A Day in July: An Early 20th Century Timeline
- Thread starter Zulfurium
- Start date
Interesting. The separation of the princesses seems logical - with 4 of them I would naturally presume that they'd have a plan B anyway where the Tsar, Tsarina, and crown prince separate and then the oldest and youngest and the two middle sisters try to escape, with that pairing being split up if need be, and that is what you have, even if it is more spur of the moment than planned. I wonder how far into Siberia Olga and Anatasia are - that is a huge area.
The use of radio has some interesting side effects. I don't know if they would have had reporters and the like, but it may be seen as a medium slightly more used for dramas than just plain news reporting. I don't know if this will have a huge effect, but whereas OTL there were false reports that the reporter covering the Hindenberg disaster was roundly criticized or even fired for his very emotional reporting, tht cry of "Oh, the humanity" and other high emoting might be seen as just normal for radio TTL.
With the 1918 Spring Offensive possibly blunted, that will have some very interesting results. Will Hoffman be sacked quickly if he can't produce results? Germany may figure with Romania and Italy out of the war they *should* have it easy - although he might get a break in that the Germans rebounded against the Russian offensive well. (After all, they don't have OTL as a guide so they probably figure, "Okay, Russia gave us all they had and with General Witner fighting for them as it did against Napoleon, and we didn't wither away, so it's not too bad." Plus, Wilhelm II might not have been the type to fire people that quickly, anyway.)
The use of radio has some interesting side effects. I don't know if they would have had reporters and the like, but it may be seen as a medium slightly more used for dramas than just plain news reporting. I don't know if this will have a huge effect, but whereas OTL there were false reports that the reporter covering the Hindenberg disaster was roundly criticized or even fired for his very emotional reporting, tht cry of "Oh, the humanity" and other high emoting might be seen as just normal for radio TTL.
With the 1918 Spring Offensive possibly blunted, that will have some very interesting results. Will Hoffman be sacked quickly if he can't produce results? Germany may figure with Romania and Italy out of the war they *should* have it easy - although he might get a break in that the Germans rebounded against the Russian offensive well. (After all, they don't have OTL as a guide so they probably figure, "Okay, Russia gave us all they had and with General Witner fighting for them as it did against Napoleon, and we didn't wither away, so it's not too bad." Plus, Wilhelm II might not have been the type to fire people that quickly, anyway.)
We will get to Finland in a while, but yes they have declared independence at this point. Ukrainian independence was declared in November 1917 as IOTL and is discussed in update four. I hadn't thought much of Lithuania tbh, but from my quick read of the situation they are allowed to declare independence by the Germans.
I think that is a compliment. I am taking it as a compliment, so thank you
. But seriously, I can't imagine a better result than actually moving someone with my writing.Trotsky is an interesting figure, much as many of the other leading communists in Russia were. They were all shaped by this deep-seated sense that anything could be done in the name of the revolution. Trotsky is an easy man to dislike, but from a storytelling perspective he is an absolutely fantastic character to move around for that precise reason.
The Romanovs will have their place in the story, and there are plenty of monarchies out there at this point in time, so while Russia might not turn out monarchist (then again, the pieces are there for them to rebuild) there are plenty of other places to get your monarchist kicks.
Why do you think so?
I mean, sure the RSDLP, Constituent Assembly and Russian Republic are in deep shit, but there are plenty of other left-wing factions around. The Left SRs have extensive support in the countryside while the Bolsheviks in Moscow are completely in the clear - expanding their power ever further.
The events leading up to the struggle for control of the Romanovs are based largely on OTL and proceed in much the same way as OTL events. Keeping Olga and Anastasia around will allow me to work them into the story in a variety of ways as we move forward. The Romanov sisters are currently staying at the Sakharnoye Cloister (real location, but no OTL cloister to my knowledge) in the Krasnoyarsk Krai. It is north-west of Krasnoyarsk around 270 kilometers from the city. I hope that helps, should be able to find it with google maps.
You might have a point about radio developing differently in how it is used, but I think the main consequence will be an earlier appreciation of the possibilities for mass media - specifically the radio. Seeing how captivated the Russian population (and the world population once they get their hands on it) are with the events depicted, the medium will see more extensive use earlier on by a variety of figures.
