A Destiny Realized: A Timeline of Afsharid Iran and Beyond

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Another thing I'm left wondering is with the near decade of political chaos in France, combined with probably the growing pains of industrialization and a rapidly increasing population, how many are leaving towards Louisiana and New France (and also the Spanish colonies; the Bourbon reforms would still be encouraging immigration after all)? By now the relative stabilization of the frontier between the colonies would likely encourage some investment in the New World, and all that cheap land would look really tempting to the smallholders in France that are getting squeezed out by high food prices and inefficient agriculture.
 
To say that everything east of Kivu is part of the Muslim world is still a bit much at this point, but to say that it's gradually falling into its orbit is pretty on the ball. When the ball does drop in regards to cash crops, Zanzibar is going to start looking like some East African analogue to Brazil, though possibly with worse footballers in the future. To some extent this happened later on in OTL, but with a head start of a few decades Zanzibar will be making a different and in many ways, a bigger impact on Africa and the world economy in general.

This economic boom of course will be pretty crap for the millions of slaves who are likely to suffer and possibly die in its making, but with an agricultural boom the demographic effect may be lessened somewhat.


Indicus is right. Zanzibar ITTL is more or less the effort of those Omanis who could not resign themselves to Persian rule and who fled to Zanzibar. This of course is likely to be beneficial in the long run, as Zanzibar and the East African coast is a far richer base than Oman itself, something the al-Busaidis realised in OTL a bit later on.

As I'd said earlier, a good analogue for Zanzibar is likely to be Brazil economically speaking, though it will remain far more mixed in terms of languages and the relationship of interior peoples to the Coast (which is likely to become heavily Arab-Swahili by the mid-19th century). Its relationship with Europe may well be very different from OTL depending on what happens in terms of colonialism and issues such as the anti-Slavery movement.

Considering the earlier settlement taking place on the east african coast before much of the islamisation had taken place otl by sunnis and the radical nature of these colonists will have some interesting butterflies. I wonder if this Somewhat Shia wank will end up being an Ibadi wank too that leads to many more africans and zanzibaris being converted by ibadi omani refugees.
 
With TTL French Revolution being virtually crushed, the TTL's world will definitely be different than we used to know in OTL. Most likely less republics and perhaps monarchies of varied kinds will prevailed perhaps?
 
Idk, that's a lot of resentment being crushed and republics as a whole will be less initially discredited than they were by the excesses of the Jacobins. When this blows it could be in even more spectacular fashion.
 
Yeah at the turn of the 20th century Europe and the rest of the world apart from the Americas wete dominated by fairly conservative monarchies some giving great power to their monarchs, all it takes is a few cataclysms and republics could pop up all over the place
 
You still have all the things that caused revolutions, like Enlightenment values as well as immense social change. Arguably, the Dutch Patriot Period was a predecessor to the French Revolution.
 
I’m rooting for China! Can the Qing please be better off ITTL? I mean with all of their land (especially Manchuria), a huge economy, and possibly expansion, like annexation of Vietnam. If possible, maybe I can write a small thing for China?
 
