A Darker World War II-Take III

Xen

Banned
I have been writing on this timeline for over a year, and I suppose I will continue writing it until I iron out all the kinks, so this is take III for me and this. I have read the criticisms of those who have read my previous two attempts, and enjoyed their praises. Thank you for both guys, I don’t mind criticism unless its not constructive, just lambasting all of someone’s hard work because it somehow violates your belief of what will happen as impossible is not needed, or appreciated. However if you know something that I missed or simply did not know please inform me on it, and provide sources, eventually I will get all the kinks worked out and come up with one of the absolute best timelines on this board, this is my goal, so I speak it so it be done.

PART I: A World Soaked in Blood

The point of divergence in this TTL is having the Spanish join the Axis Powers by declaring war on the United Kingdom sometime in 1940. Francisco Franco initially balked at the German offer of joining the war; Spain was still recovering from a brutal Civil War and could not afford to go to war especially against a major power like the United Kingdom. Franco’s demands for an alliance with Germany were outrageous and in the opinion of the Fuhrer absurd. It took some convincing but many top Generals in the Wermacht managed to convince Hitler to give Franco what he wanted, if Gibraltar fell, the Mediterranean Sea would be closed off to the British, giving Germany and her allies exclusive access to oil rich fields in North Africa, as well as leaving the British defenders in Egypt cut off from being resupplied, which will allow the European Axis Armies to easily take the Suez Canal, and the Middle East. After losing the Mediterranean the British would be forced to withdrawal and sue for peace. Franco was assured that even if the British took the Canary Islands, they would be returned to Spain after the war as well as gaining French Morocco and having a free hand against Portugal. Convinced that Germany will regain its former African colonies from the United Kingdom as well as gaining Persia and Iraq as new German vassals to be used as staging grounds against the next war with the Soviet Union, Hitler gave into Franco’s demands.

British intelligence however always seemed to be one step ahead of their Nazi foes, as the Germans and Spanish gathered their forces for an assault on Gibraltar, the British and her Imperial allies bolstered the cities strength and passed word onto Portuguese dictator Antonio Salazar of Spain of Germany’s plans for a future invasion. Salazar formed an alliance with the United Kingdom in which British Special Forces would secretly take up positions along the Spanish-Portuguese border. The Portuguese military was also provided older British made armaments including tanks, and fighter planes to use in the upcoming fight with the Germans and Spanish.

Obviously aware that the Portuguese are onto their secret alliance with Spain to conquer the nation, the Germans are forced to divert the troops intended for Gibraltar to Portugal, rather than laying siege to Gibraltar, a full scale invasion against Portugal takes place on the evening of March 11, 1941, a small contingency of German, Italian and Spanish troops are kept near Gibraltar to prevent the British from trying a counter attack into Andalusia. Prime Minister Salazar vows to remain in Portugal until the last invading Axis soldier in Portugal draws breath. Over the next few weeks Royal Marines seized the Canary Islands and secured the Spanish Sahara, while the RAF bombed the Axis positions near Gibraltar with devastating firepower.

At first the Portuguese and British allies win major victories defeating German Panzer forces at Braganca and Castelo Branco, unfortunately these victories are short lived, the Germans eventually overwhelmed these positions forcing the long retreat to the sea, Portuguese and British troops were withdrawn from port cities such as Porto and Aveiro, the Germans finally proclaimed final victory over Portugal and Britain at the Battle of Lisbon on June 28. The Free Portuguese and British soldiers fled to the sea in a fashion similar to Dunkirk. Battle hardened British soldiers and Free Portuguese arrived in Gibraltar to bolster the already near impenetrable defenses of the city. Portuguese Prime Minister Salazar was killed attempting to flee Lisbon when his plane was shot down while en route to the Azores Islands by the German Luftwaffe. A “Free” Portuguese government was established in the Azores, allied with the British and protected by the Royal Navy.

