis swept into both Mecca and Medina, expelling the Ottoman garrison and imposing their own puritanical vision of an Islamic state in the area. Originally, Amadu was inspired by, and took up arms in the armies of the Saudi Emir, but later joined the Ottoman army under Mehmet Celil Pasha. Amadu served in the Turkish army until the conclusion of the war with the Saudis, himself leading men in the final capture of Mecca. A comparison of his own autobiography with Turkish records suggest that he had embellished his exploits during his time in the army, but he nevertheless left Turkish service as a respected warrior, and seems to have arrived at the city of Ngazargamu with a small retinue of Turks and Arabs, as well as an newly-found disdain for the way that Islam was practiced in much of the Sahel region.


Amadu journeyed across the region before meeting and subsequently joining Usman Dan Fodio, whose religious orientation was broadly similar to his own, and who had begun the process of founding a new Islamic Empire based on reformist teachings in the Sahel. Successful as Dan Fodio’s early years of conquest had been, his Fulani Jihadist state was thrown into chaos following the defeat of his Fulani cavalry at the hands of the gunpowder-wielding troops of Kano at the Battle of Bakura. Dan Fodio was killed and Amadu was wounded, barely escaping. The Sultan of Kano followed up his victory by sacking Sokoto, scattering what remained of Dan Fodio’s followers and seizing a great number of captives to sell as slaves back in Kano. As had been the case a few decades previously, the attempted expansion of Fulani Jihadists had been foiled by the guns of Kano. Amadu retreated from the destruction of Sokoto with what few followers of Dan Fodio he could gather.


In Amadu, Kano would soon find that they had an exception enemy. He soon managed to gather the remnants of Dan Fodio’s followers, building a new town on the site of Old Sokoto and attempting to reconstitute the state that had been constructed by his friend and teacher. By 1813 he had attained enough power and prestige that he declared himself as the Emir of Sokoto. Like Dan Fodio, he attempted to impose a state based on what he considered to be true Islamic principles, but also showed a great deal of inspiration from what he had seen in the Middle East. Whether or not he had been inspired by the “Naderian” state system is still a matter of fierce debate, though this new Sokoto Empire certainly resembled Early Afsharid Iran in a number of respects. Tribal peoples were welded into a permanent, salaried army, and were supplemented by a force of musketeers drawn from settled peoples. This new army was paid for by a system of regulated taxes administered by a small but effective bureaucracy, many of whom had become literate during the Dan Fodio era.


Having reconstructed his army, Amadu swept west, avoiding the strong Sultanate of Kano and attacking weaker neighbours. By 1817 his armies had taken Timbuktu, the old centre of Islamic learning in the Sahel since the time of Mali. With the conquest of Segu in 1819, his empire was already one of the largest in West Africa, yet with Kano still looming strong to his east, Amadu considered the continued existence of the Sultanate to be unfinished business. In 1823, having consolidated his new empire around the Niger River, his armies swept east. The initial siege of Kano was a failure and his forces were beaten back, but an increasing number of Hausa Emirs, chafing at the tight control of Kano, defected to Amadu. In 1825, a Kano that was increasingly bereft of allies finally fell to Amadu’s forces, establishing Amadu as supreme in Hausaland and his Sokoto Empire as the greatest in West Africa since the time of the Songhai.


Similar to his contemporaries on the fringes of the Muslim World such as Diponegoro in Java, Amadu’s new state represented not only a sea change in the nature of state and government in the region, but also in religion. Like Dan Fodio, he had held that the Emirs of old had still held far too many pagan beliefs close to heart, and that this had led to evils such oppression, slave-raiding and unjust taxation. Perhaps based somewhat in the rules of the Wahhabis that he had experienced while fighting for the Saudis, Amadu imposed a strict system of Sharia law that was administered by Qadis. There seemed not to be an area of life that was left untouched by the Sokoto legal system, which even put controls on the grazing of pastoralists. By 1830 the Empire had become a well-ordered society of some 13 million souls, stretching from Lake Chad in the east to the town of Segu in the west. Word of Amadu’s exploits had even reached the courts of Turkey and Iran, both of whom were keen to cultivate relations with this vast new Islamic empire.


[1] – In OTL, Seku Amadu founded the Massina Empire based around the Upper Niger River, though different circumstances have lead him onto a significantly different path than in OTL. Because really, besides some kind of Sokoto Republic, what could be cooler than a mashed together Sokoto and Massina empire?

