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POD 1.
Christmas 1940 Churchill is eating his Christmas pudding and gets a sixpence piece stuck in his windpipe and dies.
POD 2.
Italy does not declare war on the British and French because they are actually planning their invasion of Greece.
So -
Can we get a peace treaty in the west with no Winston to rally the cause?
With no prospect of British help can we keep Yougoslavia in the Axis sphere?
If the Italians actually plan and do not move against the British in Africa can they do better against the Greeks?
If the Germans can attack Russia 4-6 weeks earlier and with less troops and aircraft in the west can they do any better? If Germany is not facing a war on two fronts what additional steps might Stalin take in the East to thwart any German invasion?