A Czar's demise reshapes Central-Eastern Europe

PoD:
In foreign policy, Nicholas I acted as the protector of ruling legitimism and as guardian against revolution. It has often been noticed that such politicies were linked with the Metternich counter-revolutionary system; indeed, Austrian special ambassador Count Karl Ludwig von Ficquelmont was well known for his wide influence over the Czar of whom he was a close friend. His offers to suppress revolution on the European continent, trying to follow the trends of his eldest brother, Tsar Alexander I, earned him the label of gendarme of Europe. In 1825 Nicholas I was crowned and began to limit the liberties of constitutional monarchy in Congress Poland. In return, after the November Uprising broke out, in 1831 the Polish parliament deposed Nicholas as king of Poland in response to his repeated curtailment of its constitutional rights. The Tsar reacted by sending Russian troops into Poland. Nicholas crushed the rebellion, abrogated the Polish constitution, and reduced Poland to the status of a province, Privislinsky Krai, and embarked on a policy of repression towards Catholics. In the 1840s Nicholas reduced 64,000 Polish nobles to commoner status.

Polish nobles, fearing their titles, fund an assasination plot which succeeds.

OR

Prince Trubetskoy doesn't desert the Decemberist Revolt, and he called on the vast crowd of civilian on-lookers fraternizing with the rebels to join the action. The extra manpower made the grenadier squad led by Lt Nikolay Panov able to seize the Winter Palace. The Tzar could barely escape as the news of the triumph spread fast and most of the city's population joined the revolt. The news then travel to other garrisons, many of which revolted. Nicholas is deposed and a new reign begins in Russia.

Then:
1850 – After rebellious minorities have been pacified through agreements or subdued by force, Croatia is almost beaten, but Hungary is cautious about a Prussian intervention, so agrees with the new Unionist Party of Croatia to create an autonomous Croatia. From there on, the state is called Hungary-Croatia
After that, both armies continue the onslaught on the Austrians.
1851 - Hungarian War of independence succeeds, territories of the Kingdom of Hungary become indendent as Hungary.

Political directions in Hungary: assimilationists vs federationists

1853 - Crimean War – as in OTL
1859 - Second Italian War of Independence - shorter, since Austria is less powerful, but same end
1863–1864 - January Uprising - supplied by Hungary, but still fails
1864 - Second Schleswig War - no Austrian participation, same end
1866 - Austro-Prussian War – Hungary-Croatia's assistance requested by Austria. Austria and Hungary-Croatia defeated, they have to pay huge reparations to Prussia. Austria’s prestige is crushed, compromises with the Checz, Austria-Bohemia is formed in 1867
1870–1871 - Franco-Prussian War - ends with the formation of the German Empire including Austria, Dalmatia unites with Croatia within Hungary-Croatia. Western Galicia declares itself as Poland, Eastern Galicia becomes Ruthenia, Bohemia also independent.
1877-1878 - Russo-Turkish War – Hungary-Croatia sides with Russia, occupies Bosnia and annexes the parts inhabited by Croats as per the Congress of Berlin. The rest gains independence.

Internal Events:
All the lessons were there to learn.
The Austrian Empire was also a multicultural patchwork, which was opressing the people. Since the successful Hungarian revolution, it has been struggling to maintain the integrity of its remaining lands. Their influence over the German states is waning as it’s power and prestige has been sapped by their defeat. Now it merely poses a nominal opposition to Prussia, which will soon dominate the Germanic region.

The Ottoman Empire is also slowly imploding as their former subjects like Serbia and Bosnia already have quasi-autonomy within the Empire. It won’t take too long until they gain independece.

The Italian peninsula also stirs, and despite their failed rebellion in 1848, the haven’t gave up their ambition. Soon, in 1859, there is another war which results in the annexation of the Duchy of Parma, Duchy of Modena, Grand Duchy of Tuscany and the Papal Legations by the Kingdom of Sardinia, and Savoy and Nice by France.

In conclusion, at the dawn of nationalism, multi-ethnic regions cannot be controlled by force. Only lands with common language, ethnicity and culture can be untied under one banner.

Therefore, it is clear, that forceful assimilation won’t work and only will doom the country. Federalization, on the other hand, is the path to avoid disintegration.

Those who were dreaming of a 30-million-strong Hungary had clearly no way to prevail. Kossuth’s idea of the Danubean Federation was the answer for the problem. The minorities’ influence grew as more and more authority was being delegated to them. It would culminate in the realization of the Federation. But before that, the Hungarian intellectuals wanted to enlarge the Hungarian majority even further to gain larger territory in the coming federal system. Thus, they worked to connect the Székelys (Transylvanian Hungarians) with the Hungarians of the “motherland”. They focused on the Region of Kolozsvár to achieve the connection.

The main assimilation efforts had the following guidelines:
• Organize inland migrations to create small ethnic islands which are assimilated easily
• Increase the proportions of Hungarians where it is close to majorityImprove living standards mainly in Hungarian populated areas
• Bunjevci and Rusyns to be the main targets of forced assimilation, as they composited only less than 5% of the entire population

The proportions of Hungarians in Hungary (excl. Croatia) changed as following:
• 1848: 41%
• Late 1860s 54,5%
• Early 1880s 60.7%

Here are some maps of the nationalities in Hungary during the times:
Hungarians_in_Hungary_(1890).png


voros_terkep.png


This is how the realistic aim of the assimilationists could look like by the beginning of the 20th century:

Image50.gif




Main issues:

I guess that a complete federalization would only happen in case of a defeat in a war or something else that weakens Hungarian dominance within Hungary.

Would Austria fall apart and be integrated into the German Federation just beacuse of the Franco-Prussian War? Or will it be able to preserve itself?

Anything else that comes to your mind?
 
You're not going to get those independent Polish and Ruthenian states in the former Galicia. Russia will send in the troops and annex them, and neither Germany nor Hungary will intervene to stop them.

I also wonder if the Italians wouldn't do better in this scenario than you allow, but I really am not expert enough to say for sure.
 
First of all, thank you for your responses!

You're not going to get those independent Polish and Ruthenian states in the former Galicia. Russia will send in the troops and annex them, and neither Germany nor Hungary will intervene to stop them.
What if they start looking for allies immediately after declaring independence? Germany, Hungary, Sweden?

I also wonder if the Italians wouldn't do better in this scenario than you allow, but I really am not expert enough to say for sure.
Well, Italy could very well get Dalmatia in the Austria-Prussian War.

Why has Croatia joined Hungary in this TL rather than supporting the Austrians as OTL?
In OTL, there were two parites in Croatia:
  • the National Liberal Party, which wanted to create an autonomous state by working with the Habsburgs.
    and
  • the Unionist Party, which had a similar aim, but in co-operation with Hungary.
In 1848, the National Liberal Party was dominant and thus Croatia was against Hungary.
In 1867, the Unionist Party became the stronger one and this opened the way to the Croatian-Hungarian Settlement.

Now, ITTL, after hostile minorities have been pacified through agreements or subdued by force, the leaders of the rebellion can focus on Croatia. One or two key victories over Ban Jelačić's forces, and the Unionist Party could easily take control in the Sabor and send an envoy to Hungary stating their intention of surrendering and striking a settlement.
Hungary would accept, because a Croatia led by a Hungarian-friendly government would stand down and even help their cause and won't be a problem later on.
 
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