A Destiny Realized: A Timeline of Afsharid Iran and Beyond

Maybe there was some smuggling from French, Spanish colonies to the rebels with or without government approval. The new US may focus more on military defense and industrialization/trade in preparation for a second conflict.
 
Well if America is stronger, I suspect that they will expand more into Canada (maybe annex Nova Scotia and Quebec before Quebec is all French-speakers like IOTL) and into Mexico (screw Baja California, I expect them to take a lot more than that!). Maybe they will create an empire like in HOI4 Apre Moi Le Deluge, with them occupying Nigeria, Namibia, Liberia, Ghana, and Cameroon!

Seems a bit wankish if you ask me
 
America today is wankish. That is, if someone in another timeline likely saw our timeline. Seriously, our GDP is way ahead of 2nd place, our population is large, and we are the best in many things.
Not to mention being practically invulnerable due to being an ocean away from any major threats and being allied with our neighbors. It's like if Britain was the size of Russia but was still wealthy.
 
Yeah, but I don’t think they’ll want Quebec because of the larger French population ITTL.

Oh, I dunno. The St. Lawrence River would be pretty great for sending settlers to the Great Lakes region. If they don’t want Catholics in Congress, the solution is to simply make it a Cuba-style puppet state.
 
There really is nothing like an American update to generate a lot of interest. There's a lot of replies, so I'll try my best to address general points people have made without replying to each post individually.

So in regards to America, it is worth keeping in mind that the revolution happened over a generation after our own, and rather than being the first of the big enlightenment revolutions, has come after TTL's French Revolution, not to mention an abortive Haitian Revolution, which has led to different ideological influences. In the North, this has led to stronger abolitionism and a lesser desire to compromise for the sake of national unity, which wasn't exactly a big concept for much of the American Revolution in OTL. Territorial security is less of a given, as there is still a large New France, which while still not being that densely populated numbers not too far from 500,000 white settlers by 1820. Unlike in OTL, the path of independence was much more of a security gamble, which is one reason why it took so long for it to happen.

As for the future, France is unlikely to side with the US. After all, the Bourbons owe their position in part due to British efforts, and relations are significantly warmer than in OTL, at least for the time being. America had enough of an armaments industry by 1800 ITTL to secure her independence, and seeing as how this US still maintains most of the prime industrial areas, she is likely to be able to defend herself. More important will be relations with Britain. If British capital is not made available to speed American industrialisation along, things are going to look very different later on.

Ultimately, although America is stronger in the sense that she won her independence more or less without foreign aid, her future does not look as bright as it did on independence in OTL. Aside from not possessing the southern states, there are many more Europeans outside her borders in North America to contend with, though the numbers of French settlers around the Mississippi is still fairly low. Without the threat from the British however, the French may be less willing to part with their territories abroad for money, so a
 
So in regards to America, it is worth keeping in mind that the revolution happened over a generation after our own, and rather than being the first of the big enlightenment revolutions, has come after TTL's French Revolution, not to mention an abortive Haitian Revolution, which has led to different ideological influences. In the North, this has led to stronger abolitionism and a lesser desire to compromise for the sake of national unity

Good.

As for the future, France is unlikely to side with the US. After all, the Bourbons owe their position in part due to British efforts, and relations are significantly warmer than in OTL, at least for the time being. America had enough of an armaments industry by 1800 ITTL to secure her independence, and seeing as how this US still maintains most of the prime industrial areas, she is likely to be able to defend herself. More important will be relations with Britain. If British capital is not made available to speed American industrialisation along, things are going to look very different later on.
Didn't they obtain the OTL Ohio area for OTL?
 
There really is nothing like an American update to generate a lot of interest. There's a lot of replies, so I'll try my best to address general points people have made without replying to each post individually.

So in regards to America, it is worth keeping in mind that the revolution happened over a generation after our own, and rather than being the first of the big enlightenment revolutions, has come after TTL's French Revolution, not to mention an abortive Haitian Revolution, which has led to different ideological influences. In the North, this has led to stronger abolitionism and a lesser desire to compromise for the sake of national unity, which wasn't exactly a big concept for much of the American Revolution in OTL. Territorial security is less of a given, as there is still a large New France, which while still not being that densely populated numbers not too far from 500,000 white settlers by 1820. Unlike in OTL, the path of independence was much more of a security gamble, which is one reason why it took so long for it to happen.

