A Colin Powell run for President?

Let's say Powell, or rather his wife, is a bit more equivocal in 1996. He doesn't enter the race in the primaries. But even once Dole had won the nomination, there was still talk of drafting Powell in as a running mate. Indeed, polls showed that Dole/Powell was a considerably more competitive ticket. So let's say Mrs. Powell isn't as adamant as she was historically. Dole's people manage to convince Powell to accept the Vice Presidential nomination. Dole/Powell loses to Bill Clinton, but the election is narrower than expected, and Powell's presence on the ticket is credited with helping the Dole campaign achieve a better than expected result in GOP circles. That makes him even more respected among party insiders. Powell is now the next in line and he has establishment support. His moderate political stances hurt Powell in the primaries, but his establishment backing and left over good feeling from 1996 allow him to win. That might be helped by a lack of strong opposition, maybe Bush decides to stay out and the conservative vote is divided among rather obscure candidates. Powell/McCain defeats Gore/Lieberman solidly.
 
Let's say Powell, or rather his wife, is a bit more equivocal in 1996. He doesn't enter the race in the primaries. But even once Dole had won the nomination, there was still talk of drafting Powell in as a running mate. Indeed, polls showed that Dole/Powell was a considerably more competitive ticket. So let's say Mrs. Powell isn't as adamant as she was historically. Dole's people manage to convince Powell to accept the Vice Presidential nomination. Dole/Powell loses to Bill Clinton, but the election is narrower than expected, and Powell's presence on the ticket is credited with helping the Dole campaign achieve a better than expected result in GOP circles. That makes him even more respected among party insiders. Powell is now the next in line and he has establishment support. His moderate political stances hurt Powell in the primaries, but his establishment backing and left over good feeling from 1996 allow him to win. That might be helped by a lack of strong opposition, maybe Bush decides to stay out and the conservative vote is divided among rather obscure candidates. Powell/McCain defeats Gore/Lieberman solidly.

What does McCain bring to the ticket? He is worse than moderate. He is a Rhino with a history of not only outflanking conservatives in the Senate, but actually mocking them.

Hell, Ann COulter was so anti-McCain that she endorsed Hillary Clinton!
 
What does McCain bring to the ticket? He is worse than moderate. He is a Rhino with a history of not only outflanking conservatives in the Senate, but actually mocking them.

Hell, Ann COulter was so anti-McCain that she endorsed Hillary Clinton!

There is no difference in my experience, in the conservative viewpoint, between that odious term and someone who would to outsiders be considered a moderate. The word is nothing more than an insult directed against Republicans who fail a conservative litmus test. It doesn't have any more meaning or legitimacy than that. Sorry, this is a kind of personal pet peeve of mine.

With my little rant over, you're probably right that McCain's nomination is a mistake for precisely the reasons you suggest. I was going for vague ideological consistency. Indeed, McCain's perceived hostility towards the conservative wing of the Republican party is a reason I initially chose him as a running mate given Powell's moderate views. But then again, Powell would need to reinforce his support from the base, so he probably would need a more ideologically conservative running mate.
 
There is no difference in my experience, in the conservative viewpoint, between that odious term and someone who would to outsiders be considered a moderate. The word is nothing more than an insult directed against Republicans who fail a conservative litmus test. It doesn't have any more meaning or legitimacy than that. Sorry, this is a kind of personal pet peeve of mine.

With my little rant over, you're probably right that McCain's nomination is a mistake for precisely the reasons you suggest. I was going for vague ideological consistency. Indeed, McCain's perceived hostility towards the conservative wing of the Republican party is a reason I initially chose him as a running mate given Powell's moderate views. But then again, Powell would need to reinforce his support from the base, so he probably would need a more ideologically conservative running mate.

No need to quibble over defintions, since we are talking about perceptions from the conservative base and/or conservative demcrates.

Checked out Steve Forbes on social issues, on Wikepedia.

In his 2000 campaign, Forbes professed his support for social conservatism along with his supply-side economics. Despite holding opposite positions in 1996, for the 2000 campaign, Forbes announced he was adamantly opposed to abortion and supported prayer in public schools. The

So appearently he was moderate on social issues in 96.:(

THought so, but thought I would double check.
 