* * * * * *

zanzibar.11.jpg


Towards Modernity? State Consolidation in East Africa

Zanzibar’s rule of East Africa had by the early 19th century, gone beyond a mere hegemony. Although unlike the other Islamic Empires her foundation was trade more than tribalism, militarism or religion, the Sultan’s control solidified over the Swahili coast as Zanzibar’s economic and even cultural influence became paramount. Traditional trade links across the Indian Ocean were strengthened as the merchant navy grew, and new markets for Zanzibar’s goods were now to be found in Europe. And as Europe’s conflicts spilled over into the Indian Ocean, an enterprising Arab merchant based in Zanzibar took the opportunity to ship cloves back from a journey to the Dutch East Indies to plan in Zanzibar. His first clove plantation on the island of Pemba made him unimaginably rich, encouraging other merchants and nobles to follow his example, and by 1830 cloves and other spices now brought in more export income to Zanzibar than slaves did.


Changing economic balances ensured that fewer slaves left Zanzibar’s ports, and yet the flow of slaves from Africa’s interior to the Swahili coast only increased. This was largely due to the growth of the planation economy which increasingly began to thrive following the successful import of cloves. The slave population increased, but so too did the free population, both through manumission, immigration from the interior of Africa as well as natural population growth. In the first half of the 19th century, the Sultanate of Zanzibar’s population may have experienced one of the fastest spurts of population growth in the pre-modern world, almost tripling from 1800 to 1850, where her population stood at 2.8 million. Not all of Zanzibar’s economic and demographic growth was based on the slave economy, as many Arabs, enabled by increased shipping from ports in the Gulf and the Red Sea, left overpopulation on the peninsula to journey to their own equivalent of the “New World”. Zanzibar would ultimately prove to be a “melting pot” for these Arabs as far as tribal allegiances were concerned, with many perceiving their ethnic identity as a more important distinguishing factors so far away from their homes.


Tensions existed in Zanzibar between the Arabs, who held a disproportionate amount of power, as well as the old Swahili families generally increased during this period. The Swahili of the coast as well as the islands not only resented the privileged position of the Arabs in Zanzibar, but also had to content with an influx of both free and unfree labour which drove down wages. The more influential Swahili families were able to leverage this to join the emerging plantation economy, more than making up for their lost political power with increased wealth. These families often ran their estates collectively as large concerns, even sending family members abroad to places such as Basra, Dhaka and even Liverpool to ensure that their business concerns were run smoothly. As the famous British adventurer Richard Brooke remarked somewhat inaccurately during a visit to Zanzibar in 1828, “The Sultan deposed the traditionally dominant Africans following his exile at the hands of Nader Shah, relegating them to a secondary status. Their mercantile talent however will soon see the Sultan dependent on their wealth should the present situation continue” [2].


While Zanzibar seemed to be making the first steps toward the foundation of a more centralised and economically advanced state, the unification of Somali rulers to the north appeared to be following a similar path. This initial impression is somewhat deceiving however, as Yusuf Mahamud Ibrahim launched wars against other Somali rulers to extract tribute, tying them only weakly to Mogadishu. What Ibrahim was interested in first and foremost was slavery and the money to be made from the trade. A decline in the number of slaves exported from Zanzibar left an unsatisfied demand that Somali slavers were soon quick to exploit. Ibrahim felt that if they could avoid internal feuding, that he and the other Somali rulers could more easily make inroads into Ethiopia to exploit the well of manpower there. Tigray was gradually brought under the sway of Ibrahim, and the Ethiopian kingdom of Shewa was smashed by Somali forces armed with imported flintlocks at the Battle of Galafi. Ibrahim had not only brought most of the other Somali rulers under his banner, but he had ensured that there would be little organized resistance to Somali slavers in the interior of the Horn of Africa.


This would prove to be the high tide of Somali expansion into Ethiopia however, as the fourteen year old Prince Yohannes, a capable and intelligent young man, rose to the throne of Gondar in 1823. It would take time for him to fully establish himself on the throne ant to assert himself against the powerful church and nobility of his kingdom, but by 1827 he had begun to embark on a series of centralising reforms that, far more so than his Somali counterparts, embraced the “Naderian” model that had become popular among Islamic countries, as well as European ideas of statecraft and governance. Although initially unpopular both the King as well as his reforms gained momentum after an attempted Somali reconnaissance in force into his kingdom was decisively defeated, despite the lack of gunpowder arms amongst the Ethiopian soldiery. Not for nothing would Yohannes later claim that this was the beginning of Ethiopia’s “Renaissance”, a turning point in the fortunes of the previously beleaguered country.