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Well, that’s an absolutely massive change.
A massive change indeed. On one hand, Radical Republicanism has never got the chance to rear its head quite like it did in OTL, but the forces of reaction are not nearly as strong as they were either. At least going into the first part of the 19th century, there is likely to be a little more deviation from the political norm.
Saint Domingue is just gonna blow up later. Probably more brutally than before. Not gonna help once sugar takes off in Brazil and Coffee in Central America and the competition grows stiff
Once they've tasted freedom, I don't really see the inhabitants of Saint Domingue settling for slavery forevermore. Legal equality for Free Blacks, at least for the time being, is going to change a hell of a lot in France too as time goes on, though this isn't to say racism has been wiped out, and there's still a mountain to climb to get to that stage.
I don’t think there was an enthusiasm for constitutionalism in 18th century Europe. If anything, it went the other way, with kings smothering the feudal assemblies. The victory of the enlightened absolutist Bourbon over a would-be legislature ITTL vindicates absolutism.
18th Century Europe of TTL is a little bit different in this regard. In TTL Austria has had a weak constitution since 1798, granted by the relatively liberal-minded Emperor Leopold. It isn't exactly a paradise of constitutional monarchies, but it isn't the absolutist Europe that we saw in OTL following the defeat of Napoleon.
I am willing to believe that France will endure a 19th century comparable to that of OTL, a political seesaw with neverending defeats.
It would be hard-pressed to overcome France's instability in OTL, considering the 19th century saw three republics, two monarchies and two empires for France. As in OTL, part of it is likely to depend on France's military fortunes.
Another thing I'm left wondering is with the near decade of political chaos in France, combined with probably the growing pains of industrialization and a rapidly increasing population, how many are leaving towards Louisiana and New France (and also the Spanish colonies; the Bourbon reforms would still be encouraging immigration after all)? By now the relative stabilization of the frontier between the colonies would likely encourage some investment in the New World, and all that cheap land would look really tempting to the smallholders in France that are getting squeezed out by high food prices and inefficient agriculture.
The years following the defeat of the revolution at home are likely to see a large increase in the numbers of people going to French North America. Quebec already has a fairly significant population by this point but Louisiana may take some time to get off the ground. With the Americans still controlled by Britain though, France may well get some breathing space.
Say, how's Poland doing so far? I'm surprised it hasn't been partitioned yet, did it manage to get rid of the strangle of Liberum Veto?
Poland in TTL was the first constitutional country in the world! Without Frederick hankering for a piece of sweet Poland, the partitions haven't really been pushed along as they were in OTL, but it remains the playground of Russia and, to a lesser extent, Austria. The Liberum Veto has gone but the Polish Parliament remains under the heavy influence of the Russians in particular, making the constitution something of a dead letter in practice. Still, the country is independent for the time being.
Considering the earlier settlement taking place on the east african coast before much of the islamisation had taken place otl by sunnis and the radical nature of these colonists will have some interesting butterflies. I wonder if this Somewhat Shia wank will end up being an Ibadi wank too that leads to many more africans and zanzibaris being converted by ibadi omani refugees.
The Swahilis at this point are already heavily Muslim and have been Muslim for centuries, making the chances of Zanzibar becoming a fully Ibadi empire fairly slim, and it is worth keeping in mind that not every Omani is Ibadi. However, the sect may find itself some converts in the interior of Africa as Zanzibari influence grows there, and the mixed nature of the polity may encourage tolerance, at least amongst different sects of Muslims. Not a bad thing for a large trading empire.
With TTL French Revolution being virtually crushed, the TTL's world will definitely be different than we used to know in OTL. Most likely less republics and perhaps monarchies of varied kinds will prevailed perhaps?
At this point there's still a lot of room for movement in the future. If monarchy avoids being a force associated with reaction that will be a good step for the institution, and may do it good in the long run.
You still have all the things that caused revolutions, like Enlightenment values as well as immense social change. Arguably, the Dutch Patriot Period was a predecessor to the French Revolution.
Many of these forces are only going to grow with intensity as the industrial revolution really gets underway.
I’m rooting for China! Can the Qing please be better off ITTL? I mean with all of their land (especially Manchuria), a huge economy, and possibly expansion, like annexation of Vietnam. If possible, maybe I can write a small thing for China?
China's future is definitely going to be very different from OTL's. In some respect, the factors that held her back in OTL are still present, but there are a number of key differences.
#1 - No British Bengal means no easy sources of huge quantities of opium with which to ravage Southern China. While opium was grown elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the lack of the enormous growth in the British trade of the drug means that if the opium crisis does come, it is far more likely to be slow burning, having its own effects in China.
#2 - Without the Europeans as strong in Asia, making inroads into China will be slower and more difficult. Whether this will aid or hinder Chinese modernisation in the long run remains to be seen however.
#3 - Russia remains as a big European threat to China, but if the Europeans are perceived to be as large a threat as they were in OTL, China may be able to find common cause with her neighbours, should they share a common enemy. Particularly if there was a large and militarily able neighbour to China's west that wasn't there in OTL...
 
Prologue to Part 4
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The World at the Dawn of the Nineteenth Century

The French Revolution, although suppressed in the end by the French royalists as well as France’s neighbours, had unleashed ideas and forces that could not be so easily put back into a bottle. Amongst some of Europe’s elite, a growing sense of scepticism about the ideas of the Enlightenment, which had ended with the rejection of the divinely established social order, the Revolution was a warning to those “Enlightened Despots” who had toyed with ideas such as Constitutionalism. To those supporters of the Enlightenment however, it was a sign that rationality and liberty were necessary to avoid the pitfalls that the backward French monarchy had fallen to. Or perhaps, it was as the later Quebecois leader Alexander de Tocqueville put it, “The primary effect of that revolution of decades past was to draw the battle lines between progress and conservatism. This great revolution was the starting shot for the modern age” [1].


At the dawn of the 19th century, there was an increasing feeling among Europeans that they were on the precipice of enormous change. The advances of science and technology had left them as the most knowledgeable society in history thus far, and the emerging industrial revolution in Great Britain pointed toward a new kind of material affluence. Underpinning these changes was the shift of thought which began to disregard the previous bases of society such as religion and caste, pointing in a more humanistic direction. European explorers had mapped much of the world, including the previously untouched lands of Australia and Aotearoa, and indeed they had settled along much of the coasts of the Americas, yet the interior remained mainly untouched, and sometimes unmapped. Certainly the centre of Africa remained a mystery to European explorers, closed off by unfamiliarity as well as the ravages of disease, which threatened to strike any European foolish enough to strike for the interior.


