A Continent Asunder, an alternate World War 1

He pretty much played his own game foreign affairs and sent a contradictory message to his PM Thats big enough. He is seen as a loose cannon now in London

Politics at the time was very different to politics in the modern day; the modern-day idea that things should necessarily be decided/authorised by the man at the top simply didn't exist in the same way as it does now. The Prime Minister would probably be considered more out-of-order for taking a matter of foreign affairs into his own hands than the Foreign Secretary for acting on a matter of foreign affairs on his own initiative without consulting the Prime Minister. It was just expected that foreign ministers would do this sort of thing themselves; look at Izvolsky and Aehrenthal over the issue of the Straits. Such things as President Poincaré's personal visit to Emperor Nicholas II were very unusual, and indeed were a sign of the fact that Poincaré had deliberately arranged for incompetents to have positions so that he could have more power over the government. Indeed, when heads of state went over the heads of their foreign ministers, what they said simply didn't happen: for instance, Wilhelm II and Nicholas II agreed between themselves to have an alliance together, their respective foreign offices said (paraphrased) "No. Shut up." and the rest is history.

I'm sorry, but I don't think that it's as easy as that to get rid of a man like Sir Edward.

Fair point. I was actually thinking more about most important anti german but its a throwaway comment that didn't come out as I expected.

Alright then.

I know it was true but I'm not certain I'm right about if Germany did. I have the impression that they did but this comes from the willy-nicky letters telegrams. In one Nicholas of Russia mentions something about having no chance but to mobilise against Austria and Wilhelm's response is that if Russia does so he would have no option but to mobilise. I'm not sure if Germany knows that Russian mobilisation was an all or nothing afair but thats the impression I had.

Ah. The thing I'd note is that the thoughts of Wilhelm II were often very different to those of the German government. To give what is undoubtedly the most spectacular example, when Wilhelm II received Serbia's reply to Austria-Hungary's ultimatum he wrote that he thought the reply was a complete concession and that if he were Franz Josef (the Austro-Hungarian monarch) he wouldn't go to war, and told his government to send this to Franz Josef. They simply refused to send it; instead they issued the famous 'blank cheque'.

I am thinking that a Russia first plan might feature naval landings up and down the baltic sea and on the coast of Finland supported by battleship gun fire. Am doing research to see how feasible it is. There will also be something of a cat and mouse game at the demilitarised channel with German forces prodding and British Fleet deployments scaring them off. Also with Norwegian neutrality they will refuse German ships coaling rights.

I honestly have very little knowledge of warfare in this era; what little I do have is centred on its diplomatic ramifications (e.g. the German ships' low fuel confining them to the North Sea and making it blatantly obvious who they were targeted against, and the huge expense to the UK of maintaining troops in India and the consequent pressure to be friendly with Russia to avoid the expense). I'll leave this to the others.

Defender of small nations, sure, a more cynical person might suggest that Britain is looking for friends in the post war period. After all France and Russia won't be running for best friends.

This is wise in a way that might perhaps not have been easily foreseen, because IOTL there were concerns expressed by British politicians that if they didn't enter the war then either Germany and Austria-Hungary would win, in which case they would establish a new hegemony over Europe that wouldn't include the UK, or France and Russia would win, in which case they would be angry at the UK for abandoning them. Given that evidence, it definitely makes sense that the UK would act to get as many new friends as possible.

Can you really see the Ottomans remaining neutral when Russian blood is in the water?

Depends on the circumstance, but unless Russia is obviously doing very badly then they might well stay neutral. Declaring war on Russia isn't like joining a turkey shoot, it's a risk; the Ottomans will, I agree, take the risk if the reward is sufficient, but it might not do. IOTL, unless I've misremembered, it took British high-handedness to drive the Ottomans from a position of opportunistic de facto neutrality to Germany's side, which suggests that Russia wasn't initially weak enough for the Ottomans to take the risk.

As for the dreadnoughts well the next update features them.

Nice!

On the matter of that next update: I really like Churchill's plan. That's a very clever way of doing things.

The arrogance and foolish decisive-battle thinking of the British naval officers—assuming that, even though they have vast superiority in battleships and therefore it would be utter folly for the Germans to engage the British battleships head-to-head, the war will take the form convenient to the UK, namely a head-to-head battleship battle—is both frustrating and exceedingly realistic.

The touch about the forsaking of German titles, and that it hasn't happened yet, is also nicely done (though 'Lord Baron' isn't a title that would be used; you wouldn't say both titles). The reference to the South American dreadnought race is also nice, as is the fact that "As You Know, Bob" (the tendency for experienced professionals to mysteriously relate the basics of their topic even though they would all know it, just because the audience doesn't know and it's a cheap method of exposition) is fairly minimal. (The only place where that's somewhat present is the reeling-off of the precise number of battleships and battlecruisers in the British and German fleets; shipbuilding was so publicised that lots of ordinary people, let alone naval officers, would already know—but in most of the update, such as the comment on crossing the T, "As You Know, Bob" is wonderfully absent.)