As for the future, France is unlikely to side with the US. After all, the Bourbons owe their position in part due to British efforts, and relations are significantly warmer than in OTL, at least for the time being. America had enough of an armaments industry by 1800 ITTL to secure her independence, and seeing as how this US still maintains most of the prime industrial areas, she is likely to be able to defend herself. More important will be relations with Britain. If British capital is not made available to speed American industrialisation along, things are going to look very different later on.

Ultimately, although America is stronger in the sense that she won her independence more or less without foreign aid, her future does not look as bright as it did on independence in OTL. Aside from not possessing the southern states, there are many more Europeans outside her borders in North America to contend with, though the numbers of French settlers around the Mississippi is still fairly low. Without the threat from the British however, the French may be less willing to part with their territories abroad for money, so a

How restless is New France, and would the US be interested in an alliance or are they hoping to be left alone?

Edit: And because it’s been on my mind, I might as well ask. How does Iran view the term Shahanshah? Would one of their Shahs crowning themselves as such be seen as emulating a non-Islamic past, self-aggrandizement, blasphemy, or some combination of those? I would imagine Nader Shah at least would consider calling himself such after all his accomplishments unless there was good reason not to.
 
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Does TTL USA have Virginia and the Chesapeake colonies?
Virginia ultimately ended up in British hands following the war, as well as Delaware and Maryland. Property Rights above all is a hell of a drug apparently.
Good.

Didn't they obtain the OTL Ohio area for OTL?
Ohio is officially in the hands of the French but realistically, there are more natives than Frenchmen in the region for the time being.
How restless is New France, and would the US be interested in an alliance or are they hoping to be left alone?

Edit: And because it’s been on my mind, I might as well ask. How does Iran view the term Shahanshah? Would one of their Shahs crowning themselves as such be seen as emulating a non-Islamic past, self-aggrandizement, blasphemy, or some combination of those? I would imagine Nader Shah at least would consider calling himself such after all his accomplishments unless there was good reason not to.
New France is reasonably content for the time being, but its population of smallholding farmers without the feudal ties of Metropolitan France are sceptical of revolutionary ideas. More so than Americans, the Canadiens are Conservatives.

Nader's title in OTL, as was that of many Islamic rulers of Iran, was Shahanshah. A particularly relevant title when one considers just how many Khans were subordinate to the Shah.
What is America’s population?
At the point of 1830, around some six million. Not particularly impressive by European standards, but this still represents the largest population of any state within North America.
 
East Asia - 1804 to 1831
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Toward the Twilight of Sakoku - Challenges to Japan's Isolation in the Early 19th Century
For almost two centuries, the Japanese had fiercely enforced their policy of Sakoku, which prevented Japanese from leaving the island nation, and restricted foreigners only to a small island off the coast of Nagasaki. This policy of isolation had only been strengthened as Japan’s prosperity reached new heights in the 17th and 18th centuries, ensuring that internal markets diversified to the extent that demand for foreign goods had plummeted. Restrictive though Sakoku was, there was surprisingly little demand for Western goods within Japan, and the Rangaku or Dutch Learning was still easily available through contacts at Deshima. Isolation did not stop the Japanese from keeping relatively up to date with political events outside of their own country as well as scientific advancements. Indeed, those few Europeans who entered Japan before Sakoku formally ended were surprised to find out how well-informed the Japanese intelligentsia were about the world outside of their own country.


One area in which the border had proved to be more ill-defined was to the north of Japan, where Japanese and Russian traders and explorers clashed. These contacts may have led to something greater, were it not for the different priorities of both the Bakufu and the Russian governments. Ultimately the isolation of the Northern islands of Ezo, Sakhalin and the Kuriles made sure these contacts would not from become anything more than historical curiosities. Far more serious was the fear of Chinese incursions which the Japanese considered a possibility following their victories in Central Asia as well as their reported victory against the far-away Persians in the West (the fact that the war with Persia had been a stalemate was not reported as there were no Persian contact with Japan). The one consistent contact held with westerners was with the Dutch trade station at Deshima, which by the early 19th century functioned more as a conduit for information on the outside world than an actual trade post. The system which focused around this was thrown into chaos in 1822, when the Dutch lost all of their colonies to the British, which technically included the rights to trade in Deshima.


