A Democratic Japan

Here's a thought:

At the 1924 Washington Naval Treaty...
(a) Japan doesn't have as onerous impositions put upon it
(b) the issue of Qingdao is settled differently, with Japan withdrawing from Qingdao and abandoning its influence over the South Manchurian Railway and Shandong Peninsula in exchange for a cession of the Liaodong Peninsula and Kando region of Manchuria (a traditionally Korean-settled area).
(c) Further on, Japan agrees to withdraw from Fujian in exchange for Zhoushan
(d) China goes Communist/Socialist (sort of) in the early 1930s due to a merged LeftKMT-CCP Government (this is me limiting butterflies and thus there still being a PRC) purging the right-KMT. China's name is officially changed to the People's Republic of China. Shanghai, with its Japanese Garrison, is carved off as the Shanghai Free State following the January 28th incident.
(e) The last holdout of the Right-KMT is on Hainan, and they invite the Japanese onto the island to protect them. The Japanese seize the island due to opportunism and it being an important logistical station for seizing Indochina in the name of the allies/Free France. Many Right-KMT relocate to the island like they did to Taiwan OTL. At first the island is a puppet/client regime, but over time Japanese settlers and business interests become a larger and larger presence on the island and the island is incorporated into Japan.
(f) As decolonization rolls around, Japan buys Guanzhouwan from France rather than France ceding it to the PRC in 1945.
(g) Japan purchases Macau and East Timor from Portugal as well.
(h) The Japanese convince the Dutch to Part with West Timor in exchange for being a buffer between the Netherlands New Guinea and newly-independent Indonesia. The Japanese also prop up the Republic of South Maluku. Plus there will naturally be a trade agreement between the Netherlands and Japan which enables Japan to benefit from Netherlands New Guinea's resources. Down the line, when the lefty Dutch government in the 1970s finds overseas holdings unfashionable (like with Surinam OTL), the Japan swoops in and takes the place off of Amsterdam's hands. Besides, by this point the economy of the area is very tightly bound to Japan.

Also, Japan was somewhat open to Jewish immigration in the 30s and early 40s (The Shanghai Ghetto, Proposals for settlement in Manchuria, Chiune Sugihara, etc). Perhaps Japan takes in a large number of Jewish Refugees TTL. OTL Settlement proposals ranged between 18,000 to 600,000. Sugihara saved 6,000 OTL. 23,000 made their way to Shanghai OTL.

Altogether, Japan proper (that is, excluding Shanghai which is an independent state under Japanese protection) has some 310 million people I'd think (150 in Japan without WW2 deaths, 90 in Korea without WW2, Korean Famine, the Korean War, 20 million in Liadong, 20 million in Taiwan, 10 million in Hainan, plus 20 from all the other areas).

Also, with Japan being part of the allies TTL, I think they'd urge for Ethiopia to get Italian Somaliland. The Japanese liked the Ethiopians and I'm sure Japan would enjoy having good trade relations. They'd likely play a signficant presence in the East African theater. Ethiopia is thus federated between Ethiopia proper, Eritrea, and Ethiopian Somaliland here.

I wasn't sure of what to do with French Indochina. I gave Thailand a boundary further east because France agreed to such a boundary OTL and that was only revised in face of WW2. I'm not sure Japan would be eager to give France her colonies back and Roosevelt OTL tried to give Indochina to Chiang. French Indochina being made into three independent states seems likely to me.

I also gave Zanzibar to Ethiopia. I though an Ethiopian Zanzibar would be cool, and I'd imagine that the Sultan wouldn't mind being part of the Ethiopian Federation once the British abandon him as they did OTL (it certainly beats his OTL fate).

Roosevelt OTL tried to give it to Chiang and the Japanese may not be eager


Yes, I know the map isn't quite accurate. I used a 1960s basemap but this map includes a Japan with mid-1970s boundaries.