I ought to let you know that it is genuinely nice to read a TL written by someone so clearly knowledgeable about what they're talking about. I wouldn't mention such little issues as I have been if there were any major problems to talk about.
 
Depends on the circumstance, but unless Russia is obviously doing very badly then they might well stay neutral. Declaring war on Russia isn't like joining a turkey shoot, it's a risk; the Ottomans will, I agree, take the risk if the reward is sufficient, but it might not do. IOTL, unless I've misremembered, it took British high-handedness to drive the Ottomans from a position of opportunistic de facto neutrality to Germany's side, which suggests that Russia wasn't initially weak enough for the Ottomans to take the risk.

From what I can tell this is the sequence of events IOTL

Germany and the OE government signed an alliance shortly before the July crisis (but the Sultan didn't sign).

OE declared neutrality, telling the Germans that they were preparing for war.

The incident with the Dreadnoughts happened.

Germany (with no friendly port for their ships) donated their Mediterranean squadron to Turkey (One battlecruiser and one light cruiser), the ships remained fully staffed by Kaiser Marine crew and officers.

The new Turkish ships sailed out and shelled the Russian coast.

The Ottoman government refused Anglo/Russian demands to expel a German military mission and inter the German donated and crewed vessels in a neutral country.


On the matter of that next update: I really like Churchill's plan. That's a very clever way of doing things.

The arrogance and foolish decisive-battle thinking of the British naval officers—assuming that, even though they have vast superiority in battleships and therefore it would be utter folly for the Germans to engage the British battleships head-to-head, the war will take the form convenient to the UK, namely a head-to-head battleship battle—is both frustrating and exceedingly realistic.

Churchill's dream sequence for the battle is being posted soon, not a part of the time line just some fun background.

The touch about the forsaking of German titles, and that it hasn't happened yet, is also nicely done (though 'Lord Baron' isn't a title that would be used; you wouldn't say both titles). The reference to the South American dreadnought race is also nice, as is the fact that "As You Know, Bob" (the tendency for experienced professionals to mysteriously relate the basics of their topic even though they would all know it, just because the audience doesn't know and it's a cheap method of exposition) is fairly minimal. (The only place where that's somewhat present is the reeling-off of the precise number of battleships and battlecruisers in the British and German fleets; shipbuilding was so publicised that lots of ordinary people, let alone naval officers, would already know—but in most of the update, such as the comment on crossing the T, "As You Know, Bob" is wonderfully absent.)

Meant to see retired Armiral of the Fleet and First Sea Lord, Baron Fisher, didn't mean Lord Baron. Fair point on the slight over exposition, I had mentioned earlier that the German building program was less than IOTL so I felt I should show that. Probably not the right setting but still I've seen some very basic things talked about by experienced professionals.

I ought to let you know that it is genuinely nice to read a TL written by someone so clearly knowledgeable about what they're talking about. I wouldn't mention such little issues as I have been if there were any major problems to talk about.
I couldn't have put it better myself;)
aw thanks you guys are making me blush
 
Not a real update - Churchill Dream Sequence; This timeline is not a Britwank -

Not a real update - Churchill Dream Sequence; This timeline is not a Britwank -


Churchill strode into number 10 looking proud as punch walking upto the Prime Minister's secretary, "I need to speak to him its urgent."

The secretary poked his head into the Prime Minister's private office before returning "The Prime Minister will see you now."

Churchill strode into his future office.

"Well Asquith, we have some good news and some bad news."

Asquith nodded "that's always the way, the bad news if you please."

Churchill smiled, "The bad news is that we are at war with Germany."

Asquith shook his head and groaned, he had placed his bets on Peace and this would see the end of his government, he wasn't sure whether Churchill or Grey would be the Prime Minister but it wouldn't be him. Suddenly he shook his head, Churchhill had said that there was good news."There is good news."

Churchill nodded, "The entire Kaisermarine with the exception of some light units have been sunk."

Asquith was shocked, "How!!"

Churchill smiled, "Well thats a story.

At 9:41 this morning scout planes spotted the entire Kaisermarine steaming toward the channell. The home fleetleft port to cut them off ahead while the Battlecruiser squadron supplemented by two of the Queen Elizabeth class battleships sailed to cut off any retreat.

Contact was made at 13:15 The home fleet was in position to meet the lead elements of the Kaisermarine with a full broadside.

Warning shots were fired and signals were sent but the Kaisermarine continued steaming in hope that we would not enforce out neutrality zone.

