A Communist Indonesia

PhilippeO

Banned
seconded Konrad.

regional revolt would erupt. Atjeh would gone Islamist. Sulawesi and Maluku would have civil war between Islamist, Christians, and Communist. Islamic insurgency would be widespread in Java, Borneo, and Sumatra.
 
The question that I have is: how will the communists extend their control over all of Indonesia. There are over 900 inhabitated islands in Indonesia and at least 17,000 all together. Surely this is ripe for an anti-communist insurgengcy to emerge.

seconded Konrad.

regional revolt would erupt. Atjeh would gone Islamist. Sulawesi and Maluku would have civil war between Islamist, Christians, and Communist. Islamic insurgency would be widespread in Java, Borneo, and Sumatra.

The biggest thing is the Navy, Air Force, and Peasant Militia. The former two were reasonably friendly to the PKI; they actually supporting arming the militia interestingly enough. It was the Army that opposed it. If the PKI clearly wins on Java I read those two branches as being likely to side with them as winners. That gives the Communists the ability to project themselves quickly through the rest of the archipelago.

You would most likely see the PKI do the same kind of purging Suharto did to them IOTL to the Islamists and other factions that opposed them.
 
I didn't say I thought it was likely - I said such an alliance would make for a fun ATL.

fasquardon

It will be fun indeed, because IOTL, some prominent Indonesians indeed tried to found a way between socialism and Islam. H.O.S Cokroaminoto opened his book "Islam and Socialism" with the statement "A good Muslim must be a good socialist."(although he refuse communism). One early political activist in Indonesia, Haji Misbach was known as "Red Hajj" because of his preaching than Islam and Communism are compatible.

I suppose things could go either way. There was just under four years between the plebiscite and the OTL 30th of September Coup. The economic implosion that was happening under Sukarno was an issue but they were a hell of a lot better off than Zimbabwe and North Korea in the 90s and 2000s, both of whom made it. They could probably muddle on for that long and an Indonesia that included West Papua/Irian Jaya could go Communist.

And then it could also happen as you say. Reader's imagination, I guess.

If this scenario happened, I could see the west to covertly (or even overtly!) support separatist movement in West Papua.
 
It will be fun indeed, because IOTL, some prominent Indonesians indeed tried to found a way between socialism and Islam. H.O.S Cokroaminoto opened his book "Islam and Socialism" with the statement "A good Muslim must be a good socialist."(although he refuse communism). One early political activist in Indonesia, Haji Misbach was known as "Red Hajj" because of his preaching than Islam and Communism are compatible.



If this scenario happened, I could see the west to covertly (or even overtly!) support separatist movement in West Papua.

Hmm. Large parts of the Arab World tried to do that and came up with Ba'athism and Nasserism. Could you see ideologies very close to that in Indonesia.

Yeah, they'd definitely try to create something like that in West Papua. They tried on Sulawesi and some other islands IOTL when Sukarno was in power.
 
I've thought about this exact same POD before and in particular have always wondered about one aspect. If Indonesia went Communist and there was a conventional WWIII in the 1980s a la Red Storm Rising or John Hackett's World War Three, what would they do in the ensuing conflict?

I wonder about an amphibious invasion of Northern Australia. The Polish military was supposed to launch an amphibious invasion of Denmark if the Cold War ever went hot, and the distance from their ports to Copenhagen is comparable to the distance from a lot of Indonesian Islands to parts of Northern Territory and Cape York (at least if they have West Papua).

Add to that action in the South China Sea (the USSR already had stuff planned there through the forces they had stationed in Vietnam), actions against the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand, etc.
 
I've thought about this exact same POD before and in particular have always wondered about one aspect. If Indonesia went Communist and there was a conventional WWIII in the 1980s a la Red Storm Rising or John Hackett's World War Three, what would they do in the ensuing conflict?

Attacking Sarawak, Pacific SLOC interdiction with their subs and long-range aircraft (even IOTL they had Tu-16s).

I wonder about an amphibious invasion of Northern Australia. The Polish military was supposed to launch an amphibious invasion of Denmark if the Cold War ever went hot, and the distance from their ports to Copenhagen is comparable to the distance from a lot of Indonesian Islands to parts of Northern Territory and Cape York (at least if they have West Papua).

Doubt it'd be feasible. The infrastructure is far, far less built up than it is in Europe, and an inevitably more militarized Australia would undoubtedly station its troops to block off the workable landing sites. Would work far better as a potential threat to tie down Australian troops than to actually implement.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
I've thought about this exact same POD before and in particular have always wondered about one aspect. If Indonesia went Communist and there was a conventional WWIII in the 1980s a la Red Storm Rising or John Hackett's World War Three, what would they do in the ensuing conflict?

