A Communard France?

[Cyclone]

Okay, now I know this tends to be considered ASB, but let's just suppose for a second, that through some combination of leadership, charisma, resources, strategy, relative stability and support that they lacked historically, the Communards end up triumphing over the Republicans, establishing the world's first Socialist state.

Could they survive against Germany somehow? What would be the best strategies for them to use to prevent Germany from running roughshod all over them? Would Germany necessarily attack them? I mean, the really anti-Socialist stuff never came legally until 1878 (when a couple of socialist assassins failed to kill Wilhelm), even if Bismarck hated Socialists. They don't really have much excuse to declare war other than "oh no! socialists!", especially if the Communards take a passive role early on.

 

[Jape]

There were other communes scattered across France that rose at the same time, really your best might be a more industrialised France to get that urban prole demographic strong, though to be fair French peasants were pretty keen to socialism. A bloodier Franco-Prussian War might help too.

Also the Commune was suprisingly moderate and, well, 'polite'. Weeks after the Paris Commune was established they asked banks for loans rather than seize the cash. The only way I can really see the Communards working is if they're more ruthless, more Leninist or Jacobin I suppose.

A wider mutiny of soldiers?

One tough problem is international reaction, if the Commune marches beyond Paris, seizes Versailles and links up with other communes, I think Britain and Germany will be paying careful attention, 1789 and 1917 both show foriegn states don't just ignore revolutionaries calling for global upheval.

 

[Talkie Toaster]

One thing you could do would be to have Blanqui actually present in the Commune rather than being imprisoned at the time. He was elected President-in-absence in OTL so he would likely emerge as a strong leader of the Commune. With his leadership you could probably achieve the increased ruthlessness required for it to be a success, and if you then
use the example of the more successful Paris Commune or simply butterflies to make the Communes in Lyons and Marseilles successful and with a little luck they could perhaps have a chance of winning the Civil War and establishing the "Federation of Revolutionary Communes" they proclaimed in OTL. Whether other powers would form a coalition against them is another matter, of course.

 

[Ofaloaf]

Depending on how quickly the Communards advance through France and how successful they are at it, Germany may or may not intervene. In OTL, Bismarck seems to have used the Paris Commune to force more concessions out of the newborn Third Republic, questioning their legitimacy constantly.

Were the Communards able to defeat the Versaillais, Bismarck would likely either come to a quick agreement with the Third Republic and offer open support against the Communards, likely weakening the Republic's influence domestically in the process and further strengthening the Communards' standing in France, or he'd agree to recognize the Communes and press more concessions out of them. In either scenario, the end result is a French government little-respected by its own people, and a stronger Germany.