The Axis turned their attention to Gibraltar hoping their plans of conquering the rock, though delayed could still succeed. Fortunately most of the civilians had long been evacuated; the elderly, women and children were placed in refugee camps in British occupied Spanish Sahara. The city was defended by soldiers of Britain, ANZAC, Canada, South Africa, Free France, Free Poland, Free Portugal, and Republican veterans of the Spanish Civil War. The siege of Gibraltar began on July 2, 1941 and lasted until September 18, 1941; the city never fell, for the first time since the war began Hitler’s war machine had failed. The great victory of Gibraltar bolstered morale in the United Kingdom with Winston Churchill giving the highest praises to the guardians of the city. The battle also caught the hearts and minds of millions of Americans across the pond as well with the movie Gibraltar being released in late 1942 starring Ronald Reagan as a leader of a small group of American’s who helped defend the city calling themselves the Roosevelt Brigade.

Hitler changed his focus from capturing the British stronghold in Gibraltar to containing the British to the Straights, but denying them access to the Mediterranean. Much to his frustration and disappointment he would have to delay his offensive into Russia another year to avoid being caught in the Russian winter. Forced Jewish and British POW labor extended the Atlantic Wall across the coast of the Bay of Biscay. In September 1941 the British began their invasion of the Balearic Islands, taking complete control of them by mid-November. As winter set in, little action in the war in Europe occurred.

On the Chinese Front the war had stalemated by 1941, with Japan controlling much of northern and central China, the Kuomintang retreated to the interior and set up a provisional capital at Chungking while the Chinese Communists retained control of Shaanxi. Japanese aggression against the retreating Chinese Army was constantly stalled by the terrain in southwestern China. Finally in an attempt to discourage the Japanese from making any further incursions into China, the United States, United Kingdom and the exiled Dutch government (which retained the Dutch East Indies) stopped selling oil and steel to Japan. The Japanese government took this as an act of aggression, without these resources, Japan’s war efforts would have to cease.

On December 7, 1941 Japan launched a surprise attack on the US Naval Base at Pearl Harbor, the following day Japan invaded Hong Kong, Macau, Shanghai, and the Philippines. The United States; and United Kingdom declared war on the Empire of Japan. President Franklin Roosevelt wished to enter the fray in Europe by declaring war on Nazi Germany, he knew he could not get the measure passed through Congress where an overwhelming majority voted to declare war on Japan, and increase its productivity and sells to the United Kingdom and allies. For his part, Adolf Hitler wished for war against the United States but knew such a war could prove disastrous for his planned invasion of the USSR, he would have to wait. The United States had committed itself fully to winning the war in the Pacific and even allowed itself to be allied with the British in the war against Japan.

The Japanese continued the offensive into the spring of 1942, using Vichy Indochina as a base against Malaysia. Singapore fell to Japan in February 1942, and much of the Dutch East Indies was occupied by the beginning of March. In the Philippines US and Filipino forces put up a fierce resistance until the beginning of May when over 80,000 surrendered and were forced on the Baton Death March. General Douglas MacArthur had been relocated from the Philippines to Australia quipping “I shall return.”

As Japan expanded its Empire across the Pacific, the Wermacht began its invasion of the Soviet Union; Stalin had been convinced the German troops amassing at his border were intended to be used in an invasion of the United Kingdom, German spies infiltrating the Soviet Intelligence convincing the already paranoid Stalin many of his top generals were plotting a coup d'état. During the winter of 1941-42 the Red Army suffered through yet another purge of its brightest and best high ranking officers. Unprepared and poorly led the Red Army was overwhelmed by the Germans in the late spring offensive, culminating in the great battle of Moscow. Believing the only person who could save the capital (not to mention himself) Joseph Stalin assumed direct control of the city’s defenses. Important positions were poorly defended, allowing the Germans to take the city. When it became clear the battle was lost, Stalin attempted to flee from the advancing German lines. His speeding vehicle flipped attempting to take a sharp turn, killing the Soviet dictator. A month to the day after Moscow fell, Leningrad shared its fate. The Red Army had begun to melt like snow before the sun. Fearing Hitler would gain access to the oil fields of the Caucasus the RAF destroyed them rather than having them used against their armies. Pockets of Russian resistance sprang up across the country against the brutal treatment received by the German occupiers. The final nail in the grave of the old Soviet Union culminated in Stalingrad when the last vestiges of the Red Army were annihilated by the Wermacht, to add insult to injury; the Germans renamed the city Hitlersburg, after the Fuhrer.