[2] – Yes, this Richard is a lazy knock-off alternate timeline cousin of James Brooke. And yes, we will be seeing more of him later.

* * * * * *

Author's Notes - We finally see some really interesting things happening in West Africa in particular. The shockwaves of Nader's Islamic Fiscal-military state have hit the Sahel in full force, allowing the founder of OTL's Massina Empire to create a much larger state, and perhaps one a bit less literal in its adherence to traditional Islamic law.

In East Africa, Zanzibar's influence grows as it moves from a slave-exporting state to one focused on a plantation economy. Although slavery is still key for her economically, the increasing importance of free labour will have interesting effects further down the line, as will the increasing heterogeneity of Zanzibari Society. Slightly further north it seems that Ethiopia's low water tide has been reached, and the fightback against the encroachment of Islamic peoples has begun. Interesting things will take place there for sure.
 
Similar to his contemporaries on the fringes of the Muslim World such as Diponegoro in Java, Amadu’s new state represented not only a sea change in the nature of state and government in the region, but also in religion. Like Dan Fodio, he had held that the Emirs of old had still held far too many pagan beliefs close to heart, and that this had led to evils such oppression, slave-raiding and unjust taxation. Perhaps based somewhat in the rules of the Wahhabis that he had experienced while fighting for the Saudis, Amadu imposed a strict system of Sharia law that was administered by Qadis. There seemed not to be an area of life that was left untouched by the Sokoto legal system, which even put controls on the grazing of pastoralists. By 1830 the Empire had become a well-ordered society of some 13 million souls, stretching from Lake Chad in the east to the town of Segu in the west. Word of Amadu’s exploits had even reached the courts of Turkey and Iran, both of whom were keen to cultivate relations with this vast new Islamic empire.

As great as this develop is for West Africa, I am fretting that it will start to falter and collapse after his passing, as with most other attempts in the past.

Zanzibar’s rule of East Africa had by the early 19th century, gone beyond a mere hegemony. Although unlike the other Islamic Empires her foundation was trade more than tribalism, militarism or religion, the Sultan’s control solidified over the Swahili coast as Zanzibar’s economic and even cultural influence became paramount. Traditional trade links across the Indian Ocean were strengthened as the merchant navy grew, and new markets for Zanzibar’s goods were now to be found in Europe.
Tensions existed in Zanzibar between the Arabs, who held a disproportionate amount of power, as well as the old Swahili families generally increased during this period. The Swahili of the coast as well as the islands not only resented the privileged position of the Arabs in Zanzibar, but also had to content with an influx of both free and unfree labour which drove down wages. The more influential Swahili families were able to leverage this to join the emerging plantation economy, more than making up for their lost political power with increased wealth. These families often ran their estates collectively as large concerns, even sending family members abroad to places such as Basra, Dhaka and even Liverpool to ensure that their business concerns were run smoothly.

This rivalry between the Arabs and the native Swahili families is definitely gonna boil over at some point in the future.
 
I'd love a map of the world in 1830, especially since the Sokoto Empire is a potential great power (13 million in 1830? Darn!). Also, I seriously hope that at least 2-5 decent sized (10-100 million people) African nations become modern like Europe by the modern day.

Edit: WHY DO SO MANY PEOPLE LIKE THIS?!!!
 
Last edited:
[1] – In OTL, Seku Amadu founded the Massina Empire based around the Upper Niger River, though different circumstances have lead him onto a significantly different path than in OTL. Because really, besides some kind of Sokoto Republic, what could be cooler than a mashed together Sokoto and Massina empire?

Oh, I wonder how many will get that reference. Tee hee~ :closedeyesmile:

On a more serious note, looks like there is a new African great power rising from the Sahel. I wonder if, in the near future when colonialism gets going across the continent, Sokoto and Ethiopia see themselves as fellow free empires. Probably not, but it does get the gears turning on continental diplomacy.

Also, a combined Sokoto and Massina stretching all the way to Segu? *looks at my own timeline with ideas...*
 
On a more serious note, looks like there is a new African great power rising from the Sahel. I wonder if, in the near future when colonialism gets going across the continent, Sokoto and Ethiopia see themselves as fellow free empires. Probably not, but it does get the gears turning on continental diplomacy.

