A Confederate Containment Policy

Had the CSA managed to break away, I can't help but think the United States would be inclined towards pursuing some sort of containment policy with regards to the Confederacy.

The CSA is a threat to the Union so long as it has free access to the wider world and thus can serve as a launching pad for foreigners to challenge the United States. Meanwhile the CSA would have a number of routes in which it would seek its own expansion - Vidaurri's Nuevo Leone and Coahuila, Spanish Cuba and Puerto Rico, and perhaps the Dominican Republic (Baez showed he had no issue selling his nation to slavers). Southerners pre-war showed they had an inclination for expansion southwards.

Folks like Hamilton Fish and William H Seward, meanwhile, were ardent expansionists.

The United States, in my view, would likely pursue a post-war equivalent to Scott's Great Snake. Supporting Mexico city against Vidaurri or wooing Vidaurri into being an American friend. Grabbing the DR for itself before the Confederates could get it. Purchasing the Danish West Indies to gain a crucial naval base. Either liberating Cuba and PR or conquering the islands for itself. The CSA would create a geopolitical need for actions that OTL the US needn't take.

Thoughts?
 
It's hard to tell if the Union will use the CSA as a pariah to enforce influence in the Caribbean or Central America. It also depends on how the relationship with the CSA is with the region and the Great Powers having territories there. If Mexico is good with the CSA and the UK tolerates it as well, what can the US do to contain it? Other than sabotage the economy or try to incite a slave rebellion...
 
It's hard to tell if the Union will use the CSA as a pariah to enforce influence in the Caribbean or Central America. It also depends on how the relationship with the CSA is with the region and the Great Powers having territories there. If Mexico is good with the CSA and the UK tolerates it as well, what can the US do to contain it? Other than sabotage the economy or try to incite a slave rebellion...

I think it would partially depend on Confederate expansionism.

The US and Confederacy are going to be on opposite sides with regards to the Vidaurri vs Juarez issue.

The CSA may to try and go for Cuba, Santo Domingo, and Puerto Rico, given the radical ideology of expanding slavery. Filibusters could start running around in Central America.



But I think the very big issue is, what if the CSA ends up in a massive debt to European Creditors? There was a tripartite invasion of Mexico in the 1860s over the issue. There was a warscare over Venezuela in 1902-1903. Ultimately the issue of debts between Latin American states and Europeans resulted in the Roosevelt Corollary. If the US is not going to intervene in the CSA, then the next best thing is controlling all the space around the country to the point that it can easily deny access.
 

Kaze

Banned
They did that in IRL - there was a naval blockade of the confederate ports. That is why they created the CSS Virginia iron-clad.

But I could see the Union using geopolitical process to strangle the south economically, but still buy their cotton under the table.
 
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