A CSA victory hypothetical

Yeah, I think Wade Hampton's probably the most likely first dictator of the CSA. With Forrest possibly serving as his Himmler. Only... competent, and smart.
 
Or Nathan Bedford Forrest, without the batshit insanity.

And, well, without the genocide. Killing slaves is...

Oh god, thinking about that just makes me sick. :eek:

It'd also be economically impossible for a Confederacy based on slavery. It'd be chopping off three arms and legs to spite their face.

Speaking of Confederates, back to the other quesiton.

How likely would Forrest run for POTCS and win? What would he govern like? Would he turn it into a dictatorship outright? What if he found himself needing to act as Commander-in-chief? What would be his battle doctrine for the army? How effective would he be as Commander-in-chief giving orders from Richmond rather than with a field command?

Same questions for Wade Hampton III.

IMHO it's unlikely he'd run, but more likely he'd lead a military putsch to prevent a civil war among Confederate whites by replacing it with a military junta. The ability to prevent that civil war would mark his legitimacy and thus enemies or no enemies is rather irrelevant.
 
That's not much of a suspension. They were on the verge of it throughout the autumn of 1862. Only McClellan's victory at Antietam gave HMG pause.

There are a lot of scenarios that work here. A British/ French intervention during the "Confederate High Tide" that OTL abated in September 1862 requires little suspension of disbelief. It would be based upon a forced negotiated settlement, and plebicites in the disputed territories would be a reasonable way to go.

Virginia - would go. The Unionists in the state were a small minority.

Missouri - would probably go. Whilst they initially resisted leaving the Union, the US military quickly pushed opinion over to secession, but the US occupied the state rather quickly after this.

Kentucky - would probably go assuming the pro-Confederate citizens don't do something stupid like boycott the election like they did in 1861 (handing Kentucky over to the Union).

Arizona etc. - likely dealt with by a demarcation line somewhere. The pre-war agreed demarcation line is a lot further north than this.

Maryland (not mentioned above) - would likely go CSA if offered the chance. Unionist west Maryland is totally outweighed by Confederate east Maryland (and especially Baltimore)

Just out of curiosity, where is the Trans-Pacific Shogunate invasion by Japan that pushes to the Rockies in your scenerio? Is it before or after the Glorious Britain comes in with their nukes and rockets? Either of those two scenerios are more plausible than Maryland, Missouri, Kentucky, or West Virginia joining the CSA post war.

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I have some particular expertise with regard to the whole Arizona issue, having researched the subject intensely for most of the past 20 years while living in Arizona. Here are my thoughts on the subject.

Arizona is interesting. There's not a really large need for Arizonans to hold slaves, and they have really been on the fringe of this conflict. Aside from Sibley's abortive campaign, there's nothing which really ties this area to the whole North/South divide, so I imagine it will stay in the Union, although, it may opt for Confederate ownership.

New Mexico Territorry (NM & AZ) - Plebisicte difficult because of logistics. If held, almost certainly USA unless there is massive vote fraud, which is possible in a disorganized wilderness territory

Not actually true. The region which was incorporated into the Confederacy as the Territory of Arizona (that region south of the 34th parallel) was heavily Southern in population and was a hotbed of secessionist sentiment even BEFORE the war. That's why Arizona's first capital as a U.S. Territory was located at Prescott rather than at the largest town in the region, Tucson, and why the New Mexico Territory was divided along east-west lines rather than north-south lines. Prescott was chosen as capital because Tucson was perceived as a secessionist stronghold. And the Territory was divided along east-west lines because the U.S. government didn't want the secessionists in Tucson and Mesilla together within the same territory.

So if the issue was put up to a vote, the former Confederate Territory would be very likely to go Confederate. The northern half of New Mexico Territory would certainly go Union, and the Confederates would probably insist on separate plebiscites as a result. They never organized a Territory of New Mexico of their own as they did for Arizona anyway, so they probably aren't going to be interested in the northern area that much.

It would mean the CSA getting a shot at the entirety of a territory from which they'd been driven out. I'm already giving them a shot at half of it.

Agreed...I doubt they'd want to incorporate the whole of New Mexico Territory anyway, since the northern half was heavily pro-Union. They'd just want to get their own territory...Arizona...back.

And why would the French allow them to establish a strong strategic base overlooking Mexico? Arizona alone is a difficult to defend strip of desert, coupled with the rest of New Mexico it is a springboard for an invasion of Sonora.

And Arizona's not? You do realize that the Confederate Territory of Arizona extended from the Texas border all the way to the Colorado River, don't you (south of the 34th parallel, which runs just a bit north of present-day Phoenix)? They wouldn't need the northern half of the old New Mexico Territory if they wanted a base from which to invade northern Mexico. The Confederate Territory of Arizona would do just fine.

Confederate Arizona: Not gonna happen. The Confederacy was soundly defeated there, and it's pretty much a worthless strip of land. If it connected to the Pacific, that would be one thing, but it would be the ass end of nowhere that nobody would really be interested in.

Arizona was not as worthless as you might think. There were productive silver and gold mines there at the time of the Civil War which would be of great value to the Confederacy. Most of the postwar mineral strikes in Arizona took place south of the 34th parallel, too. So it's definitely a place the CSA would be interested in having, if they could get it.
 
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