The problem with anyone running against Clinton in ’96 is that he is an incumbent with the economy doing well and nothing going particularly wrong in the country.

Powell’s best move would have been to wait to 2000 and run against Gore; and crush him.

True, but Powell would be running as the first African American candidate for President. Since blacks are a key part of the Democrat base, Clinton even with the advantages of incumbency and a good economy, would have a real hard time keeping blacks as a group in his corner. Even a loss of half of the black vote would make his reelection impossible. IOTL, Clinton got 49.2% of the vote against a very lackluster Dole. Perot might or might not run in '96, but I suspect he might have sat this one out if Kemp was out there speaking to the same budget issues as Perot did. Also , of the GOP pols, Kemp did well in addressing issues like housing that concerned the black community. Powell-Kemp would most likely have won handily, by including Blue states like New York and New Jersey
 
True, but Powell would be running as the first African American candidate for President. Since blacks are a key part of the Democrat base, Clinton even with the advantages of incumbency and a good economy, would have a real hard time keeping blacks as a group in his corner. Even a loss of half of the black vote would make his reelection impossible. IOTL, Clinton got 49.2% of the vote against a very lackluster Dole. Perot might or might not run in '96, but I suspect he might have sat this one out if Kemp was out there speaking to the same budget issues as Perot did. Also , of the GOP pols, Kemp did well in addressing issues like housing that concerned the black community. Powell-Kemp would most likely have won handily, by including Blue states like New York and New Jersey

Powell and Kemp are both from New York.
 
Originally yes, but were either of them resident in NY in 1996? Powell was an Army guy, then a member of the Bush administration, so his place of birth is not of the greatest importance. Chances are either Powell or Kemp my have owned a house in Virginia, although I haven't checked. Besides, these days politicians routinely claim residences for political purposes, even when they have no roots there. Ike was born in Kansas. Did many people think of him as a Kansan?
 
Originally yes, but were either of them resident in NY in 1996? Powell was an Army guy, then a member of the Bush administration, so his place of birth is not of the greatest importance. Chances are either Powell or Kemp my have owned a house in Virginia, although I haven't checked. Besides, these days politicians routinely claim residences for political purposes, even when they have no roots there. Ike was born in Kansas. Did many people think of him as a Kansan?

"The man from Abilene" was widely regarded as a Kansan. Frank Carlson sure thought that Ike was a Kansan. Furthermore, Eisenhower was born in Texas, but his family was rooted in Kansas where he was raised.
 
Powell and Kemp are both from New York.

mmm but I seem to recall that Powell's official residence was Virginia. not sure though.



well most plausible plot so far is Powell runs as part of DOLE/POWELL 96. barely loses. probably due to third and fourth parties led by Perot and Buchanan.


Powell is the establishment choice in 2000 BUT the GOP is now in the middle of an ideological civil war. GWB probably comes out as a full blooded religious candidate in the primaries. if Powell win he may have to bring Bush also as VP.

Powell/Bush 2000.

if the religious right in in open confratation with the main GOP 1996-2000 then impeachment may not happen and Gore may feel less need to go with Lieberman.

Gore/Kerry 2000 or Gore /Edwards 2000.
 
Fine, Where exactly did Powell and Kemp call home in 1996? Powell had been chairman of JCS, so presumably he lived in Alexandria or somewhere in the Beltway, which was my only point. Ike was probably a bad example. Ike could have been from anywhere and it wouldn't have made a difference. By the way, when he ran in 1952 he was President of Columbia University and lived in New York.

Obama was from Hawaii, but his political roots are Chicago. Hillary Clinton was Senator from New York, but her roots were Illinois and Arkansas. RFK claimed to be a New Yorker based on a townhouse his family owned in Manhattan even though he was undeniably a New Englander, William F. Buckley, Jr. of Sharon, Connecticut ran for Mayor of New York based on his townhouse in NY etc. etc. etc.
 
Top