I wonder about an amphibious invasion of Northern Australia. The Polish military was supposed to launch an amphibious invasion of Denmark if the Cold War ever went hot, and the distance from their ports to Copenhagen is comparable to the distance from a lot of Indonesian Islands to parts of Northern Territory and Cape York (at least if they have West Papua).

Add to that action in the South China Sea (the USSR already had stuff planned there through the forces they had stationed in Vietnam), actions against the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand, etc.


And this would also be contingent with Communist Indonesia aligning with Moscow rather than Beijing, because in Hackett and Clancy's stories, Red Dawn, and the general circumstances of the time, the presumption was that Beijing would be on Washington's side. If it were and Jakarta were pro-Beijing, it would leave the west alone.

In the mid-60s Sukarno and Aidit were both pro-Beijing and anti-Moscow.

Yet I suppose they could have switched sponsors if they wished. Some other leftist or radical states, like Algeria and South Yemen and maybe Zimbabwe switched from Chinese patronage to Soviet in the 60s or later, probably because the USSR had more to often in terms of aid and protection. So a Communist Indonesia *could* end up on Moscow's side in a WWIII
 
If it happens before 1962,I think we Dutch would get a lot of support in our little undecleared war in Papoe Nieuw-Guinea. From 1950 to 1962 the dutch armed forces fought an war against indonisian infiltrators. We had war planes (hunter jet fighters), navy units and an divison of troops deployed.
 
And this would also be contingent with Communist Indonesia aligning with Moscow rather than Beijing, because in Hackett and Clancy's stories, Red Dawn, and the general circumstances of the time, the presumption was that Beijing would be on Washington's side. If it were and Jakarta were pro-Beijing, it would leave the west alone.

In the mid-60s Sukarno and Aidit were both pro-Beijing and anti-Moscow.

Yet I suppose they could have switched sponsors if they wished. Some other leftist or radical states, like Algeria and South Yemen and maybe Zimbabwe switched from Chinese patronage to Soviet in the 60s or later, probably because the USSR had more to often in terms of aid and protection. So a Communist Indonesia *could* end up on Moscow's side in a WWIII

That was what I figured. IOTL Sukarno took a ton of aid from the Soviets including submarines, Tu-16s, a cruiser, etc. I think saying they were pro-Beijing is pushing it. At the very least they were certainly open to the Soviets. I pictured the PKI doing what the North Koreans did and playing the Chinese and the USSR off against each other to extract as much aid as possible while ultimately remaining in the Soviet camp.
 
Attacking Sarawak, Pacific SLOC interdiction with their subs and long-range aircraft (even IOTL they had Tu-16s).



Doubt it'd be feasible. The infrastructure is far, far less built up than it is in Europe, and an inevitably more militarized Australia would undoubtedly station its troops to block off the workable landing sites. Would work far better as a potential threat to tie down Australian troops than to actually implement.

How do the forces actually stack up? The Danish Defence was a lot smaller overall, but it was also a lot more concentrated because the area it had to defend was much smaller. Northern Australia is a big place, and the Aussies can't be everywhere at once. The Indonesians have the luxury of being able to choose (within certain parameters) where to fight and can thus mass their forces in one area and achieve local superiority. The ADF doesn't know where the attack will hit and has to spread their forces thin.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
How do the forces actually stack up? The Danish Defence was a lot smaller overall, but it was also a lot more concentrated because the area it had to defend was much smaller. Northern Australia is a big place, and the Aussies can't be everywhere at once. The Indonesians have the luxury of being able to choose (within certain parameters) where to fight and can thus mass their forces in one area and achieve local superiority. The ADF doesn't know where the attack will hit and has to spread their forces thin.

Then again, how skilled would the Indonesians be at really doing combined amphibious ops with their Soviet kit? The Indonesians have essentially never been tested in straight up, non-guerrilla, high-intensity war.
 
Then again, how skilled would the Indonesians be at really doing combined amphibious ops with their Soviet kit? The Indonesians have essentially never been tested in straight up, non-guerrilla, high-intensity war.

Everything in alternate history is obviously speculative to a degree but to ballpark it I'd guess that they would be somewhat better than Egypt, Iran, etc. The better Middle Eastern militaries in other words. Sukarno and a lot of the Communist states in Asia did at least to some degree promote on merit and encourage initiative, so that's my basis for making that assertion. That would put them above nearly the entire Middle East, and even then Egypt (after they'd thrown out all their Soviet advisers, which makes it even more impressive) were able to cross the Suez, shatter the Israeli counterattacks, and get into a position to achieve their goals. They were only brought undone by trying to save the extremely incompetent Syrians.

A nation that was better still than that would probably be capable of crossing the Torres Strait and opening some pockets in Cape York, for instance.
 
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