What this peace had not included was the consent of the Japanese, who were disconcerted to find British ships approaching Deshima in 1823 rather than those of the Dutch. The Japanese were aware of the mounting difficulties of the Netherland’s position in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, but this was a tremendous shock indeed. After much deliberation, the British were allowed to trade at Deshima for that year only. Much to the surprise of the Japanese, British clippers arrived at Deshima in 1824 as well. The Bakufu, now wary of the seeming inability of the British to follow simple instructions, this time decided to close off access, which led to a naval skirmish and a bombardment of Nagasaki. Hundreds of Japanese civilians were killed and the government was incensed, vowing to prevent inroads into Japan on the part of the British. A proclamation went out to fire upon any foreign ships that attempted to land in Japan, though in areas of the country less loyal to the Shogun such as Satsuma province, the British were reportedly able to barter for supplies.


By 1827, the Shogun officially reversed his early policy, and allowed the British to set up a trade post and an embassy at Deshima, hoping that the British would take the place of the Dutch as a pliable artery for limited contact with the outside world. For the first few years the British traders who visited Deshima largely abided by the agreement under which they had been allowed to set up a trading post there, but there was a growing desire for British merchants to open the “Japan Market” fully to their manufactures. The British government, loath to incur further military commitments so far away from home in light of their diminished position in Europe and America, resisted the demands of these merchants. Nevertheless, as stories began to abound of a large, rich potential market for the abundance of goods produced in the newly industrialising Britain, it seemed only a matter of time before internal pressure would force the British government to revise their policy toward Japan. And if that were to occur it seemed, Japan would never be the same again.

* * * * * *

State Isolation, Private Expansion - China's Relationship with the World
At the beginning of the 19th century, although the dynasty had lost some lustre following rebellions at home and reversals abroad, the Qing Emperor could still conceivably see his domain as the “Middle Kingdom”, the most important state on Earth. The Chinese had of course lost border wars against the Burmese and Iranians of course, but their kingdoms of jungle and desert respectively could not compete with China in terms of riches or population. There was an increasing problem with piracy in the south, as well as opium traders from Europe, but their numbers were insignificant and they were at any rate far from Beijing [1]. For the new Jiaqing Emperor, the more significant challenges were to fight off the “White Lotus” rebels while solving the problems of corruption and famine that had arisen in the later reign of the Qianlong Emperor. Focused on internal challenges, the court at Beijing remained relatively ignorant of events outside its borders, possibly to a greater extent than even Japan.


Though this was true for the imperial court, the same could not be said of individual Chinese. The late 18th century had saw great amounts of migration from Southern China to Southeast Asia, and this trend continued into the 19th century, with particularly large numbers settling in the increasingly prosperous Siam, where many Chinese found employment on the land as well as in manufacturing and commercial enterprises. In some respects, Southeast Asia was filling the role that America had done for Europeans, as sources of exotic raw materials as well as destinations for Chinese manufactures. The key difference was that unlike the Europeans in America, the Chinese who went to Southeast Asia for the most part integrated themselves into the societies and political systems of the existing peoples of the region, as opposed to destroying them entirely or planting themselves on the top. The Chinese state, unlike those of Europe, would not go to war to protect the commercial interests of Chinese abroad, nor to secure Chinese settlement in these faraway lands, and this was partly due to its completely different perception of international relations.


China’s own internal issues were significant enough to its emperors without considering foreign adventurism. Although the corrupt Heshen was forced to commit suicide, his legendary corruption had affected almost all areas of China’s bureaucracy. The system that previously had almost eliminated famine as well as the need for most taxes had now turned into a system in which officials used their offices to amount as much personal fortune as possible. This added to the cost of defeating the Lotus rebellion in the 1800s and 1810s, which almost wiped out the silver reserves of the Chinese government. However, by 1820 it appeared as though the most difficult times were over. Order had been restored across much of China, the budget was in surplus once again. Although the prosperity that had been seen up until the late 18th century was not to return in part due to overpopulation and a lessening demand for Chinese goods abroad, it could be reasonably concluded that the “Crisis of the Qing” was over. Further evidence of the Chinese government’s vigour could be found in its suppression of the opium trade in the 1820s, which combined anti-smuggling operations with diplomatic efforts to neighbouring kingdoms to restrict the production and trade of opium.