The tide of war in the Pacific began to turn in June 1942; the United States achieved a major victory over the Empire of Japan at the Battle of Midway sinking four Japanese aircraft carriers. With major American victories at the Battle of Coral Sea and Midway, the Pacific allies began the New Guinea campaign with major operations in the Kokoda Track campaign, the Battle of Milne Bay and the Battle of Buna-Gona. The entire might of the US military and most of its industry was being thrusted upon the Japanese who could not withstand its continuous assault.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Hitler planned to claim Iraq and Iran’s oilfields for Germany, and to seize control of the Suez Canal. With tensions between Germany and the United States rising, many in the Wermacht believed a knock out blow to the United Kingdom could end the war in Europe before the US could really get involved and possibly hamper a favorable peace for Germany. German High Command began to revisit the plans for Operation Sealion, hoping a successful landing would scare the British populace into forcing the government to sue for peace, and keep the United States out of European affairs.
 
Why do the Germans take three months to take Portugal? They were much faster in Greece, which isn't bigger than Portugal and more mountainous, thus easier to defend.

Is Gibraltar really untakable?

And what happens to other British possessions, like Malta and Cyprus?
 
I was going to PM you this, but as the thread is sitting here in all itrs glory, I'll put my comments here. I apologise if they're a bit note-like, but that's due to their origins; any negative impact of this is to be considered against the fact that what I am not commenting on seems fine, and interesting :)

Interesting that Salazar is indeed Prime Minister, at least according to Wiki's translation of 'President of the Council of Ministers'. I had always assumed he was President at this juncture. I see from Wiki on Carmona that HE was president but was become a merely ceremonial role by this time. Intriguing !

When the RAF are bombing the Axis positions near Gibraltar where are they flying out from ? I'm not sure they would have the range from the Canaries, though I guess they could be operating from advanced bases in those parts of Portugal not yet over-run by the Axis ? I think they did this in Greece in OTL

With regard to the 'long retreat to the sea' I guess you mean long in time, since retreating to the sea in Portugal would not normally take that long, seeing its geography.

I like the Portuguese government in exile. I was trying to remember where Maria di Gloria's was established when Miguel seized the throne in the 1830s, and according to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_II_of_Portugal
it was indeed in the Azores.

Gibraltar is quite a small city and its citizens are British citizens so if there was a civilian evacuation I would expect them to go to Devon, or somewhere like that, not to very scary sounding refugee camps in Spanish Sahara. I know its only a detail

Regarding the extra year's delay to Barbarossa this was what Stalin expected, so this makes sense. I am wondering what is going on in Greece, though, as this was a vital interest of Hitler's, and he definitely wanted to take control of Salonika.

I'm a bit worried about an Atlantic Wall at this early date as the British do not have the power alone to invade continental Europe, and it seems an awful lot of work to do in this time period.

Regarding Hitler and the Tri-Partite Pact, I believe that Hitler expected Japan to declare war on the USSR in return for Germany's declaration of war on the USA. With no Barbarossa underway at the time of Pearl Harbour you have actually made good strategic sense of Germany remaining neutral against the US.

Another Soviet army purge doesn't seem very likely. Even before Barbarossa, Stalin was actually freeing some of those he had earlier sent to the Gulags to try to get enough men trained in operational command back into positions of responsibility. I believe some disastrous wargames had helped him to this view, for a start. Gabriel Gorodetsky's "Grand Delusion" is a very good book on this subject

The RAF bombing raid on the Caucasus probably compromises Turkish neutrality. Britain and France did indeed have plans in 1940 to bomb Baku as an option, but when the Turks learned of these they were furious and very worried. If the British now go ahead and carry out the raid, its likely Stalin will believe it has been done with Turkish complicity. Of course, with the USSR collapsing it won't matter, but what will matter is whether Hitler believes the Turks complicit in the British actions, when things could get very difficult for the Turks. If you do indeed have the Greece campaign go according to OTL then Germany occupies a buffer zone according to maps I've seen between Turkish and Bulgarian Thrace. Add to this Bulgaria in the Axis, and the German base at Salonika and the Turks are pretty much exposed to Hitler's anger if he accuses them of trying to do a 'Yugoslavia' and play both ends against the middle.

