Let's say Powell, or rather his wife, is a bit more equivocal in 1996. He doesn't enter the race in the primaries. But even once Dole had won the nomination, there was still talk of drafting Powell in as a running mate. Indeed, polls showed that Dole/Powell was a considerably more competitive ticket. So let's say Mrs. Powell isn't as adamant as she was historically. Dole's people manage to convince Powell to accept the Vice Presidential nomination. Dole/Powell loses to Bill Clinton, but the election is narrower than expected, and Powell's presence on the ticket is credited with helping the Dole campaign achieve a better than expected result in GOP circles. That makes him even more respected among party insiders. Powell is now the next in line and he has establishment support. His moderate political stances hurt Powell in the primaries, but his establishment backing and left over good feeling from 1996 allow him to win. That might be helped by a lack of strong opposition, maybe Bush decides to stay out and the conservative vote is divided among rather obscure candidates. Powell/McCain defeats Gore/Lieberman solidly.