The western powers will probably be in a contest of "Who's the best boot licker" in trying to swing the Sokoto Empire to their sphere.
 
As great as this develop is for West Africa, I am fretting that it will start to falter and collapse after his passing, as with most other attempts in the past.

This rivalry between the Arabs and the native Swahili families is definitely gonna boil over at some point in the future.
The huge size of the Empire will make it rather difficult to keep it together. I suppose the question is whether Seku Amadu can bind the empire around a common Islamic identity. If Europeans begin to encroach on West Africa as they did in OTL, this approach may find success but it is still quite some time before this is a possibility, and the empire may well fall apart before this happens. I suppose the question is whether it can survive the death of its charismatic founder.

Ultimately Zanzibar will have to find some accomodation, lest things end up as they did in OTL with the massacres of the Arabs and Indians following decolonization. I think the decisive factor will be what happens to the masses of non-Swahili Africans who are immigrating to the coastal regions.
I'd love a map of the world in 1830, especially since the Sokoto Empire is a potential great power (13 million in 1830? Darn!). Also, I seriously hope that at least 2-5 decent sized (10-100 million people) African nations become modern like Europe by the modern day.

Edit: WHY DO SO MANY PEOPLE LIKE THIS?!!!
A map will be coming up soon (and it's a pretty good one in my own humble opinion. It'll be using a different colour scheme).

13 million sounds very impressive but the Sokoto Empire of OTL was actually fairly populated. Islamic West Africa was one of the more populated regions of the world, especially around Hausaland. The Sokoto Empire of OTL was almost certainly far more populous than Qajar Iran for example.
Oh, I wonder how many will get that reference. Tee hee~ :closedeyesmile:

On a more serious note, looks like there is a new African great power rising from the Sahel. I wonder if, in the near future when colonialism gets going across the continent, Sokoto and Ethiopia see themselves as fellow free empires. Probably not, but it does get the gears turning on continental diplomacy.

Also, a combined Sokoto and Massina stretching all the way to Segu? *looks at my own timeline with ideas...*
Well, one does not write about 19th century West Africa and not reference Malê Rising. It should be a rule of the website by this point.

For the time being, Ethiopia is making a heavier emphasis on its Christian nature, in response to the increased vigour of Somalis and to a lesser extent, Oromo peoples besetting it. I suppose what course ideology takes in the 19th century will be crucial for how both countries see their place in the world. A Europe that moves down the path of racialism as it did in OTL may well alienate Ethiopia, but considering that Europe is entering the 19th century with less of an advantage over the rest of the world, these ideas may not emerge in the same way. It's actually something I've been giving a lot of thought of in the future, especially seeing as how Europe is far less likely to dominate the world politically as she did in our own world.
The western powers will probably be in a contest of "Who's the best boot licker" in trying to swing the Sokoto Empire to their sphere.
For the time being, Islamic West Africa remains solidly outside the European sphere of influence with the exception of the formerly French town of Dakar (now in British hands). Later on this timeline, a Sokoto Empire that manages to stay together may be the great prize in some kind of West African great game, but it is still a bit too early to tell at this point.
 
Europe Divided - Europe Part Two, 1817 to 1823
street-fighting-on-rue-soufflot-paris-june-25-1848(1).jpg


The Second French Revolution and its Spread

The French Revolution of 1799 to 1804 had certainly shaken the old order not only in France, but throughout Europe. Although Enlightenment ideas had gradually seeped into government over the 18th century, having a liberalising effect on the old regimes of Europe, the French Revolutionaries had put some of the most extreme ideas into practice, declaring a Republic and enacting violently anti-feudal and anti-clerical policies. This had certainly put a halt on enthusiasm for ideas such as constitutionalism, which was now seen as a dangerous encouragement rather than a sign of modernity. Even the relatively forward-looking Leopold of Austria put a halt on further liberalising reforms in his vast domains, preferring instead to focus on the integration of his German territories. Perhaps more important than the effect on Europe’s rulers was its effect on their heirs, who saw the future viability of their thrones as threatened by the idea of revolution. If the diplomatic centre of the European Continent could be vulnerable to a burst of revolutionary violence, might the same be true of their own countries?