For Montgomery and Patton to be in their positions of power something needs to have happened to those in line before them, either defeats and posting away for Monty's and possibly deaths for Patton's, else why does he emerge so senior so early ?

I'd be very surprised if the French fleet simply managed to sail away from Toulon. I think you have this in 1943, and I would be pretty sure that the Luftwaffe would make a concerted effort to stop them. If you remember the 'Roma' you can see an idea of what might happen. I would think at least the slower ships would have to run the gauntlet of Luftwaffe bombing.

What is USCT ?

I see Mark Clark - is this the guy who in OTL went on to lead the war in Korea for a bit ?


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Xen

Banned
Thanks for the comments fellows, now I'll add my replies to this.

Max:
I had Portugal taking longer because I believe it will be easier for the British to reinforce, then add to that the Spanish Army probably couldnt take over the Vatican. Okay a bit overboard, but Spain is going to make Italy look like a well organized, cohesive fighting machine. However the Spaniards will accel in guerilla warfare. Plus the Germans in Spain are prepared to fight in Gibraltar, not Portugal.

As far as taking Gibraltar or not, I did the flip a coin thing, heads the Germans take it, tails the British hold it. Either way is plausible, and neither way is a guarantee.

Malta will probably fall to the Italians at this point, Cyprus is safe for now.

Grey Wolf:
I had the RAF flying out of bases from occupied Spanish Sahara, build a make shift airfield there like the US and Japan did in the Pacific.

Yeah the long retreat was in days more so in miles though it probably felt like a hell of a long way off to the retreaters. Oh and I know you will like this one, the monarchists play a significant role in the Portuguese resistance and the Portuguese Free Government in Exile.

Greece is going per OTL, with less British aid, more of that is going to Portugal and Gibraltar to keep the Mediterranean open. And point taken about the Atlantic Wall, not just as of yet.

As for Stalin and the purges, I was just playing on Uncle Joe's paranoia, German spies are able to infiltrate Soviet intelligence and plant evidence that many leading officers were plotting a coup d'etat in light of their fears of a German invasion and their uneaseness of the Soviet-Nazi alliance, and the direction Stalin's leadership was taking them. He might still set some of the officers free from the Gulags, but he could send a few more that way too, kind of a trade off. We'll release 8 Generals and sent 10 to the Gulags. The Nazi's could probably be able to stroke ol Joes ego too. The Wermacht hold's Stalin's leadership abilities, etc. In any regard the Red Army is in poor condition when the Nazi's attack, and fares worse than OTL.

I do want the Turks to be stuck in between a rock and a hard place, one way or the other they are going to be drug into the war kicking and screaming, and will be forced to eventually choose sides either way its not pretty for the Turks. At this point the Germans look like they will win and can offer the Turks great promises such as building a massive Turkish Empire stretching from Anatolia to Uighuristan. However there is great doubt if the Germans can sustain a prolonged war, and there is plenty of conflict of interest, the Germans have a tendency to take charge and not relinquish power.

Of course the UK-US could invade Persia like the UK and USSR did in OTL, the US could always justify it by claiming it is to protect Persian oil needed in the war in the Pacific. So the RAF could bomb the Russian oilfields from Iran.

I'll address things like the French Fleet from Toulon, and Mark Clark later when I get those posts up. The USCT means the United States Colored Troops, all black units within the US Army and I believe the Marine Corps as well. They will play a signifcant role in the war.
 
German spies are able to infiltrate Soviet intelligence
Germans intelligence could hardly run a bath.

It is practically impossible for the Soviets to do as bad as OTL under any circumstances. They will be better trained, better led, considerably better equipped and in better positions.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Another Soviet army purge doesn't seem very likely. Even before Barbarossa, Stalin was actually freeing some of those he had earlier sent to the Gulags to try to get enough men trained in operational command back into positions of responsibility. I believe some disastrous wargames had helped him to this view, for a start. Gabriel Gorodetsky's "Grand Delusion" is a very good book on this subject
Agree, take Rokossovsky, one of the Soviets more talented officers for example;

he was arrested in '37 (perhaps something to do with his Polish heritage), beaten up pretty badly (lost a lot of teeth, broken ribs etc), but released and revived (he got new metal teeth :D to replace his missing ones) in spring '40.
It wasn't untill '45 that he was spirited away from the assault on Berlin, to be replaced by Zhukov.
Don't forget, Rokossovsky didn't agree with Stalin on more than one occasion.