The first half of 1918 on the western front will be the focus of several updates as we move forward so I won't make too much comment on what is going to happen there. That said, IMO it would be difficult for Hoffmann to do a worse job than Ludendorff in 1918. Quite honestly, Ludendorff's conduct during 1918 is absolutely abysmal - being characterized by countless miscalculations, wrongheaded orders and a mental collapse which turned into a disaster for Germany. Additionally, Hoffmann is quite possibly the most capable and intelligent military leader of the entire war, and was integral to all of Hindenburg and Ludendorff's successes in the East. The failures of the first couple of weeks of the Parsky Offensive land quite squarely on Ludendorff's shoulders, while the recovery is attributed to Hoffmann (with pretty damn good reason). Hoffmann is widely considered to have done a masterful job in the east while keeping his focus on the West. The German people are fully aware that while they seem to be on a winning streak, they are facing the greatest challenge yet in the west.
The princesses should be safe for quite some time, they are out of the way in a place nobody will search. If the fighting passes through the area, and the reds have control, the nuns may be turned out of the convent, or perhaps not - that sort of action might wait until "victory". Certainly the princesses would be just a couple of novices indistinguishable from the others. IMHO given the the execution of Nicholas and Alexandra, the death of Alexei, and the murder of two of the girls, support for the whites may be more vigorous than OTL when the war between Germany and the Entente. While the Germans are pleased as punch over the tumult in Russia, should there be a white peace in the west I expect they will do their best to have the reds lose out.
markus meecham
Banned
not much more than otl is still pretty damn nasty.
we have a jew in charge of the commies that shot the emperor and his wife, the change of focus is pretty obvious. uk has a pretty sizeable jewish community with a lot of influence, but again so did germany.
ps. my first choice of words in that post was "they will take this out on the jews, won't they?" idk if that would be a better choice or not.
The deaths of the Tsar and much of his family - with the rest presumed dead for the time being - will definitely play an important role in how the Russian Republican government, and the RSDLP in particular, will be viewed in the long run. I can also say that there will be quite significant foreign interventions in Russia as we move forward. The thing is, the Allies initially hoped to use the Whites to clear away the Bolsheviks before taking the war to the Germans from the east - no matter how mad that idea is. When the war ended, their interest in intervention also waned quite significantly. Depending on what happens in the west, there might be more reason for the Allies to remain involved, and the Germans might also find a stalking horse or two to support. Russia is going to get a lot more complicated before it gets simpler.
Oh, I completely agree. The years to come are not going to be good for the Jews, though I do think the specificity of the Nazis with regards to their obsession with the Jews was something of an outlier. Having a movement like the Nazis, which was built around anti-semitism more than everything else, is unlikely to happen without Adolph Hitler following his OTL course - something I can already say I don't see happening. However, anti-semitism will likely be a part of politics in general, lumping the Jews together with whatever other group of undesireables whoever wants to attack. The Nazis were unique in their singleminded focus on anti-semitism, not in their anti-semitism as such - if that makes any sense.
The connection between Russian Communism and Jews will also be an even more important part of the propaganda ITTL, but given how vitriolic it turned IOTL it would be hard to compete.
I am honestly having a bit of trouble figuring out what would plausibly happen ITTL with the jewish community - I don't think they would be persecuted in the same way as IOTL, but I do think that persecutions, pogroms etc are very likely to still happen - it is a matter of a different sort of horrible rather than an explicitly better situation (though I won't be retreading a Holocaust of the Jews ITTL - so it has to be better somehow, right?). It is such a difficult topic to deal with, and so important for the period, that I am trying to figure out how to address it.
One thing you might want to consider is that there were a whole lot of violent pogroms in Russia at various times in the century before this, including a really bloody one during Nicholas II's reign in 1903-6 according to Wikipedia.
So, while this might be more the attitude of the more sensible United States than the reactionaries in Europe, I think it's plausible that Trotsky's attitude in murdering the Tsar could be argued as being one of "getting back at those who murdered his people."
If that happens, you might see more sympathy for the Jews - at the very least, a differentiating between "leftist Jews" and "normal Jews."
This is, after all, near the dawn of psychiatry, and although Freud had some very bizarre ideas, obsessions really, a more normal person studying the situation might argue that, "This is just what happens when a people have been persecuted for so long." Perhaps a syndrome might be identified where a person like Trotsky takes on the mantle of "defender of the people," and this syndrome becomes the term for anyone who just goes berserk because of the injustices done to others, even if he himself is not impacted; they might even name it after him, just as OTL there is a Napoleon Complex.