The restored Bourbons themselves were certainly opposed to the idea of any kind of compromise with Revolutionary ideals. Charles X was the original “Reactionary” monarch, not only looking to halt the spread of Revolution but to try and turn the clock back as far as possible [1]. Aristocratic land which had been seized and redistributed during the revolution was returned to its owners or their nearest relatives. The Church was restored to a privileged position in society, taking responsibility for much of the educational system in France. Charles also attempted to bolster the international position of France by focusing on her colonies. Fearful of the revolution taking place in British North America, Charles encouraged emigration from areas of the country which were more solidly loyalist such as the Vendee, aiming to create a loyal, royalist base in North America which could be relied upon in future crises. Beyond these measures, he attempted to build closer relations with other European monarchs. Rather than attempting to impose French hegemony as had been the case for much of the 18th century, France’s foreign policy was now aimed at ensuring cooperation against a common threat, namely that of revolutionaries.


This met with only limited success. The restored Bourbons remained distrusted by their old Hapsburg rivals, who remained fearful of French ambitions following a series of French Army reforms begun in 1807. The Russians remained more interested with their own territorial aggrandisement, which left only the British and the Spanish invested in this monarchical pact against further outbreaks of Revolution. This would not be enough when the floodgates finally opened in 1818, just 15 years after the defeat of the first Revolution.


After the thorough defeat of 1803, it was thought that the French Radicals had been defeated as a force at least for a generation. A combination of Charles X’s reactionary policies, of continued economic disruption arising from famine and an influx of British exports, as well as continued agitation from Revolutionaries who still existed in France led to an uprising in Paris that the King’s army refused to march against [2]. Insurrection quickly spread and by the end of the year, even traditionally loyalist areas were occupied by revolutionary forces. The King had fled to London and a National Assembly was convened once again in Paris. This time, the Revolutionaries were aware that decisive leadership was needed to defeat the incoming reaction, appointed the stern but capable General François Kellerman as “Supreme Commander” of the French army. Domestically, France would be governed by a single Consul who would be elected for a term of two years by members of the National Assembly, which retained legislative power as the President held executive power. This political system was designed to be far more responsive than that of the First French Republic while still providing checks and balances on the leader.


For all of this supposed concern for constitutionalism however, the new French Republic was undoubtedly a more authoritarian construct than its predecessor had been. Although the political purges killed fewer than those under the First French Republic, they tended to be more targeted, directed especially at provincial power-brokers who had proved instrumental in supporting Royalist resistance under the First Republic. Just one year after the declaration of the Second French Republic, roughly 10,000 had been executed, and 90% of these were in departments outside of Paris. This “Reign of Terror” was as effective as it was brutal, and by 1819 the control of the Republic over the European territory of France was unquestioned. This was to be of crucial importance in the years to come, as by 1819 her neighbours were beginning to assemble in another anti-Republican coalition against her. This time however, both Kellerman and the President had prioritised the construction of an effective military, one that took into account some of the lessons of the American Revolution. A number of French Revolutionaries had fought in the war, and had formulated a set of tactics that would best suit a large, ill-trained army of conscripts.


When Spanish and Austrian troops first entered France in the June of 1819, the first French armies reeled under the attacks of the well-drilled troops of both powers. As the British enacted a naval blockade of France and began to dispatch troops to seize the isolated territories of France abroad, prospects did not look good for the Second French Republic, despite its newfound internal unity. In June 1819 she could muster around 280,000 soldiers to 300,000 Austrian and 100,000 Spanish. However, the invasion of the country by the monarchical powers rallied the French around the new regime, which now found it easier to retain conscripts fired up by patriotic fervour. By the time that the Austrians captured the fortress city of Metz, the French army numbered some 350,000. By the beginning of the campaign season of 1820, the French army now outnumbered those of the allies at some 500,000.


1820 was to be the decisive year of the revolution, not simply for the enlargement of the French army but also for the revolutions that took place in other parts of Europe. In May 1820, the Dutch Stadtholder found himself fleeing a French-inspired revolution, which declared a “purified” Dutch republic along the principles of those in France. In order to prevent their new potential ally from being suffocated in its cradle, the French dispatched the newly created Armée de Flandre under General Davout to support their new ally. This force of 120,000 smashed through Austria’s allies in the Low Countries and in the space of two months had fought its way to the Dutch Republic. Tens of thousands of Austrians were taken prisoner and there were thousands more deserters. The “Flanders Campaign” is known as the first campaign of modern warfare for good reason, as an effectively-led French force moved quickly to ensure a decisive victory. French armies later did the same in Piedmont when supporting the regime of the newly-returned Republican Dictator Napoleone di Buonaparte whose own revolution was threatened by Austrian Forces [3].