Of course the UK-US could invade Persia like the UK and USSR did in OTL, the US could always justify it by claiming it is to protect Persian oil needed in the war in the Pacific. So the RAF could bomb the Russian oilfields from Iran.
They could definitely do that, IRL the Americans "defended" Suriname (Dutch colony with valuable bauxiet) prior to America's entry into the war.
They also occupied Iceland and Greenland after Denmark fell (I & G were Danish possessions).

But the Allies have all the oil they could ever need for WWII being produced in the continental USA. It's not untill after '45 that the USA needed to import oil.

About Gibraltar;
I don't argue that it's definitely a hard place to take, but it's also small. I don't think you can station divisions there and still have the room to withdraw them into the bunkers and tunnels of Gibraltar during bombardments etc.
If the Germans don't start Barbarossa untill '42, then they have some spare siege-guns which they could use to bombard the Rock.
IRL they managed to drag these guns to Sevastopol so the Germans should be able to overcome the crappy infrastructure of Spain.

Losing Gibraltar won't hurt the British as bad as you think; most convoys to Egypt already went around Africa.
Those ships were unloaded somewhere around Suez and those supplies were then moved by rail further West.
So even without Malta and Gibraltar the British still have an easier supplychain than the Axis in North Africa.
Untill the Axis takes Alexandria, they have only enough ports to supply 6 motorized divisions in N-Africa and that's without taking into account the losses those convoys will still have in the Med.

I however see one problem; the militaries of both Spain and Turkey are in no way ready for WWII, even less than the Italians were. Spain especially is torn apart from years of civil war.
I don't think the Spanish can stop an Allied (or even a solo British) amphibious landing. Since Spain has a lot of mines with rare metals which the Germans need, they're definitely a nice target for the Allies.
 
Last edited:

Xen

Banned
German spies are able to infiltrate Soviet intelligence
Germans intelligence could hardly run a bath.

It is practically impossible for the Soviets to do as bad as OTL under any circumstances. They will be better trained, better led, considerably better equipped and in better positions.

True but the Soviet intelligence wasn't much better either, the troops that were to participate in Operation Barbarossa were placed at the Russian border, the Germans informed the Soviet government the troops placed at the border were for an invasion of the UK, but they were being placed at the border of the USSR so the British would think they are about to invade the Soviet Union. Hook, line and sinker! The Soviets fell for it.

And they could do worse than OTL, they could break down altogether.
 
German spies are able to infiltrate Soviet intelligence

True but the Soviet intelligence wasn't much better either, the troops that were to participate in Operation Barbarossa were placed at the Russian border, the Germans informed the Soviet government the troops placed at the border were for an invasion of the UK, but they were being placed at the border of the USSR so the British would think they are about to invade the Soviet Union. Hook, line and sinker! The Soviets fell for it.

And they could do worse than OTL, they could break down altogether.

Soviet intelligence gathered a vast amount of evidence demonstrating that the Germans were going to attack, all of which Stalin put in his safe and ignored because he expected it the next year and didn't want to face a highly unpalatable truth.

The next year his reaction is going to be quite different, he has now prepared for the invasion and can make dispositions to meet it without accusations of provocation.
 
Germany wasn't prepared for Yugoslavia either, hadn't even a plan ready to invade, but they still overwhelmed it in 17 days. They'd need some time to transport troops there, but they won't need many. And even if the Spanish army isn't great, neither are the Portuguese, and the Spaniards have experience from a recent war. Maybe the Germans even could do what they couldn't in Dunkirk.
 
...German High Command began to revisit the plans for Operation Sealion, hoping a successful landing would scare the British populace into forcing the government to sue for peace...

I've noticed this mentioned several times here and also in OTL history and it got me wondering if the German's ever had plans or even the confidence that they could inflict a military defeat on the UK.
 
Grey Wolf has already mentioned the political fallout from an Allied attack on Soviet Caucusus oil fields (even if the SU ceases to exist, thanks to the Germans) but the idea that the aircraft that were earmarked for this - British Blenheim, Wellesley and French Marylands could do anything but scratch the facilities is laughable.