This left China unaware of the great changes going on elsewhere in the world however. While the Islamic States of the Middle East were already beginning to experience the true extent of Western military and economic power (the same being true of India in the latter regard by the 1820s), China remained protected by her great distance, as well as a lack of any nearby European powerbase [2]. Her East Asian neighbours remained isolationist, and her only real rival to the West, Iran, was far more concerned with the growing threat from Russia than to seek a rerun of the stalemate of her earlier war with Qing China. It still remained to be seen how the great changes taking place in other parts of the world in the 19th century would affect the middle kingdom by the 1830s however.


[1] – It is worth noting here that without Bengal, the British are not able to produce and ship the huge quantities of opium that drained China of its silver in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Smaller amounts produced and sold by native states in India and Southeast Asia have not been able to fill the gap that Bengal has left.

[2] – There is no British Bengal for example, and the British East Indies have not been consolidated to the extent where they can serve as an alternate power base.

* * * * * *

Author's Notes - Asia is one of the last parts of the world, Oceania excepted, which remains relatively isolated from the West at least in part due to geographical distance. However, as we are at the dawn of the age of the steamship, this is not likely to last. It does not follow however that this will result in a re-run of OTL. There is no manpower well similar to India for England to batter down China's defences and there is always the chance that Japan will react to the arrival of the West in force differently. The next update will be Africa, where there have been some interesting goings-on since last time.
 
Threadmarks.

Maybe an Early Meiji? The Qing however seem to still be pretty isolationist, but hopefully that will change. No opium war is good though.
 
So China could end up being more isolationist than Japan when the White Devils come knocking, which would be quite the reversal of OTL. I'd imagine Russia would be verrry interested in snacking some easy glory in East Asia, but the last update has shown them being more interested in the Caucasus and Europe than China or Japan.
 
By 1827, the Shogun officially reversed his early policy, and allowed the British to set up a trade post and an embassy at Deshima, hoping that the British would take the place of the Dutch as a pliable artery for limited contact with the outside world. For the first few years the British traders who visited Deshima largely abided by the agreement under which they had been allowed to set up a trading post there, but there was a growing desire for British merchants to open the “Japan Market” fully to their manufactures. The British government, loath to incur further military commitments so far away from home in light of their diminished position in Europe and America, resisted the demands of these merchants. Nevertheless, as stories began to abound of a large, rich potential market for the abundance of goods produced in the newly industrialising Britain, it seemed only a matter of time before internal pressure would force the British government to revise their policy toward Japan. And if that were to occur it seemed, Japan would never be the same again.

The incentive will probably be creating an ally nation to keep Russia's Pacific ambitions in check.

China’s own internal issues were significant enough to its emperors without considering foreign adventurism. Although the corrupt Heshen was forced to commit suicide, his legendary corruption had affected almost all areas of China’s bureaucracy. The system that previously had almost eliminated famine as well as the need for most taxes had now turned into a system in which officials used their offices to amount as much personal fortune as possible. This added to the cost of defeating the Lotus rebellion in the 1800s and 1810s, which almost wiped out the silver reserves of the Chinese government. However, by 1820 it appeared as though the most difficult times were over. Order had been restored across much of China, the budget was in surplus once again. Although the prosperity that had been seen up until the late 18th century was not to return in part due to overpopulation and a lessening demand for Chinese goods abroad, it could be reasonably concluded that the “Crisis of the Qing” was over. Further evidence of the Chinese government’s vigour could be found in its suppression of the opium trade in the 1820s, which combined anti-smuggling operations with diplomatic efforts to neighbouring kingdoms to restrict the production and trade of opium.

While surprised, I am glad to see the Qing Emperor was able to successfully crackdown on the Opioid Crisis(and the irony isn't lost on me) and corruption without the interference of the British.
 
Good to see East Asia being set on what seems like a better path than OTL--a stronger, more stable South Asia seems to have blunted European ambitions, though Russia seems to be unhurt by such happenings.
 
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