I know, perhaps as a very logical person from a level-headed family it may be hard for me to get into the mindset of how some people think - indeed I recall teachers in History class in school saying that other people didn't come up with more level-headed things like I suggested because I was "a thinking person." And, my timelines have a tendence to presume that the best will come out of people. It may be overly optimistic to think everyone will just naturally think of it as just a normal person taking revenge because of some pogroms. However, there could certin be some attempts to understand and be sympathetic. As Paul Harvey would say, if that's not the way to bet, it's the way to pray.
So, while this might be more the attitude of the more sensible United States than the reactionaries in Europe, I think it's plausible that Trotsky's attitude in murdering the Tsar could be argued as being one of "getting back at those who murdered his people."
If that happens, you might see more sympathy for the Jews - at the very least, a differentiating between "leftist Jews" and "normal Jews."
This is, after all, near the dawn of psychiatry, and although Freud had some very bizarre ideas, obsessions really, a more normal person studying the situation might argue that, "This is just what happens when a people have been persecuted for so long." Perhaps a syndrome might be identified where a person like Trotsky takes on the mantle of "defender of the people," and this syndrome becomes the term for anyone who just goes berserk because of the injustices done to others, even if he himself is not impacted; they might even name it after him, just as OTL there is a Napoleon Complex.
I know, perhaps as a very logical person from a level-headed family it may be hard for me to get into the mindset of how some people think - indeed I recall teachers in History class in school saying that other people didn't come up with more level-headed things like I suggested because I was "a thinking person." And, my timelines have a tendence to presume that the best will come out of people. It may be overly optimistic to think everyone will just naturally think of it as just a normal person taking revenge because of some pogroms. However, there could certin be some attempts to understand and be sympathetic. As Paul Harvey would say, if that's not the way to bet, it's the way to pray.
I have read up quite extensively on the pogroms in the pre-war and war period, but I am more concerned with the post-war situation. I think you are being a tad optimistic about how Trotsky is going to be perceived in the west, and the Jews are likely to be blamed for just about anything under the sun depending on people's political persuasion. They are capitalist exploitators to the socialists, communist agitators and murderers to the right-wing, Christ-killers to the Christians and on and on and on. If there is anything that could be blamed on an individual (and somethings that couldn't) then the Jews are going to get a share of the blame - just how things worked at the time.
The challenge is more figuring out how much a difference occurs from OTL to TTL on this particular issue. What precisely changes when it is a series of Jew leading the Russian socialist factions. How do people react towards Jews in France, Germany, America and the UK? Most importantly, is it any different from how they were treated IOTL? and if so, Why?
I don't know about the psychological categorization, I think that propaganda might take on similarities to how the Soviets were depicted IOTL - just with an extra helping of anti-semitism on top of everything else.
The 20th Century, particularly its first half, was not particularly pleasant - and I don't quite know how to avoid that. This isn't going to be a TL where everything works out and everyone becomes friends - because I don't think that would have plausibly happened. That said, once things settle down and a new constellation to replace the pre-war one comes into place then thing might begin to look up.
They are still sitting pretty in the middle of revolutionary Petrograd. The Petrograders have largely forgotten about them for the time being. We have a narrative interlude coming up next, followed by a discussion of what is going on with the Western Allies before we get back to events in Russia.
While I have a good deal of sympathy for the Romanov children, I honestly have a really hard time feeling at all sorry about Nikolai or Alexandra's fates when you consider their actions both during and before the war. Nikolai was patently unsuited to ruling but insisted on holding the reigns, and allowing no one else to help him with the burden. Russia is probably one of the hardest nations to rule in history, it seems to me that you needed a particular mix of genius and cruelty to do so - either one seems to have worked, though both were of course better - but Nikolai quite simply has neither, or at least had the wrong mix of the two. His instrumental role in the series of horrific pogroms during his reign as well as his inability to hold the worst and best impulses of his people in check - not once, but twice - make him very difficult to respect.
Reading about the fate of the Romanovs, including their extended family, in Simon Sebag Montefiore's The Romanovs (Absolutely fantastic book, though Montefiore does have a tendency to get a bit too lovey-dovey of his subjects - which allows him to bring a lot of pathos to the whole endeavor, but does mean you need to find an a more critical source to even out his biases) is honestly one of the most memorably harrowing events I have read about in my life. The horror, brutality and tragedy of the whole thing is deeply moving.
I have worked on my thesis today, and haven't had time to write on the TL, but I might be able to get the narratives out tonight or tomorrow.
Thanks for the compliment
On the subject of potential reinforcement Austria-Hungary could spare to the Salonika front, I remain higly dubious of their impact.