There is a very good chapter on this in 'Target,: Hitler's Oil' by Ronald C Cooke and Roy Conners Nesbit
 
Even if the soviets are better prepared in war materials for 1942,it does not mean they would do any better against the initial stages of the German Blitzkrieg.Soviet High command had no time for the doctrine of strategic defence when the Germans panzers rolled over the Soviet frontiers in 1941 in OTL.The Red armys preferred counter-measure was to attack where and when it could,which lead to appalling Russian losses as the Germans drove deeper into the Soviet Union.Eventually the Red army learned the virtues of defence in OTL,but only after suffering horrible losses in 1941/42.
So it really does not matter when the Germans attack as Soviet doctrine invites envelopment and destruction of the border armies.Soviets will only learn defence tactics through combat experience.
The only way the soviets can escape the devastation of their border forces is by attacking the Third Reich first.However,Stalin would never launch a pre-emptive invaision because he feared that it could unite Britain/Germany against the Soviet union.
Would the Germans build their own strategic bombers now that they have time and resources?Would faster advances in U-boat tech come about as the naval battles to strangle the brits increase?
Anyway,interesting TL-should lead to some unusual campaign theatres for the allies and axis to battle it out on.
 
Solving The Soviet Problem

Solving The Soviet Problem

Sorry I didn't post all the details, notes and references on Tuesday but I didn't know you were going to put the timeline in the forum and thought we'd be discussing it several days over. I've been thinking of ways of reconciling some of my concerns, and in a way explaining them away works best when convincing.

With Hitler presumably involved in Portugal AT THE SAME TIME as in Greece, Yugoslavia and Egypt, then Zhukov and Timoshenko's increasingly frantic efforts to get the Red Army ready to face a June attack are actually going to be a mite reduced, but not significantly enough to derail what comes below.

At the same time as this, Stalin is going to be shown to have been proven correct in his belief that the Germans can't attack for another year. If we couple in his discovery of the various ways that the army leadership tried to circumvent his authority in late Spring and encourage local commanders to get within an ace of war readiness despite Stalin's instructions to the contrary, you might even get the purge you require.

Stalin in June 1941 told Zhukov
"If you're going to provoke the Germans on the frontier by moving troops there without our permission, then heads will roll, mark my words"

It won't be a purge of the officer corps, because Stalin was already working to remedy the effects of the previous one - i.e. in May 1941 4000 officers were released from gulags, including Rokosovsky. But it will be a purge of the very top - removing Zhukov and Timoshenko. As with the previous sacking of Meretsekov earlier in 1941 its not fatal to those removed (Meretsekov went on to be given command of the Northern front on the eve of war) - they get a second rate posting elsewhere, and maybe a later recall to a more senior command. Thus Zhukov might find himself back in the Far East, for example.

A few other local senior commanders might also get caught up in the fall-out - for example Kirponos of the Kiev Military District who had been working with Zhukov to ready his defences. Perhaps if you want to make things even worse for the USSR then sack Pavlov too (commander Western front) who was a big supporter of Zhukov's policy of crash mechanisation in the army. This could well result in the Red Army having less T34s than otherwise they would have done by Summer 1942.

Then you only need to work out who replaces them. Stalin is not going to pick an idiot, but he might pick a 'yes man' and in times of crisis yes-men lack initiative. For Defence Minister perhaps Generals Mekhlis or Kulik - these are described as being old comrades of Stalin, loyal, docile and servile but people he was increasingly relying on to back up his interpretation of events as Summer 1941 approached.

There had been 3 army chiefs of staff in the year to 1941, so having a 4th in the 2 years to 1942 is not going to be excessive outside of this pattern. The obvious replacement for Zhukov is perhaps the best - his deputy, Vassilevsky. After the war Vassilevsky would argue that Soviet preparations for defence ought to have been to mass EVERYTHING on the frontier. Zhukov pointed out that this would have allowed the Germans to encircle and annihilate them all - as planned as and as you require. Give Vassilevsky the job and when the war scare of 1942 comes along have him adopt THIS plan and you may well get your desired Soviet collapse.

