A deadly sixpence

Orry

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POD 1.

Christmas 1940 Churchill is eating his Christmas pudding and gets a sixpence piece stuck in his windpipe and dies.

POD 2.

Italy does not declare war on the British and French because they are actually planning their invasion of Greece.


So -

Can we get a peace treaty in the west with no Winston to rally the cause?

With no prospect of British help can we keep Yougoslavia in the Axis sphere?

If the Italians actually plan and do not move against the British in Africa can they do better against the Greeks?

If the Germans can attack Russia 4-6 weeks earlier and with less troops and aircraft in the west can they do any better? If Germany is not facing a war on two fronts what additional steps might Stalin take in the East to thwart any German invasion?
 
POD 1.

Christmas 1940 Churchill is eating his Christmas pudding and gets a sixpence piece stuck in his windpipe and dies.

POD 2.
Italy does not declare war on the British and French because they are actually planning their invasion of Greece.

Italy declared war in June. The invasion of Greece was at the end of October - four months later, and was apparently decided on by Mussolini in July.

Mussolini's original reason for attacking Greece was that Greece was allowing British forces to refuel there. Not much of a grievance if Italy is not at war with Britain.

So -

Can we get a peace treaty in the west with no Winston to rally the cause?

No. The decision to fight on had been made six months earlier and concurred in by the entire war coalition Cabinet.

If the Italians actually plan and do not move against the British in Africa can they do better against the Greeks?

Well, yes. If Italy is not at war with Britain, it is not under blockade, can import oil and other materials, and doesn't lost half of its merchant fleet. (All Italian ships outside the Med were cut off - many in the Med were in Allied ports and were seized.)



If the Germans can attack Russia 4-6 weeks earlier and with less troops and aircraft in the west can they do any better?

BARBAROSSA could not have been earlier in 1941; the roads were not dried out until June.

If Germany is not facing a war on two fronts what additional steps might Stalin take in the East to thwart any German invasion?

He can allow Soviet forces to be on a state of alert and readiness. OTL Stalin was convinced that all reports of German invasion plans were British tricks to provoke a shooting incident so the USSR would be drawn into the war on the British side. If Britain is not in the war, Stalin would expect German attack rather than bend over backwards to avoid an "incident".
 

Orry

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Should have been Christmas 1939..... my bad.

During the Phoney war and before Italy joined up.

Might it butterfly the Altmark incident? Without that do the Germans move against Denmark and Norway in 1940?
 
Regarding Italy neutral because he want to attack Greece, i think that there are two possibilities

1 - change the objective of the invasion with Yugoslavia, at this stage of the war it's a more credible target, as is a long standing italian desire (predate Mussolini) to get a major influence in the Balkans.
2 - a PoD that make the relationship between Greece and Italy more antagonist, probably the problem in Turkey are greater and Athens try to make inroad in Albania (who is italian turf), because OTL invasion was much due to Benny want to demostrate italian prowness and shove away the humiliating failures and for strategic reason due to the war situation.
Say that, with Italy not waste away his resource in various fronts and use all capacity in a single target, things will be different because as Italy was in a different league than Uk and France, both Yugoslavia and Greece are in an another league than Italy.
 
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