The morale boost won't probably last long against a continued blockade, and the state of decay into which AH army has fallen into; every single success was only possible through heavy German involvement and overwatch. Bulgaria though it has better military standing on its own, was in no better shape.
Unless Germany sends in reinforcements there, I don't think the issue of Armée d'Orient offensive is going to change, except for a maybe slightly longer to come collapse.
As of the navy, Italians may be out and Austrian ships safer in the Adriatic, they remain bottled up there since the Allies keep their bases in Greece and Malta to sustain a blockade at its entrance. And I doubt central powers would be able to use Italian ports to launch their attacks in the Meditteranean; Franco-British forces could pull a WWI version of Mers-el-kebir if that was necessary, or even more; it's not like they showed much respect for Greek neutrality before.
The morale boost won't probably last long against a continued blockade, and the state of decay into which AH army has fallen into; every single success was only possible through heavy German involvement and overwatch. Bulgaria though it has better military standing on its own, was in no better shape.
Unless Germany sends in reinforcements there, I don't think the issue of Armée d'Orient offensive is going to change, except for a maybe slightly longer to come collapse.
As of the navy, Italians may be out and Austrian ships safer in the Adriatic, they remain bottled up there since the Allies keep their bases in Greece and Malta to sustain a blockade at its entrance. And I doubt central powers would be able to use Italian ports to launch their attacks in the Meditteranean; Franco-British forces could pull a WWI version of Mers-el-kebir if that was necessary, or even more; it's not like they showed much respect for Greek neutrality before.
The reinforcements to the Salonica front mostly serve to steady the positions a bit and to take some pressure off the Bulgarian and Austro-Hungarian forces already there. Keep in mind that at this point it is a matter of keeping the Allies bottled up and the Central Powers have an imminently defensible position to hold. That said, you are right in them having only a limited impact - it is a matter of margins, not major shifts, if that makes sense.
Furthermore, there is still almost a year before the Armée d'Orient went on offensive IOTL and two major shifts of commander still to go. IOTL d'Esperey took an incredible chance when he authorized the Serbian crossing of the Balkan mountains - which was what led to the outflanking of the CP positions IOTL. Whether d'Esperey is even given command of the Salonica Front ITTL is uncertain.
You are right that the Allies can close off the Adriatic with some ease, but it takes time and resources to transfer the requisite ships to the area - as detailed in the update - and even longer to build a barrage capable of holding back U-Boats and the like. It was a short term gap in the Allied blockade which allowed the CP forces to cut into supplies for a month or so. These aren't Italian ships making the attacks, the Italian fleet is transfered to Genoa while the Austro-Hungarians and particularly German U-boat crews make their new home in Venice.
Bookmark1995
Banned
While I have a good deal of sympathy for the Romanov children, I honestly have a really hard time feeling at all sorry about Nikolai or Alexandra's fates when you consider their actions both during and before the war. Nikolai was patently unsuited to ruling but insisted on holding the reigns, and allowing no one else to help him with the burden. Russia is probably one of the hardest nations to rule in history, it seems to me that you needed a particular mix of genius and cruelty to do so - either one seems to have worked, though both were of course better - but Nikolai quite simply has neither, or at least had the wrong mix of the two. His instrumental role in the series of horrific pogroms during his reign as well as his inability to hold the worst and best impulses of his people in check - not once, but twice - make him very difficult to respect.
Reading about the fate of the Romanovs, including their extended family, in Simon Sebag Montefiore's The Romanovs (Absolutely fantastic book, though Montefiore does have a tendency to get a bit too lovey-dovey of his subjects - which allows him to bring a lot of pathos to the whole endeavor, but does mean you need to find an a more critical source to even out his biases) is honestly one of the most memorably harrowing events I have read about in my life. The horror, brutality and tragedy of the whole thing is deeply moving.
I have worked on my thesis today, and haven't had time to write on the TL, but I might be able to get the narratives out tonight or tomorrow.
Thanks for the compliment
Nicholas used too much cruelty, and not enough genius.
But he was also a man convinced of his own god-given right to rule.
Bookmark1995
Banned
He was also a brutal, anti-semitic racist, not merely a man in a job too big for him.
I don't think either of you are wrong. He was a weak-willed naive man, completely unprepared for the task before him, who acted callously and cruely towards his subjects - particularly those among them who were Jewish - and was insistent on his own authoritarian rights to the detriment of all else.