Thus you can achieve the somewhat paradoxical balance of another year meaning that the Red Army has more and better equipment, logistics and middle-rank commanders but the high command and strategy is even WORSE and it could be all for nothing.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Soviet intelligence gathered a vast amount of evidence demonstrating that the Germans were going to attack, all of which Stalin put in his safe and ignored because he expected it the next year and didn't want to face a highly unpalatable truth.

The next year his reaction is going to be quite different, he has now prepared for the invasion and can make dispositions to meet it without accusations of provocation.

Actually, given that Stalin will be seen to have been proved right not only in his belief that the Germans would not launch an attack in 1941 but ALSO in his belief that the German build-up in 1941 was the prelude to diplomatic negotiations, he would have this second aspect strengthened by what happens.

I say this for two reasons
-1- Hitler is going to have to save face by making demands on the Soviets instead of attacking them
-2- The economic agreements of the Nazi-Soviet Pact were up for renewal/extension in August 1941 anyway, so the Germans could simply tie these two aspects together

Stalin and Molotov were so keen to AVOID war in 1941 that they would have offered the Germans vastly improved terms.

So, to their way of looking at things, it would seem that Stalin has been proved correct in his belief that Germany would not attack the USSR without an ultimatum of some kind, and that he can read their intentions.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The German Problem

The German Problem

The obvious pre-requisite for the postponement of Barbarossa by one year is that GERMAN (as opposed to Axis) forces are engaged on too many other fronts to be able to focus their efforts on the USSR. OTL Germany managed Yugoslavia, Greece and Egypt with a delay of only ONE MONTH. Thus the Iberian scenario has to greatly expand this (greatly meaning at least two more months making it impossible to launch Barbarossa during the 1941 campaign season).

April 1941 seems key to this. If Spain/Portugal erupts and ties down British forces (including those meant for Egypt) then Rommel might achieve greater success (OTL the 22nd Guards brigade under Gott stopped his advance beyond Sollum). The British will not only be denied the possibility of launching Battleaxe, they will still be on the backfoot, falling back and scrambling to erect a defensible line.

Egypt is vital, for not only does it tie up German forces, it also diverts massive British reinforcements originally intended for the Far East and prevents Japan's strategy and early victories from being derailed by butterflies. (a BR excuse if ever there was one! Butterflies on the line...)

Eden at the British Foreign Office was astounded in OTL that Hitler instead of building on the huge strategic gains of Greece, Crete and Egypt elected to open a new additional front in Russia. The delay of Barbarossa would prove his original view right.

Germany would probably get quite a lot from the delay, especially if it occurs in c May 1941. By then Stalin would give massive concessions to avoid war.

Thus the key is to make Iberia an ADDITIONAL front and one which ties up and drags in froces in sufficient numbers to delay things by two months.

A snowball effect in Egypt would allow more German units to be sucked in to the advance and compound this effect.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Hess and the Problem of Britain

Hess and the Problem of Britain

Would you still get Hess's flight to Scotland on 12th May 1941 ? This is key in keeping Stalin suspicious of British intentions and thus making his greatest fear that of being dragged into war by the British and then abandoned. From all this came his great fear of provocation, which IMHO is key to getting the USSR in the position you want it to be in by Summer 1942.

May I ask why you need the events of Iberia to be in late 1940 ? Might not a later date work better ? If the combination of Hess' flight to Britain and Rommel's victory in Egypt make Franco act, believing Britain is losing the war (Egypt is the only active land front) and preparing for surrender (Hess' flight) then Franco's OTL requirement of Spain not entering the war until the defeat of Britain was assured would seem to be met.

I realise this might derail slightly my thrust in the German thread I just posted, but 12th May is 3 days before the first (failed) British counter-attacks in Egypt on the 15th May. If Spain acts in the next couple of weeks then Rommel has a springboard to act on - counter-attack, and Hitler has a last-minute cancellation of Barbarossa that allows both -1- Stalin to punish Zhukov and Timoshenko for trying to 'provoke' a war with Germany, and -2- Hitler to replace war with an economic ultimatum to the USSR which extends the economic agreements of the Nazi-Soviet Pact beyond August 1941, makes Stalin confident in his abilities to read the Germans and gives Germany many benefits in the additional year.