In effect they were crossing the tee. The battlefleet opened fired and within a few shots had range correctly configured. The Kaisermarine attempted to form a battleline. Within an hour six battleships and two battlecruisers representing fully half of the Kaisermarine capital ships were crippled while three more battleships and another battlecruiser had sank with minimal damage suffered by the home fleet. The remainder of the Kaisermarine broke off and fled while the damaged ships attempted to delay and persuit.

By this time the battlecruiser squadron had taken up position in the Kaisermarine's line of retreat. The Kriegsmarine crossed the battlecruiser's tee and faced the full weight of the battlecruiser squadrons broadside. Battleships from the home fleet, havng dispatched the crippled vessels of the Kaisermarine joined the engagements as the last German capital ships sank. The remainder of the lighter units were destroyed in detail or surrendered."

Asquith shook his head, "I presume that before the week is out it will be Prime Minister Churchill, congratulations on your victory."
 
That isn't a wank, it's just what would happen if the Germans were stupid enough to try and run the channel. I don't think they will be.
 
That isn't a wank, it's just what would happen if the Germans were stupid enough to try and run the channel. I don't think they will be.

Would their being stupid enough to run the channel count as wank material? It correlates, at least.
 
At 9:41 this morning scout planes spotted the entire Kaisermarine steaming toward the channell. The home fleetleft port to cut them off ahead while the Battlecruiser squadron supplemented by two of the Queen Elizabeth class battleships sailed to cut off any retreat.

The Queen Elizabeth class battleships were completed until December 1914 at the earliest.
 
That isn't a wank, it's just what would happen if the Germans were stupid enough to try and run the channel. I don't think they will be.

I sort of agree and sort of disagree. I strongly doubt that they'd possibly try something like this, but some kind of covert attempt, e.g. to run through the Channel with submarines because it's much quicker and easier than going all the way around the British Isles, would be very risky but not so utterly suicidal as in the Churchill dream-sequence scenario.

Would their being stupid enough to run the channel count as wank material?

Yes. The German numerical disadvantage was truly magnificent in scope (and when one notes that the tendency to discount pre-dreadnought battleships completely when in conflict with dreadnoughts was a product of the Battle of Jutland, it becomes clear that the numerical imbalance as perceived at the time would have been even greater than what we perceive it to have been nowadays). Any attempt at a direct venture straight towards the centre of British power would be rightly considered suicidal. IOTL the Germans' naval strategy was based on the idea that they couldn't win that sort of engagement—not that it was difficult for them to win but they'd give it a go, that they weren't even going to try—so they had to try other options, most importantly trying to split up the British fleet and defeat part of it in order to decrease its numbers (a plan which failed at the Battle of Jutland IOTL because the British, though very incompetent, weren't incompetent enough for it to work).
 
Just reading back through this again. We have a lot of attempts at alternate WWI threads on this forum and I have to say that this looks like one of the more intellectually sophisticated ones I have seen.
 
Just caught up with all that has been posted. I can not add anything about the POD, but I can say that I like all that you have written so far. It will be interesting to see how France reacts to all this, how much US interests will go along with the peace, and if Germany is not doing an embargo on France, will France try to place one of Germany? How well will Germany's colonies perform against French invasions? SW Africa and Tanganyika are pretty far away from French holdings. Will Egypt/Britain allow Central Powers or French ships to go through the Suez Canal even though they are neutral?

Lots of questions and only updates and time will reveal what will happen ITTL. Keep up the good work.
 
Would their being stupid enough to run the channel count as wank material? It correlates, at least.

No, the Germans would not have been that stupid. The Germans were at a loss when the British didn't sortie out for a climatic major naval battle but withdrew to distant blockade. They would have the example of Tsushima to remind them that any naval action is secondary to that which the army does.
 
Within an hour six battleships and two battlecruisers representing fully half of the Kaisermarine (better Kaiserliche Marine or Hochseeflotte) capital ships were crippled while three more battleships and another battlecruiser had sank with minimal damage suffered by the home fleet.

Is IMO a wank of the RN as the problems of ammo handling and quality are well known.
But for Churchill to dream it, it is acceptable as the quality of either side is immaterial than.
 
Warships in this era are very expensive, and if the Germans are building three battleships less, then all of that is pouring into the army. I think that the difference there would be greater than what you described.
 
I am wondering what the exact extent of the British guaratees toward Frnce are?

How far is the term "channel" meant? North of the straits of Dover the Hochseeflotte should have no problem - so I assume that the Strait of dover is something that "sould not be crossed by both warring nations.

Brest was the main French base in the Atlantic. (and I assume that the Brits can't deny the French the use of their own coastal waters).

While I doubt that the Germans will sail their battlefleet around Britain the Battlecruisers might be another thing.