This pattern of success was not repeated outside Europe however. British forces made the most of France’s naval weakness to seize her colonies and those of her allies. The biggest gain for the British was the rich Dutch colonies of the East Indies, which were seized alongside a native Javanese prince. The only reversal of the British was in Saint Domingue, where another Slave Rebellion had broken out. By 1821, the French had recognised the independence of the new nation of Haiti, led by Joseph Rouzier, an ex-slave who attempted to reconcile both white plantation owners and settlers of Haiti with the black and mulatto majority of the country. Although it would be some years before the British and Spanish reconciled themselves to the independence of Haiti and its seizure of the Spanish colony of Santo Domingo, their inability to defeat Haitian forces and the seeming moderation of Rouzier regarding the white population of the country contributed to their recognition of the country’s independence in 1825.


By 1822, the situation for the anti-Revolutionary coalition had become grim. Despite British subsidies, Austria was on the verge of financial collapse and the Spanish situation was not much better. The French and Dutch had secured the whole of the Low Countries and Revolutionary armies were making their way across North Italy. The Austrian Emperor Karl formally requested a peace with the French revolutionaries in the July of 1822, accepting the loss of both the Low Countries as well as much of Northern Italy to the French and their allies. Without the Austrians, there was little that either the British or Spanish could do to hold back the French, and by the autumn, had both signed treaties with the French. For the moment it seemed, the Revolution was triumphant. Outside Europe however, things were more complicated. After both the Americans and British had seized various territories in New France, the territory was created a Kingdom under the younger brother of the French Dauphin, Philippe. And the old Dutch colonies in West Africa, the Cape of Good Hope and the East Indies were all seized by Great Britain alongside the French islands of the Indian Ocean, leaving her as the unquestioned colonial power in Asia.


The war may have been over, but nothing was truly settled. The French had created their own “Revolutionary Sphere” in Europe, but had lost all of their own colonies, as well as those of their allies. This would make trade with countries deep into Asia far more difficult, heralding a future of economic disruption. As the post-war order settled, countries with large colonial empires such as Spain, Portugal and even the United Kingdom closed off their colonies to trade with “Jacobin Nations”, hoping that an asphyxiation of trade would do what their armies and navies could not. And in the east, the two monarchical empires of Austria and Russia began to improve their relations, with the rulers of both keen to keep their thrones in the face of republican agitation both within their own countries and without. Unlike the first French Republic, the Second had brought itself some breathing space, but in the long run its future still appeared to be uncertain in a Europe that was hostile to them. As the Duke of Brandenburg Friedrich Wilhelm described it, “There now exists two separate Europes, as divided as Christendom was during the time of the Thirty Years War. On one side is the Europe of old, of kings, dukes and emperors, and on the other a Europe of untested, wild ideas and an unknown future”.


[1] – One of the last rulers we will see who is the same man as an OTL ruler. Louis the Fat has not made it to this point in TTL, and instead we see his brother Charles come to the throne.

[2] – The famine at least can be blamed on the Tambora eruption and the resulting year without summer. Indonesia really does have a global reach.

[3] – Because I really, really can’t resist shoehorning Napoleon in somewhere. Born as a Piedmontese subject rather than a French one, he has lived a different if strangely parallel life.

* * * * * *

Author's Notes - I'd originally intended to have two updates on Europe for this cycle, but ultimately it'll have to be three due to the sheer amount that's going on. I would have liked to go more into the changed social and cultural fabric of Europe, which will probably be the next cycle by this point. This revolution is based not only in France's cities, but to an increasing extent the countryside as the suffering peasants have made common cause with urban revolutionaries who are increasingly challenged economically by Great Britain. Unlike the first one, it has successfully spread to neighbouring countries, and is now resulting in a cold war between the old guard and this new wave of revolutionary countries. Needless to say that this replacement of the Congress System of OTL's early 19th century Europe will transform not only Europe but the rest of the world.
 
Oh, have Brandenburg ally with the Republicans in an anti-Austrian alliance! I imagine there’s still some enmity over the sundering of Prussian lands from them, and Revolutionary armies have already shown they can punch through to a threatened ally. Well, unless France is unwilling to work with a monarchy, in which case it can’t be helped.
 