And yet, if Europeans felt that there was a new age dawning, this could not be felt in the rest of the world outside of the Americas. This is not to say that Africa and Asia were static, as new states were formed in both and commerce in the Indian Ocean and beyond entered a new boom period. The end of the 18th century had seen one of the most active periods of state formation, with most Southeast Asian states re-founded and a new commercial empire in Zanzibar formed. However, for much of the old world outside of Europe, there was no conception of a supranational community, at least outside of the Islamic World. China resembled a whole world in herself, and much of the rest of Asia looked toward her as Chinese merchants and migrants began to be a more common sight in Southeast Asia. Certainly, there was no conception of Europeans being exceptional in any way, in spite of their presence in almost all coastal areas of Asia. Certainly they were respected for their commercial and technological acumen, yet for most these Europeans were just as any other group of people.


Of all the other “worlds” of the old world, it was perhaps only the Islamic World that had begun to feel the impact of a changing Europe. The 18th century had seen Europeans and Muslims in conflict in various parts of the world with both sides enjoying varying degrees of successes. However, toward the close of the century Islamic powers began to see more severe setbacks, with the Ottomans and the Javanese on both sides of the Islamic world seeing increasing amounts of their territory occupied by European powers. It was only in the former however that there was a sense that these defeats were due to innate advantages possessed by Europeans, and it was in the Ottoman Empire that the first reactions to a modern Europe were taking place. Though the end of the 18th century had so far only seen limited attempts on the part of the Ottomans to understand the reasons for the success of Europeans, this nevertheless represented a larger step forward than had taken place nearly anywhere else in the world.


However, it is unlikely that anyone in 1800 properly anticipated the changes that the 19th century would bring to the world. The forces that were unleashed in the industrial revolution of Britain would threaten not only the various international orders found throughout the world, but would threaten to upend the economies and societies of every corner of the globe.


[1] – A relative of our own Alexis de Tocqueville. Clumsily disguised of course.

* * * * * *​

Author's Notes - A bit of a short update this week. Partially as a bit of a round-up of the last cycle, and to set the scene for the next, where things are really going to get going. The 19th century of OTL was, until the 20th century, a time of absolutely enormous change, which for the first time saw the world around people transform in the space of their lives. Not a corner of the world remained unchanged, and there were few aspects of people's day to day lives that remained unchanged. Part of the challenge in writing any history involving this century is encompassing not simply the changed political map of the world, but the economic, social and cultural changes that our own world underwent, and those that this timeline's world will see. Hopefully over the next months (and years?) I'll manage to do this, though it is worthwhile noting that I plan to continue this timeline up until the year 1900 at the very least.
 
I have a small request: that the Qing do similar reforms to what the Song Dynasty did.

Just look at this (look at first 2 answers, third one is a bit too short to be useful):https://www.quora.com/Did-the-Song-...-were-the-noteworthy-achievements-of-the-Song

Also, doing all of those reforms would not only strengthen China (which already has a third of global economy), but make the Manchu rulers popular. Besides, they could use the steam engine which the Song nearly made to catch up to the allies.

Also, China should annex Vietnam, Hokkaido, and the land around lake Irtusk. Especially all of Vietnam, and when the get Vietnam, they should start producing Vietnamese rifles, which were some of the best in the world in the 18th century but would likely be OK by early 1800 standards

Maybe the Qing can survive and look like this:https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net...a_today.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20091105060119
 
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However, it is unlikely that anyone in 1800 properly anticipated the changes that the 19th century would bring to the world. The forces that were unleashed in the industrial revolution of Britain would threaten not only the various international orders found throughout the world, but would threaten to upend the economies and societies of every corner of the globe.

Be quite interested how the Screamble for Africa will look this time around now that it's more islamicised in the eastern portion of it.
 
I have a small request: that the Qing do similar reforms to what the Song Dynasty did.

Just look at this (look at first 2 answers, third one is a bit too short to be useful):https://www.quora.com/Did-the-Song-...-were-the-noteworthy-achievements-of-the-Song

Also, doing all of those reforms would not only strengthen China (which already has a third of global economy), but make the Manchu rulers popular. Besides, they could use the steam engine which the Song nearly made to catch up to the allies.

Also, China should annex Vietnam, Hokkaido, and the land around lake Irtusk. Especially all of Vietnam, and when the get Vietnam, they should start producing Vietnamese rifles, which were some of the best in the world in the 18th century but would likely be OK by early 1800 standards
To be fair though, there hasn't been a huge amount of butterflies when it's come to the Qing. Not too much reason why history would diverge there to a huge extent, at least until the 1830s when the Century of Humiliation would've started (lacking European domination of India will likely preempt the Opium Wars). Reforms aren't great for stability either and, while technological advances will march forward, there won't be as much of an effort to accelerate military+naval tech and equipment in relation to OTL, where the Qing were forced to modernize their armies (actually besting the French on land and outgunning the Japanese at sea. Not that that did too much for the Sino-Japanese War but that was the case). If anything though, the Qing should be in a worsening situation, with the White Lotus Rebellion, Eight Trigrams uprising, Miao Rebellions, etc. (all within 10 years of 1800) shaking the Qing's stability and inciting more unrest against the Manchu.

As for annexing Vietnam, that probably would cause even more issues, seeing as how Chinese invasions of Vietnam over the last millennium haven't gone too well.
 
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