The French/Germans had (OTL)

dreadnought battleships: 4/15
Battlecruisers: 0/4
pre-dreadnought battleships: 20/22
armoured cruisers: 22/9
protected cruisers: 12/41
destroyers: 84/149
submarines: 55/28

That does not seem to be a bad relation, but if you count in the allies (Russia and Austria Hungary) the French situation becomes worse:

The Russians/Austrians had (OTL)

dreadnought battleships: 0/3
Battlecruisers: 0/0
pre-dreadnought battleships: 12/12
armoured cruisers: 6/3
protected cruisers: 8/9
destroyers: 103/33
submarines: 28/6

The Problem is that the Russians had part of their fleet in the Black sea where they are bottled up - and while the Hochseeflottes dreadnoughts are in Kiel/Wilhelmshaven the Russians are also bottled up in the Baltic sea.

Austrai OTOH can roam the MED as long Italy is at least neutral - which forces France to decide where to put the fleet (OTL the French had most ships in the med as Britain contained the Hochseeflotte).

Concerning Goeben - : it had a friendly port in the med even OTL (The ships were actually in the Adriatic at the time, but Souchon didn't want to get stuck in the Adriatic, so he ledt, recoaled in MEssina and hit the French - he will be able to do this here too, but this time he won't be forced to retreat as the Brits are still out. HE can attack and retreat to Austria as the French won#t have the force to close the straits of Otranto.
 
Just to let you know I have been checking out timelines on this site for a few years--but am enjoying yours so much I actually registeredso I could post also....Keep up the good work
 
The Queen Elizabeth class battleships were completed until December 1914 at the earliest.

Dream sequence of Churchill not a serious post.

Warships in this era are very expensive, and if the Germans are building three battleships less, then all of that is pouring into the army. I think that the difference there would be greater than what you described.

Maybe but getting a large group of railway engineers with a suitable amount of rolling stock and track (as replacements) to supply an eastern front isnt cheap either. There is also some more fortifying done on the western front.

Anyway the best sources for battleship costs around this era that I can find is £1.5 million to £2 million pounds which at the time is 30 to 40 million marks. A private in the german army was paid .7 marks a day while senior ncos were paid up to 5 marks a day.

Lets say that any new soldiers are all privates. Thats one years pays for 150,000 men, not cost any equipment or costs of supplying them.

Given that 13,000,000 men fought in world war 1 for Germany thats actually a drop in the ocean.

So instead I took the approach that the scale back in naval spending would be changed entirely for what the German army needed to operate in the East.

I am wondering what the exact extent of the British guaratees toward Frnce are?

How far is the term "channel" meant? North of the straits of Dover the Hochseeflotte should have no problem - so I assume that the Strait of dover is something that "sould not be crossed by both warring nations.

Brest was the main French base in the Atlantic. (and I assume that the Brits can't deny the French the use of their own coastal waters).

While I doubt that the Germans will sail their battlefleet around Britain the Battlecruisers might be another thing.

The French/Germans had (OTL)

dreadnought battleships: 4/15
Battlecruisers: 0/4
pre-dreadnought battleships: 20/22
armoured cruisers: 22/9
protected cruisers: 12/41
destroyers: 84/149
submarines: 55/28

That does not seem to be a bad relation, but if you count in the allies (Russia and Austria Hungary) the French situation becomes worse:

The Russians/Austrians had (OTL)

dreadnought battleships: 0/3
Battlecruisers: 0/0
pre-dreadnought battleships: 12/12
armoured cruisers: 6/3
protected cruisers: 8/9
destroyers: 103/33
submarines: 28/6

The Problem is that the Russians had part of their fleet in the Black sea where they are bottled up - and while the Hochseeflottes dreadnoughts are in Kiel/Wilhelmshaven the Russians are also bottled up in the Baltic sea.

The Russians are bottled up in the Black Sea and the Baltic. France will probably push Britain to expand the naval exclusion zone (I'm trying out different names for it) as large as possible seeing it as Britain defending France's back. Lets say that the definition of the zone will be subject to some probing from both sides and that British patrols will patrol outside the zone which causes some abiguity.

Austrai OTOH can roam the MED as long Italy is at least neutral - which forces France to decide where to put the fleet (OTL the French had most ships in the med as Britain contained the Hochseeflotte).

Concerning Goeben - : it had a friendly port in the med even OTL (The ships were actually in the Adriatic at the time, but Souchon didn't want to get stuck in the Adriatic, so he ledt, recoaled in MEssina and hit the French - he will be able to do this here too, but this time he won't be forced to retreat as the Brits are still out. HE can attack and retreat to Austria as the French won#t have the force to close the straits of Otranto.

The question is how much will France trust a British naval zone. If they trust it and think this keeps the HSF from them than they can concentrate in the Med as OTL, but can they trust it.

I understand what you mean about Goeben having a friendly port in the med, I meant a friendly port where they won't be trapped.

Thanks to all who have commented so far.
 
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