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I think the biggest problem here is that there is nothing in your timeline that suggests why Japan overcomes the OTL problems that undermined its democratic system and resists military control. It seems to me that there are lots of opportunities here for nationalist parties to agitate about and lots of opportunities for the military to develop the powerbase that OTL it used to destablise and take over the country.

edit - ninjaed by @WaterproofPotatoes

Also, a couple of knit-picks:

- I appreciate you are trying to deploy a butterfly net and keep a PRC, but as with all such nets it doesn't quite work. A Chinese state taken over by the left-wing KMT in the 1920s/1930s would look very different to the PRC that emerged in 1949. And have different aims. Let alone how it deals with warlords.
- Japan can't just take over Shanghai like that - neither the international community or the Chinese Government would accept such a slap in the face. I think the most you can hope for is similar to OTL - a demilitarised zone.
- Why does your PRC allow Japan to take over former Dutch and French concessions? Wouldn't it just march in? Indeed, it seems a curiously inert regional power having pacified much of its massive territory, somehow aquired Manchuria, but leaving Japan alone to essentially support dissident elements along its coastline. I mean - your whole map hems China in with a Japanese ring of iron along the coast of islands and naval bases. I can't see a growing major power like TTL's PRC being content with that...
 
I'm aware that it's a ridiculous butterfly net when it comes to the PRC. I just wanted to toy with the concept of a Greater Japan and try to keep things as OTL-consistent as possible. I would imagine that China under a left-KMT/CCP government would be busy trying to put down warlords until the 1950s however, which is why Japan is able to get away with grabbing Macau, Hainan, and Guangzhouwan however. Plus, Portugal had permanent ownership over Macau and until Guangzhouwan 1997 Guangzhouwan is France's to do with as it pleases. When Japan gets these gains, China is neither able nor legally justified to stop Japan.

I'll accept that the Shanghai Free State is superfluous. Maybe Japan agrees to withdraw from Shanghai and Fujian in exchange for Zhoushan?

I'm not quite sure how the Chinese could block Japan making gains from the Dutch. There's a significant maritime barrier in the way.


The Washington Naval Treaty being less of a slap in the face coupled with the territorial gains from the Shandong Exchange are what weaken the Nationalists in the Japanese Government. Plus, without occupying a chunk of Manchuria, they don't have the opportunity to start a war.
 
I noticed TTL that the WNT is in 1924 rather than 1922 OTL- that would mean that each of the great naval powers have a lot more massive ships laid down and more work done to them. Japan would also have suffered from the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923.

Does the extra two years mean more naval buildup?

I played with an alt-WNT which led to my current timeline, so it would be interesting to see the parallels.
 
Honestly? 1924 is a bit late of a POD. You'd have to go back earlier to avoid the rapidly spiking militarism in the Japanese Government- Hakko Ichiu has a good POD on the matter.
 
Wasn't much of Japanese Militarism a product of Japan being disrespected at the end of the first World War?

If Japan makes out better it may lessen things.
 
Wasn't much of Japanese Militarism a product of Japan being disrespected at the end of the first World War?

If Japan makes out better it may lessen things.
Actually, the root of Japanese militarism was before the first world war because the military started gaining more and more power over the government, and then the hardliners were only given more credibility when Japan was shafted at the end of WWI.
 
Actually, the root of Japanese militarism was before the first world war because the military started gaining more and more power over the government, and then the hardliners were only given more credibility when Japan was shafted at the end of WWI.

If Japan were not shafted, what would be the implications thereof?
 
Actually, I could trace fall of taisho democracy to Hara Takashi's assassination. As a first commoner PM, he attempted to establish civilian control over Japanese military.
 
Doesn't the scenario fall on its premise? The Meiji reformation was centred on making Japan an imperial (non-democratic) and a colonial power, for which industrialisation and modernisation were necessities. This was temporary set off-course by the Taisho era (1912-1926ish) under which Japan was, by and large, a parliamentary democracy. Yet pan-Asianism, pro-war and conquest of/constraining China remained in the reigning conservative DNA. One could imagine an extension of the Taisho democracy that caves on its ambitions due to domestic disorder (communism takes root) leading to Japan involuntarily giving up on its ambition to take Manchuria, French Indochina, etc. There's little suggesting a democratic Japan from 1912 onwards would act differently from OTL.
 
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