Thus the end of May 1941 IMVHO seems the best time to plug in your POD, but its only an opinion :)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Sealion Redux and the Aftermath of Barbarossa

Sealion Redux and the Aftermath of Barbarossa

In June 1941 Cripps stated to Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to London, his belief that if Hitler were successful in defeating the Soviet Union he would turn with his entire might against England (sic). This ties in well for the reliability and logic of your Sealion Redux scenario.

The problem as I see it with your scenario is two-fold :-

-1- When is Barbarossa launched in 1942 ? IIRC May is optimum but if Winter 1942 is kinder than 1941 you might get away with April.

What needs to happen is Zhukov's analysis of Vassilevsky's hypothesis - that massing everything on the borders allows the Germans to encircle and annihilate it, regardless of an increase in mechanisation, armour, middle-level leadership and logistics (which latter one might ironically HELP the invader !).

But there has to be a follow-up to this. Soviet military policy had large strategic echelons subdivided into operational zones. If the first thrust of Barbarossa annihilates the first strategic echelon, and with it the bulk of the Red Army, the German army still has to deal with the Second Strategic Echelon. Even if there are far fewer cohesive frontline forces in this, the Germans must maintain the momentum. Switching forces to the West is very difficult in this situation.

For a failed Sealion I might recommend a September 1942 operation, when the campaigning season in the USSR is dying down. Forces can be dragged in from Egypt (thus putting Rommel, probably promoted to Field Marshal to lead the invasion, where you want him and also preventing too great a German success there derailing your later events)

The RAF having fought and lost in Portugal as well as Greece and worse in Egypt and with no direct US support will not be anywhere near its OTL mid 1942 revival. In addition, the war in the Far East has drawn off some of the Royal Navy. Maybe army reinforcements to stabilise Egypt have further reduced the forces available to the Far East and in consequence additional Royal Navy units have been sent there.

In addition, one assumes Germany has at least SOME use of the Spanish Fleet, especially because Franco cannot countenance a British revival after his entry into the war, he will do all he can to help defeat them for good.

The USA is still neutral. This has to be key to Hitler's gamble on Sealion. He can win the war once and for all if he knocks out Britain as the USA is not going to start a second front AFTER all its potential allies there have been defeated.

IMHO Roosevelt might well not ask for a declaration of war against Germany UNTIL the British have halted the first wave of German advance at the stoplines. I can't believe Congress would support war if it looked like Britain was about to fall. High-blown rhetoric about freedom aside, it does the USA no good to enter a lost war in addition to a very difficult one in the Pacific that they cannot know has turned for good. Its only a few days delay anyway in your TimeLine, but makes more logical sense to me.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The Allied Fightback

The Allied Fightback

I find the idea of a British attack on the Balaerics very problematic. They are well within both Spanish and French aerial range and Franco is hardly going to be caught by surprise. In addition, Gibraltar surviving under siege is a very different proposition to Gibraltar able to be used as a staging post. The Spanish and German airforce, as well as land-based artillery, would be pounding the crap out of the naval base and u-boats and Spanish torpedo vessels would make Royal Navy vessels seeking to use it run a very serious gauntlet. In addition the opposite North African shore (Spanish Morocco) is Spanish controlled and any ships coming through the Straits would face a dual gauntlet.

Having said that, I can't see why the Balaerics are necessary to the thrust of your timeline. The logical advance from Spanish Sahara and the Canaries is to occupy ALL of Morocco. Of course, this is somewhat problematic as it is Vichy, but I do think the delay of Barbarossa works in your facour here.

There were constant rumours that Vichy France was going to be brought into the Axis. After the accession of Spain and the conquest of Portugal, and with no war against the USSR , Hitler in later 1941/early 1942 is going to be concerned with the security of Western Europe of which France is the weak link, politically at least.

Allowing Vichy France to accede to the Axis would secure this front, and at the same time provide Morocco as a bulwark to Algeria/Tunisia. By doing so he of course makes Morocco the first target for the Anglo-Americans, but this is just what you need - a reason to land in North Africa in late 1942. Thus the first invasion should IMVHO just be an Anglo-American one focused on Morocco

Grey Wolf
 

Xen

Banned
Ah Grey Wolf, thank you very much for the feedback, this is what I like. Ill try to rework it, thanks
 
Top