I can see the United States and new French Republic becoming trading partners. I also see France supporting independence movements in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Lets not forget good old fashioned smuggling also.
 
Threadmarks.

I hope that Brandenburg can regain some of its territory, because after the humiliation of the seven years war, I imagine there is quite a bit of revanchism in the shrunken Duchy.

Also, Sardinian Napoleon? I wonder how that played out. Maybe we can still see him smash through Italy, or he'll just join up with the French and could be similar to OTL, albeit much later. And Latin America ITTL I feel is going to be a much better place.
 
Oh, have Brandenburg ally with the Republicans in an anti-Austrian alliance! I imagine there’s still some enmity over the sundering of Prussian lands from them, and Revolutionary armies have already shown they can punch through to a threatened ally. Well, unless France is unwilling to work with a monarchy, in which case it can’t be helped.
It depends how much of a slimy individual that Friedrich Wilhelm turns out to be. A split in Europe could be the perfect opportunity for a Napoleon III type to act as a liberal monarch while advancing the cause of conservatives. Brandenburg also has to cope with the fact that she's a small fish in a big pond, but she isn't exactly the smallest fish of all.
I can see the United States and new French Republic becoming trading partners. I also see France supporting independence movements in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Lets not forget good old fashioned smuggling also.
As the war is over and there is no longer a British blockade, the United States and France could very easily become trading partners, if not some kind of allies. Without power abroad to strike at her opponents, independence movements as well as native governments may well be the instrument France uses in the future to fight her Spanish and British opponents.
Threadmarks.

I hope that Brandenburg can regain some of its territory, because after the humiliation of the seven years war, I imagine there is quite a bit of revanchism in the shrunken Duchy.

Also, Sardinian Napoleon? I wonder how that played out. Maybe we can still see him smash through Italy, or he'll just join up with the French and could be similar to OTL, albeit much later. And Latin America ITTL I feel is going to be a much better place.
I'm beginning to think that writing something in the threadmark label when posting actually doesn't do anything unfortunately...

There is revanchism, in Brandenburg, not so much among its people (there are still folk-memories of just how bad the Seven Years War was for the average peasant) but certainly among some of the nobility who remember the glory days of "Jung Fritz König". Austria is much more firmly established in Germany however, containing much of the Duchy of Bavaria. The ship may well have sailed for Brandenburg to gain mastery of Germany, however there are times when outside factors can disrupt the expected outcome of things.

Alt-Napoleon by this point is 61 years old. Not being exiled to St Helena means his health is better, yet the Napoleon of our timeline suffered from health issues from the 1810s onward. Napoleon may not well live long enough to unite Italy, but his North Italian Republic will certainly be among the most powerful of Europe's middle-weight powers. It could be better poised than the Sardinia of OTL to unify Italy...
Can't wait for the map.
I'll post it alongside the next update, which will most probably be this weekend.
 
The war may have been over, but nothing was truly settled. The French had created their own “Revolutionary Sphere” in Europe, but had lost all of their own colonies, as well as those of their allies. This would make trade with countries deep into Asia far more difficult, heralding a future of economic disruption. As the post-war order settled, countries with large colonial empires such as Spain, Portugal and even the United Kingdom closed off their colonies to trade with “Jacobin Nations”, hoping that an asphyxiation of trade would do what their armies and navies could not. And in the east, the two monarchical empires of Austria and Russia began to improve their relations, with the rulers of both keen to keep their thrones in the face of republican agitation both within their own countries and without. Unlike the first French Republic, the Second had brought itself some breathing space, but in the long run its future still appeared to be uncertain in a Europe that was hostile to them. As the Duke of Brandenburg Friedrich Wilhelm described it, “There now exists two separate Europes, as divided as Christendom was during the time of the Thirty Years War. On one side is the Europe of old, of kings, dukes and emperors, and on the other a Europe of untested, wild ideas and an unknown future”.

If there is going to be any comparisons to the OTL cold war, that would be emphasis on investments in technology and science for the arms race. Which has got me excited for earlier discoveries and implementations of them in regular life.^^
 
I can see the United States and new French Republic becoming trading partners. I also see France supporting independence movements in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Lets not forget good old fashioned smuggling also.

Definitely a Gothic Cold War.
This has got me hoping for an ATL Sherlock Holmes being a British Secret Agent
 
Did the US get OTL Northwest territories, and did Louisiana go to the Brits? Or did all of New France become a Kingdom?
 
Top