A Colombian-Venezuelan Border War before 1900

Basically let's assume ITTL, tensions over the Colombia-Venezuela border heighten to the point that Venezuela occupies the disputed areas and Colombia declares war. Sometime in 1850-1864. For reasons outside of the war Colombia has Costa Rica, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic as allies; leading to a brutal victory against Venezuela.

Following their victory I am trying to figure out exactly what territories Colombia might go after based on their disputes. What I have decided is the annexation of Amazonas, All territory below the Arauca River, and Maracaibo [The modern state of Zulia].

Are these annexations feasible? If not, what territories might be possible to expand Colombia in such a war?
 
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Greetings. Well, to answer your questions and see what is the level of plausibility, is necessary to review the context. Venezuela invading or occupying ANYTHING in purpose during the years 1859-1863 is impossible because at that time the country was embroiled in one of the worst, if not THE worst, civil wars of its young History after Independence: The Federal War (La Guerra Federal). During the decade of the 1850´s, Venezuela was under the nepotist "Monagato"(also know as the Monagas Dynasty or more commonly in Venezuela as the Liberal Oligarchy) of Jose Tadeo Monagas and his brother Jose Gregorio (who is only remembered because of the abolition of slavery and was president because his brother couldn´t be reelected
consecutively without violating the Constitution and creating an open casus belli for overthrowing him). Monagas once opposed the movement for the disolution of Gran Colombia, but him invading New Granada in the name of restoring Bolivar´s dream to rule it himself during the Liberal Oligarchy would be something worthy of the Alien Space Bats. The "Liberal Oligarchy" was a period of "stability" compared with the events that happened earlier, and the governments of the two Monagas were orientated to internal matters (abolition of slavery, a new census,the creation of the National Library, reafirmation of the Right to Free Press) and not external ones (except creation of more consulates and telling the Dutch in 1856 that Isla de Aves is Venezuelan.) In 1857, Jose Tadeo, who was again president, decided to reform the Constitution to, you guess it, get consecutive re-elections (and other things like Universal Suffrage and changing the number of provinces from 13 to 21) and of course, by 1858 the Conservatives and Liberals had joined forces to overthrown him. So, it is not the best period for Venezuela to be the aggressor:Jose Gregorio (1851-1855) was too grey and a figurehead of his brother, the second government of Jose Tadeo was not stable, and after that, Venezuela was not stable, AT ALL.

About the annexations:

*Amazonas: Maybe, because while Caracas doesnt really have the resources (or interest) to defend it, and it wasnt a zone full of Caudillos who could, there is the problem that Bogota also doesnt have them(logistical resources), for conquest and rule. The Best thing they can do is to change flags in the jungle, send some ships to the Orinoco, occupy the only civilized towns and ports, and wait until the troops of New Granada get the treaty signed in Caracas, and that change will only be a fact in the maps for a long time. It is a lot of territory, yes, but undeveloped(even today), and a jungle. Any reason for conquest or defense in a realistic XIXth Century contest would be related to prestige, nothing more, nothing less. (See Guayana Esequiba for an Analogy).

*Below the Arauca river: If it is like the actual frontier between the two countries, yes, it is possible, but more than that? Very difficult. That is the Llanos, a land full of legendary Caudillos,all of them with their own loyal and personal army of llaneros, veterans of the War for Independence, the kind of people that made Pablo Morillo, who fought against the Napoleonic Grande Armée, said that with only one thousand of them he could conquer Europe in the name of Spain. Bogota will need a modern army or local support to get a real win, not a pyrrhic one disolved in guerrillas, and at that time, they didnt have either.

*Zulia: Unless Bogota is offering a much better deal than Caracas during one of those conflicts between Maracaibo and the Capital, the answer is NO. While it wasnt as important as it is now, Maracaibo was one of the most important ports of the Republic and one of the richest provinces of Venezuela. New Granada can try get it in the peace treaty, but only after occupying Caracas first. Maracaibo will resist, and Venezuela will send all of its might (or at least, what they can) to defend it. After that, Maracaibo will remain something of a headache to any central government in Colombia for a time, and while it is not as plausible as Panama, the idea of a great power fomenting an independence movement when all that oil gets discovered can happen if that conflict isnt solved. (Maracaibo and Caracas during the XIXth Century had a lot of fights and one or two sublevations about control of the port profits and the level of autonomy that Maracaibo should get in the country.)

*BONUS-Tachira and the Andean states: While you didnt mention it, an annexation of at least, modern Tachira State is possible. The andean states where somewhat forgotten by the governments in Caracas, and there was people promoting the idea of seccession from Venezuela to join Colombia during the second half of the XIXth Century. Of Course, that ended when the "gochos" decided to get Caracas to care about them by ruling it (The Era of Cipriano Castro, Juan Vicente Gomez, Eleazar Lopez Contreras and Isaias Medina Angarita).

About the War:
I am sorry to say that, but for me, that is the most implausible thing in all the post.
First, Colombia during that period is probably more instable that Venezuela: Panama experimented with secession in 1850 and it got civil wars in 1851,1853,1854,1860-1862.
Second, the Allies:
*Santo Domingo was from 1861 to 1865 re-annexed to Spain. And before that I dont think they had the resources to send troops to Venezuela.
*Ecuador was "stable" after 1852, but was invaded by Peru in the period 1858-1860. You have a window there to get them to to support New Granada in a war, but probably that only gives a signal for the peruvians to strike early.
*Costa Rica is the most stable of all but it never was a military power, so the support that they can give might not be enough. De facto, it is still a New Granada vs Venezuela fight, and Venezuela has the advantage of the military forces with the most experience.

My recomendations are:
*Change the date of the War. It can be in the 1840´s, a period when New Granada and Venezuela where more stable and there was the first discussion about the frontier. Or in the 1890´s before the 100 Days War in Colombia, because of a failure in the Spanish Arbitration award of 1891. The difficult thing is to get a moment when Venezuela is weak, Colombia isnt, and the two of them are not in a civil war in the XIXth Century.
*If it must be in that period of time, you can use the Civil wars of the 1860´s. In Colombia, by 1862, the liberals won under Tomás Cipriano de Mosquera, who was one of those people who still remembered fondly the dream of Gran Colombia and had power to do something about it. He talked with Antonio Leocadio Guzman, father of Antonio Guzman Blanco (the two of them prominent leaders in the Federal side of the Federal War in Venezuela), about the idea of restoring Gran Colombia between the liberals of New Granada and Venezuela. Antonio Leocadio was convinced, but he was a civilian leader, not a caudillo or a military man, and his influence was waining. He couldn´t convince his own son about the project, so it didnt go anywhere. If Antonio Leocadio Guzmán were succesful in convincing his son and Marshal Juan Crisostomo Falcón (The leaders of the Federals) and the Federals win the War as in OTL, you could get Colombia to annex not only Arauca, Amazonas or Maracaibo, but all of Venezuela!

I wish that this opinion (my first participation in this forum) was useful. Good luck with your timeline idea.
 
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I wish that this opinion (my first participation in this forum) was useful. Good luck with your timeline idea.

Thank you very much for the input; I don't really know just too much about south american history, so this was very helpful! Hope you enjoy the forums.
 
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